Brexit Paper Loss

[Badger]

Up about 1.5% Friday and 5.9% YTD.

 

[Doribe]

My total portfolio is down 1.2%, stocks only portfolio is down 2.2%. I plan on hanging on for the ride and adding to my international position sometime in the near future.

 

[Meadbh]

From the Globe and Mail:

My post-Brexit investing plan revealed - The Globe and Mail

 

[NYEXPAT]

Double Wow, they must have been all in bonds, but they were only up 0.55%.

My VWIAX/VWENX mix performed as expected with a loss of 1.73%. The only model portfolio that came close was the Paul Merriman model which took a loss of 1.76% with more foreign exposure. I see the three fund VG portfolio's did not fare as well.

My VG portfolio with these two funds is about 50/50 and provides about 50% exposure to LCV equities, and provides a moderate standard deviation that I can sleep on. I know there are others out there with this same allocation. I feel fortunate to have moved to this allocation prior to my retirement this year.

Cash and SDS.

 

[FUEGO]

Down about 5% for the day. $72k. Almost 100% stock portfolio.

Future plans include more doing nothing, collecting dividends, and relying on my cash reserves if this puppy keeps dropping. Around 2019 I might start getting concerned. Fortunately I was too busy Friday to pay much attention to the market, but I knew it was going to be butt ugly since I happened to catch the Brexit news Thursday night pretty late (and got to enjoy watching the GBP/USD exchange rate drop a penny every time I hit "refresh").

The upside is I get $32k in a rollover from my ESOP sometime in the next few months, so a downturn isn't completely unwelcome. The $32k amount is already locked in based on 12/31/2015 valuations.

 

[ERD50]

Yawn.

January/February was way worse.

Yep (well, I assume so, I didn't bother to look )

I just want to scream every time I hear some TV/radio spot where they say "the average 401K is down $X,XXX!" I guess the headline " The average 401K is higher than it was 6 weeks ago" just wouldn't do?

-ERD50

 

[audreyh1]

Yep (well, I assume so, I didn't bother to look )

I just want to scream every time I hear some TV/radio spot where they say "the average 401K is down $X,XXX!" I guess the headline " The average 401K is higher than it was 6 weeks ago" just wouldn't do?

-ERD50

Yep. Just gotta scream the most intense stuff they can think of. Forget about perspective.

 

[jon-nyc]

My portfolio(65/35) took a hit of 101K...about 3.5% loss.
What was yours?
I am planning to ride this out as usual. Will rebalance next month if AA is off by 5%.


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum

Oddly mine was more like 1.5% on a similar top-level AA.

 

[gcgang]

Down 2.74% from Thurs-Fri, still UP 4.28% for the year to date.....

It'll come back..it always does!!!!

http://www.forecast-chart.com/historical-nikkei-225.html

Always, maybe. But, in some cases (Japan), it might take longer than my daughters lifetime.

The complacency of this board worries me.

 

[DrRoy]

I did not calculate it but would estimate 2 1/3%. I think this correction is less significant because it is less directly connected to economic data than what "might" happen. More of a pure emotional thing.

 

[UtahSkier]

Don't know the percentage... just know that the portfolio returned to its value on 5/21/16.
So, the run up to Brexit was lost.

 

[tulak]

http://www.forecast-chart.com/historical-nikkei-225.html



Always, maybe. But, in some cases (Japan), it might take longer than my daughters lifetime.



The complacency of this board worries me.

What's the alternative?

Maybe this will be bad, maybe it won't. History has shown both. There's plenty of markets that never recovered. That's why you diversify.

Odds of a complete collapse of all
global markets seems very unlikely. And if it does happen, then I doubt we'll be worrying about our portfolios.

 

[RetireAge50]

I did not lose any paper but our portfolio went down 3.33%

 

[lhamo]

We were up roughly $12k on Thursday (to a new high for investment accounts in 2016), and then down roughly $33k on Friday.

