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Old 04-29-2017, 05:33 PM   #81
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I don't think it's all my fault. They say bull markets are boring so it's probably that. Oh look I'm making money again today. I better shop for a bigger wallet.
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Old 04-29-2017, 05:43 PM   #82
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I guess you could say I was burned in the dot com bust and again in '08 if I had sold. But I didn't, just rode it out. Some of my friends and family bailed at the bottom, only to miss the rebound. My AA is 90/10 and have been most of the time I have been investing. I look at cash and bonds as a return free risk. Real estate is interesting but doesn't fit my plans. I've got a 2 pensions that I can tap early if the market tanks so I can afford to be more aggressive.
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Old 04-29-2017, 05:58 PM   #83
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You never know when there's some Auther Andersen accounting going on but right now the fed is piloting the ship pretty tightly as the bankers did take some casualties when Bear Stearns & Lehman were sacrificed at the alter after 158 years. That left a mark for sure.
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Old 04-29-2017, 09:23 PM   #84
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And is the chart inflation corrected? Does it include dividends?
I have no idea (it looks like the DJ index value on a log scale - so probably neither). Midpack posted that chart.
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Old 04-29-2017, 09:34 PM   #85
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....Retirement is fully funded at net return of zero. ...
Ah, one those guys who worked much longer than they needed to.
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Old 04-29-2017, 09:46 PM   #86
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The only bad question is the one that doesn't it asked. Welcome to the neighborhood. The banking fraud & watching the US Congress peeing on itself as they took orders from Goldman Sachs to pass TARP or watch the world as they know it disappear into oblivion would make anyone think twice about casting their pearls before the swine known as Wall st. But then again you got to ask yourself what are your alternatives.
I very specifically recall that many of the big banks did not want TARP money... it was forced upon them...

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/us...blink-20081015

First nine banks were forced to take bailouts - The Boston Globe
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Old 04-29-2017, 10:01 PM   #87
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Forced to take money. So that's even more disturbing. Why would anyone be able to force money on someone & why would they do that?
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Old 04-30-2017, 08:32 AM   #88
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I may be one of the "gamblers" who prefer to stay in the game. I would ask you the opposite question. "If one has enough resources to fund retirement using a safe return rate, WHY NOT continue with the bulk of one's assets in the stock market?"

If you can continue making above CD and bond rates, and the include the inevitable "big correction" or two or three in your plan, can still cover most of your expenses with non-investible incomes such as SS and pension incomes, can continue living in the same lifestyle you have up till now, why not continue with what brought you to this point? The various calculators all give the opportunity to change one's asset allocation for determining the likely hood of success. I use them.

What if you and your spouse plan to age 90, find a success rate that makes you comfortable, and then happen to live to age 105 or more, what then? You say you are not planning for LTC but what if you happen to need care? even though most don't, many do. Making historically higher returns on my equity investments only opens more security for us over the next 30+ years..... I know 30 years ago I didn't think of some expenses that I have now. Who knows what the next 10, 20, 30 years will bring?

But ours is not a set and forget plan. I can always adjust it any time I need to and probably will. I am continuing to increase my financial knowledge even at the age of 64. Who knows what my plan will look like in 10, or 20 years? So far - so good!

At least that is some of my thinking.
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This is what got me to where I am today (64, multi-millions) so why change course? I find myself going on more cruises (in suites no less), going out to more concerts, restaurants, etc. This all costs money and so I need to generate it. I think I've won the race but why quit?
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Old 04-30-2017, 10:05 AM   #89
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There was one point during the 2008/9 decline that I turned to DW and discussed whether to consider selling. Not selling out, but selling some.

Her comment was a strong no. She is conservative, not interested in finances, but has loads of common sense. Her reply...hell no-not only will they eventually go back up but now seems to be the time to buy in when when prices are low.

Followed that advice and lucked out. Now I wonder why I was a little apprehensive.

