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Old 08-09-2016, 11:52 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by haha View Post
...I have only one horse in this race, and I am on him.

I am anxious for the same reasons, ha. As you know, I hurt myself in O&G.

As it happens, I have a fair cash position for the moment for conversion to Roths, but what to do next? My remaining equities are mostly in SCV.

Basically awaiting developments.

I dunno about a 1,200 year event, but this does seem to be uncharted territory though. Everything seems to have the same high valuation. If it is a bubble, it is a big one.


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Old 08-09-2016, 12:21 PM   #62
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I'm not sure the word "bubble" is appropriate. General temperament is far more cautious in most areas than it was in 2000 or 2008. What may be more appropriate is "due". Due for a true Bear (20%+) in equities.

As an accumulator, I say, "One can only hope!"

I recently cashed out a little bit in my Roth to hold for buying opportunities, and stopped the automatic VTSAX investment in same account. So in a small way, I'm betting on being close to the top in that one account. The reality is I'm just trying to build a little bit of capital to work on some individual value stock investing. (It is NOT currently a good time to start that strategy!)
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Old 08-10-2016, 08:45 AM   #63
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Originally Posted by Hamlet View Post
Yeah, I bought my first Berkshire class B share during that bubble, and it was priced at an extremely attractive valuation. Likewise with a bunch of "old economy" stuff like Allstate, REITs, Target, etc. It was a crazy market, but there were plenty of cheap stocks available.

These days, nothing I follow appears to be cheap.
Maybe not in the US, but there are still markets, even developed ones, that are closer to their average historical valuation: Global Stock Market Valuation Ratios (Shiller PE, CAPE, PB...)

Personally, I am heavily invested in the Eurostoxx600 and MSCI Emerging Markets indices, in addition to the MSCI World. But that's just my normal asset allocation and not due to the current market situation. And I will readily admit that my asset allocation has underperformed in recent years.
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Old 08-10-2016, 10:27 AM   #64
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So, I re-arranged my portfolio a few months ago. I used to be essentially all in on cyclicals (MLPs specifically) thinking oil would "normalize", but after three years of being wrong I threw in the towel for a relatively small loss.

So I have tried to diversify things a bit even though I am still 80% or more stocks. I am using equity CEFs broken up into roughly three categories: (1) standard equity CEFs that use leverage and are roughly 80/20 AA. (2) conservative equity CEFs that are roughly 50/50 qualified common/preferred stocks, also using leverage, and purposely keep a positive UNII to grow distribution yearly, and lastly (3) covered call equity CEFs that do not use any leverage.

All CEFs are tax-managed, paying primarily qualified divs, long term capital gains, or ROC (primarily the covered call CEFs). I'm also roughly 50/50 for US focused vs global focused equity CEFs.

I do plan to add MLPs back in at some point, along with muni CEFs. Possibly I will even add non-tax advantaged stuff like equity/mortgage REITs, BDCs, and high yield, but I'm leaning towards keeping it 100% tax efficient for now. This is in a taxable brokerage account. 401k and Roth IRA are in vanguard target retirement income fund and vanguard managed payout fund respectively.

I don't know if there is a bubble or not, but I plan to stay fully invested and just roll with whatever happens. I've decided to keep working full time at least another five years (age 45). I'll have 20 years in gov pension by then. Worst case scenario I have to stick around 10 more years after that and retire at 55 on the pension.

Its possible ER from savings/investing will not be possible for me, which will mean I chose wisely when I decided to get a gov job 15 years ago, but chose poorly to save money instead of spending it while younger.
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