We are about to sign a contract on the sale of our apartment in Beijing, which should net us roughly $2 million after paying off the mortgage and paying US capital gains. Up to $1 million of that will purchase us a new house in Seattle sometime in the next year (hopefully -- market is insane here, too). I'll probably keep 2-3 years of projected living expenses in relatively liquid accounts, planning to invest the rest and live primarily off the dividends. We already have just over 1 million in retirement/kids college/other investments and savings. So from our position, now is actually a great time for the markets to be tanking as we will have plenty of "dry powder" to work with in the coming months. We ended up being accidental dirty market timers from 2009-2013 (bought Beijing property at bottom of dip in local market in 2009, then maxed out retirement accounts until we decided to put kids in a more expensive/better quality school), so kind of hoping we can replicate that on the next market downturn/run up. Will be fine financially either way -- both RIP and Firecalc show excellent results, with my net worth at age 100 being anywhere from 3-50 million.

 

[RAE]

Any conclusion is not going to be rapid. It's going to be a drawn out process.

Yeah, that is what makes this event different from some others, at least in my mind. Just the negotiations between the UK and the EU to work out the terms of the exit will take at least 2 years, they say......and I've seen estimates much longer than that. Lots and lots of uncertainty over how this will all play out, which I think is going to have the markets on edge for a long while to come.

 

[CabinLifeAt50]

Down only about 1.4%, up about 14% for the year still. high quality dividend paying stocks.

 

[COcheesehead]

What's the alternative?

Maybe this will be bad, maybe it won't. History has shown both. There's plenty of markets that never recovered. That's why you diversify.

Odds of a complete collapse of all
global markets seems very unlikely. And if it does happen, then I doubt we'll be worrying about our portfolios.

The alternative?
Review what held up on Friday and what fell more than the indexes. Rebalance toward the winners because there's more excrement to hit the fan.

 

[JPatrick]

Lost about 2.8%, but thanks to a large switch to munis last year, there was a bit of green to be seen. My good buddy VIXY was up a mere 24% so that felt good. All my VIXY holdings have July calls written at 9,10,11, and 12 so it is too early to see how that story will end.

 

[COcheesehead]

Lost about 2.8%, but thanks to a large switch to munis last year, there was a bit of green to be seen. My good buddy VIXY was up a mere 24% so that felt good. All my VIXY holdings have July calls written at 9,10,11, and 12 so it is too early to see how that story will end.

Muni's and high yield muni's have been a big bright spot over the last year or two.

 

[COcheesehead]

Lost about 2.8%, but thanks to a large switch to munis last year, there was a bit of green to be seen. My good buddy VIXY was up a mere 24% so that felt good. All my VIXY holdings have July calls written at 9,10,11, and 12 so it is too early to see how that story will end.

Just looked at VIXY. Down 34+% YTD. Ouch.

 

[JPatrick]

Just looked at VIXY. Down 34+% YTD. Ouch.

Yes, but the big swings are the beauty of it. Combined with SVXY and the deployment of covered calls, it is not as risky as it may seem. I currently only own VIXY. This certainly is not a buy and hold situation, but rather a playground for dirty rotten market timers.

 

[COcheesehead]

Yes, but the big swings are the beauty of it. Combined with SVXY and the deployment of covered calls, it is not as risky as it may seem. I currently only own VIXY. This certainly is not a buy and hold situation, but rather a playground for dirty rotten market timers.

Hope you're good at time'n.

 

[JPatrick]

Hope you're good at time'n.

When you are timing the entire S&P it is a little easier than some small cap stock. Plus you have (hopefully) a 6-7% option premium to help. With the call expiring in perhaps 4 weeks you have a little time on your side. If it is called away that's fine..The current times are a great example. I think we probably will be able to say (this week) that it is a safe bet that the market will likely be higher or stable in 3 or 4 weeks--seems like an easy call. All we really care about is that we don't have a major drop from here that persists for a month.

 

[COcheesehead]

When you are timing the entire S&P it is a little easier than some small cap stock. Plus you have (hopefully) a 6-7% option premium to help. With the call expiring in perhaps 4 weeks you have a little time on your side. If it is called away that's fine..The current times are a great example. I think we probably will be able to say (this week) that it is a safe bet that the market will likely be higher or stable in 3 or 4 weeks--seems like an easy call. All we really care about is that we don't have a major drop from here that persists for a month.

I just get queasy when someone says they know the future.

 

[REWahoo]

I think we probably will be able to say (this week) that it is a safe bet that the market will likely be higher or [-]stable[/-] lower in 3 or 4 weeks--seems like an easy call.

FIFY