Brexit Paper Loss

[UtahSkier]

Don't know the percentage... just know that the portfolio returned to its value on 5/21/16.
So, the run up to Brexit was lost.

[tulak]

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcgang http://www.forecast-chart.com/historical-nikkei-225.html Always, maybe. But, in some cases (Japan), it might take longer than my daughters lifetime. The complacency of this board worries me.

What's the alternative?

Maybe this will be bad, maybe it won't. History has shown both. There's plenty of markets that never recovered. That's why you diversify.

Odds of a complete collapse of all
global markets seems very unlikely. And if it does happen, then I doubt we'll be worrying about our portfolios.

[RetireAge50]

I did not lose any paper but our portfolio went down 3.33%

[lhamo]

We were up roughly $12k on Thursday (to a new high for investment accounts in 2016), and then down roughly $33k on Friday.

We are about to sign a contract on the sale of our apartment in Beijing, which should net us roughly $2 million after paying off the mortgage and paying US capital gains. Up to $1 million of that will purchase us a new house in Seattle sometime in the next year (hopefully -- market is insane here, too). I'll probably keep 2-3 years of projected living expenses in relatively liquid accounts, planning to invest the rest and live primarily off the dividends. We already have just over 1 million in retirement/kids college/other investments and savings. So from our position, now is actually a great time for the markets to be tanking as we will have plenty of "dry powder" to work with in the coming months. We ended up being accidental dirty market timers from 2009-2013 (bought Beijing property at bottom of dip in local market in 2009, then maxed out retirement accounts until we decided to put kids in a more expensive/better quality school), so kind of hoping we can replicate that on the next market downturn/run up. Will be fine financially either way -- both RIP and Firecalc show excellent results, with my net worth at age 100 being anywhere from 3-50 million.

[RAE]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 Any conclusion is not going to be rapid. It's going to be a drawn out process.

Yeah, that is what makes this event different from some others, at least in my mind. Just the negotiations between the UK and the EU to work out the terms of the exit will take at least 2 years, they say......and I've seen estimates much longer than that. Lots and lots of uncertainty over how this will all play out, which I think is going to have the markets on edge for a long while to come.

[CabinLifeAt50]

Down only about 1.4%, up about 14% for the year still. high quality dividend paying stocks.

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by tulak What's the alternative? Maybe this will be bad, maybe it won't. History has shown both. There's plenty of markets that never recovered. That's why you diversify. Odds of a complete collapse of all global markets seems very unlikely. And if it does happen, then I doubt we'll be worrying about our portfolios.

The alternative?
Review what held up on Friday and what fell more than the indexes. Rebalance toward the winners because there's more excrement to hit the fan.

[JPatrick]

Lost about 2.8%, but thanks to a large switch to munis last year, there was a bit of green to be seen. My good buddy VIXY was up a mere 24% so that felt good. All my VIXY holdings have July calls written at 9,10,11, and 12 so it is too early to see how that story will end.

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPatrick Lost about 2.8%, but thanks to a large switch to munis last year, there was a bit of green to be seen. My good buddy VIXY was up a mere 24% so that felt good. All my VIXY holdings have July calls written at 9,10,11, and 12 so it is too early to see how that story will end.

Muni's and high yield muni's have been a big bright spot over the last year or two.

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPatrick Lost about 2.8%, but thanks to a large switch to munis last year, there was a bit of green to be seen. My good buddy VIXY was up a mere 24% so that felt good. All my VIXY holdings have July calls written at 9,10,11, and 12 so it is too early to see how that story will end.

Just looked at VIXY. Down 34+% YTD. Ouch.

[JPatrick]

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead Just looked at VIXY. Down 34+% YTD. Ouch.

Yes, but the big swings are the beauty of it. Combined with SVXY and the deployment of covered calls, it is not as risky as it may seem. I currently only own VIXY. This certainly is not a buy and hold situation, but rather a playground for dirty rotten market timers.

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPatrick Yes, but the big swings are the beauty of it. Combined with SVXY and the deployment of covered calls, it is not as risky as it may seem. I currently only own VIXY. This certainly is not a buy and hold situation, but rather a playground for dirty rotten market timers.

Hope you're good at time'n.

[JPatrick]

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead Hope you're good at time'n.

When you are timing the entire S&P it is a little easier than some small cap stock. Plus you have (hopefully) a 6-7% option premium to help. With the call expiring in perhaps 4 weeks you have a little time on your side. If it is called away that's fine..The current times are a great example. I think we probably will be able to say (this week) that it is a safe bet that the market will likely be higher or stable in 3 or 4 weeks--seems like an easy call. All we really care about is that we don't have a major drop from here that persists for a month.

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPatrick When you are timing the entire S&P it is a little easier than some small cap stock. Plus you have (hopefully) a 6-7% option premium to help. With the call expiring in perhaps 4 weeks you have a little time on your side. If it is called away that's fine..The current times are a great example. I think we probably will be able to say (this week) that it is a safe bet that the market will likely be higher or stable in 3 or 4 weeks--seems like an easy call. All we really care about is that we don't have a major drop from here that persists for a month.

I just get queasy when someone says they know the future.

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPatrick I think we probably will be able to say (this week) that it is a safe bet that the market will likely be higher or stable lower in 3 or 4 weeks--seems like an easy call.

FIFY

[JPatrick]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo FIFY

Ummmm, actually you need to bet on the price at option expiration, in our example that is July 15. To win we need the market to be unchanged to higher on, or slightly before that date. Even a modest decline would be acceptable, but my bet is for unchanged or higher.

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPatrick Ummmm, actually you need to bet...

You know I don't bet! I don't even buy green bananas...

[JPatrick]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo You know I don't bet! I don't even buy green bananas...

If I had all those snakes and scorpions surrounding me, I wouldn't buy green bananas either.

[easysurfer]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPatrick If I had all those snakes and scorpions surrounding me, I wouldn't buy green bananas either.

Green bananas are the ones I buy.

[OrcasIslandBound]

Down 1.23% for the day overall as the stock portion was offset by the day increase of 1.27% long term bonds increase (BLV).


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