donheff said:
Rich -- this sounds like you would spend down the cash even if the market is booming. Is that true? If so, what happens if the market crashes 40% just when you are spending your last dollar of cash? Now you would have to sell in a down market to generate cash to refill the buckets.
Don, you self-annuitize the cash in bucket 1. That takes, say, 7 years. That is historically long enough to allow the bucket 2 investments (by their nature, e.g. intermed bonds, etc.) to supply the next 7 years with low risk of loss over that duration. By then your stocks have been untouched over a period long enough to have largely neutralized volatility risk (historically backtested).
14 years of average growth (e.g. 10%, perhaps a bit less) will have doubled your bucket 3 investment. A 40% doomsday hit at that moment in time would obviously be a bad thing for everyone, but even that would be against the backdrop of a prettty big nest egg
14 years into retirement, with SS, etc. all well in place and the biggest expense years probably behind you. Short of a doomsday scenario, you'd be in pretty good shape.
During the first 14 years, you would be rebalancing your buckets in a specific way. If you're gonna talk about a 40% drop, you also have to assume a 40% gain somewhere in there. That money gets partially pruned into Bucket 2 to partially replenish your purchasing power and/or from B2 to B1 to buy even further peace of mind, so that you could sustain an even longer drought without having to sell low. I've twisted this thing inside out a number of times and with a little improvisation and sticking to a 4-4.25% SWR, it works for me. It's not infallible but it would take monumental bad times to break it if it's built right and expenses are monitored.
Lucia does
not do a good job of explaining how you rebalance among buckets. He seems to think that only a financial advisor should tackle such challanges
. But if you read between the lines (esp in his latest book), it's stuff most of us here can do easily.
Hope that's helpful.
P.S. I like the idea of sliding into FIRE with a bundle of cash in my portfolio so I'm immune to the dreaded early bear market syndrome; if the bear stays away, it gives me even more time and money to play with, but if it happens I'm not needing to sell low and early.