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07-29-2006, 03:00 PM
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#1
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 859
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Bullish or Bearish?
Lets make a few bullish/bearish predictions about various asset classes.
I'll start. Here are my predictions.
Bullish:
Large Cap stocks Low P/E & flush with cash
Oil Its tough love, but people can learn to like $3.00/gal gas.
Power Soon every house in America will have AC, even in Alaska.
Neutral:
Foreign Stocks Overpriced but look for a 2nd wind
Bearish:
Small Caps A great run up, but now way overpriced
Hedge funds The zero sum game has found its last few suckers.
Gold After all the excitement, the yellow stuff got no real use.
Housing Silly money chasing silly prices time for a reality check
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07-29-2006, 03:18 PM
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#2
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 718
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Re: Bullish or Bearish?
I agree. However Ill remain spread out and well diversified. Im not going to go chase the golden goose
Except I would say I am a bit Bullish on the foreign game.
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07-29-2006, 04:00 PM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 7,677
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Re: Bullish or Bearish?
I disagree with small caps. Shop carefully, There are always some home runs to be had and these will finance those wonderful luxury trips. Otherwise I think you are spot on. I would add primary metals as some continued growth potential once their correction is complete.
Watch out for the financial sector. Housing could drag it down. As well as the decline in lending generally.
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For the fun of it...Keith
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07-29-2006, 07:20 PM
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#4
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Re: Bullish or Bearish?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mwsinron
Except I would say I am a bit Bullish on the foreign game.
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I'm about 10% in Foreign. But I bought in late at the start of this year, so I missed the big gains of the two years before. I hoping for a good run up later this year or the next year.
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07-29-2006, 07:30 PM
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#5
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Re: Bullish or Bearish?
Quote:
Originally Posted by kcowan
I disagree with small caps. Shop carefully, There are always some home runs to be had and these will finance those wonderful luxury trips. Otherwise I think you are spot on. I would add primary metals as some continued growth potential once their correction is complete.
Watch out for the financial sector. Housing could drag it down. As well as the decline in lending generally.
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I really missed the boat with small caps, and now I afraid to buy in because of the prices.
I sure hope housing manages to have a "soft" landing. As you mentioned, people walking from their loans will just leave the banks holding lots of bad debt.
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07-29-2006, 08:03 PM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
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Re: Bullish or Bearish?
Neither one - my fear is mucking along for a while sideways - with no clear trend. I did notice more foriegn creeping into my Target Retirement.
My mad money - large cap growth - er ah my version emphasizing div growth over current div and boring stuff like Budweiser, Walmart, Coke maybe a little Ford for excitement. With the dollar in the dumper we are getting value priced relative to stronger currencies.
Of course I'm usually wrong.
heh heh heh
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07-29-2006, 08:45 PM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
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Re: Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish on technolgy and financial sectors?
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May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
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07-29-2006, 09:05 PM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Portland, Oregon
Posts: 7,113
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Re: Bullish or Bearish?
Mucking along sideways suits me fine. Looking forward we need to digest the huge increase in oil prices and the middle east issues. A lot for the equity market to chew, IMHO.
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Duck bjorn.
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07-29-2006, 09:12 PM
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#9
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Re: Bullish or Bearish?
Whats to digest about the middle east? Its always a cesspool of violence and unpredictability. You might be right about oil though. But last I heard Americans were using more oil rather than cutting back. So it appears that prices arent really bothering people.
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07-29-2006, 09:36 PM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Portland, Oregon
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Re: Bullish or Bearish?
It's the middle east issues that brought us 9/11, hence Iraq and the huge costs there. Lighting up the oil depots there is easy, with a huge impact on energy costs is the developed world. That risk gives Russia leverage. need I continue?
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Duck bjorn.
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07-29-2006, 10:07 PM
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#11
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Re: Bullish or Bearish?
Well you can continue if you like. However the fact remains the Middle East has always been a big pot of trouble. The market has always figured it into the equation. Im a bit more worried about an Asian blow up of some kind myself.
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07-29-2006, 10:54 PM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
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Re: Bullish or Bearish?
C'mon.* You guys call yourselves bears?
We all know that bad things come in threes, right?
1) Housing crash (consumer spending drys up, millions in housing-related sectors lose their jobs, we kick off a 20-year long recession)
2) Temperatures continue to hit new records (nation-wide drought, food and energy prices skyrocket, rolling blackouts everywhere)
3) And then China takes back Taiwan!* (our troups will still be tied up in Iraq, consumer electronics and green tea prices skyrocket!)
Heh.* *And I didn't even need to use my peak-oil or bird-flu cards.*
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07-29-2006, 10:55 PM
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#13
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Join Date: May 2006
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Re: Bullish or Bearish?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanky
Bullish on technolgy and financial sectors?
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I'm neutral on Tech at current level. Need to see a increase in IT spending. Companies got the money for it, but theres no payoff to expand or upgrade right now.
I'm mild Bullish on Financials. I-Rate will stablilze. Help keep the loan default rate under control. I see CC balances going down as people catch up & pay off loans.
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07-30-2006, 07:27 PM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
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Re: Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish on the long-run.
Whocaresish on the short-run.
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Retired early, traveling perpetually.
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07-30-2006, 08:29 PM
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#15
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Re: Bullish or Bearish?
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3 Yrs to Go
Bullish on the long-run.
Whocaresish on the short-run.
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My feelings exactly...
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07-30-2006, 08:47 PM
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#16
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Join Date: Jun 2006
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Re: Bullish or Bearish?
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3 Yrs to Go
Bullish on the long-run.
Whocaresish on the short-run.
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Someone who shorts probably does
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07-31-2006, 06:31 PM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
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Re: Bullish or Bearish?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mwsinron
Someone who shorts probably does
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Good luck with that.
__________________
Retired early, traveling perpetually.
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