We do bond funds. But short term only. We absolutely stay away from the long term market.
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Old 04-30-2017, 10:10 AM   #90
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There was one point during the 2008/9 decline that I turned to DW and discussed whether to consider selling. Not selling out, but selling some.

Her comment was a strong no. She is conservative, not interested in finances, but has loads of common sense. Her reply...hell no-not only will they eventually go back up but is now is the time to buy in when when prices are low?

Followed that advice and lucked out. Now I wonder why I was a little apprehensive.

We do bond funds. But short term only. We absolutely stay away from the long term market.
You didn't "luck out". Buying low is the surest way to make money in the market. I sold all of my bond funds and bought stock since I was pretty sure the world wasn't going to end in 2009. Events like that are the main reason I keep bonds in my portfolio, so I can sell them when the market swoons and buy equity.
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Old 04-30-2017, 10:22 AM   #91
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A lot of people follow Mulligan's example. Proof is how happy people are when they "take a Mulligan". !!rimshot!!

From what I see there is a lot of agreement on index funds vs. managed funds . And even more negative agreement on Variable Indexed Partialy Recursive Limited Guarantee Reverse Payment Annuities with 65 pages of detailed legal jargon no buyer understands.

Other than the above two, I think we are all over the map. And sometimes the participants in a thread are using different maps!


Chuck, my pension is the true basis that makes me "smart". So I could in theory take my stash and convert it all into $1 bills and use as my permanent toilet tissue supply and it wouldn't affect my standard of living. I wouldn't be nearly as smart without my pension. If I did not have a pension, I don't know how I would actually invest....Probably wouldn't have much time to ponder as I would still be working, lol.
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Old 04-30-2017, 10:31 AM   #92
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I think it was Johnathan Clements who advised that to get a good return on one's investments one must usually invest when the market is down, exactly when we tend to pull in our horns and take cover. That is when people can expect our investments to earn those above market returns that we so love.

Like my old grand-pappy once said, " If you want true love don't chase after the hottest, sexiest girl at the dance, find the quiet understated one whose beauty is hidden beneath her modest clothing and shy smile".
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Old 04-30-2017, 10:33 AM   #93
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So I could in theory take my stash and convert it all into $1 bills and use as my permanent toilet tissue supply
It wouldn't be very soft, though. I like Northern TP much better.
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Old 04-30-2017, 10:46 AM   #94
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'Ya dance with who brung ya' or if you'd rather '[equities] have been very, very good to me'.

I agree with CRLLS's sentiment "If one has enough resources to fund retirement using a safe return rate, WHY NOT continue with the bulk of one's assets in the stock market?"

At this point, I am investing for my children and grand-children and if lucky even my great grand-children. I'm not 100% in equities by any means but certainly never going to be part of the 'ages in bonds' crowd either.
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Old 04-30-2017, 11:09 AM   #95
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i had just retired

Quote:
Originally Posted by brett View Post
There was one point during the 2008/9 decline that I turned to DW and discussed whether to consider selling. Not selling out, but selling some.

Her comment was a strong no. She is conservative, not interested in finances, but has loads of common sense. Her reply...hell no-not only will they eventually go back up but now seems to be the time to buy in when when prices are low.

Followed that advice and lucked out. Now I wonder why I was a little apprehensive.

We do bond funds. But short term only. We absolutely stay away from the long term market.
it was looking ugly, i had already stopped looking at the monthly statements, it was the first time i had heard the term ultra-short mutual funds, i was frozen in fear to be honest, but i remember being an idiot in my late 20's in 1987 and sold . i held firm in 2000 mainly because i had a major death in the family (my sister), and money was the last thing on my mind. i only learned of my paper loss when i went to the tax preparer and he opened a few of the statements and was howling about how much i lost. it was about that time things started to turn around. when the next tsunami comes, ill stop looking at the statements again , and ill watch cartoons on tv and not the financial networks.
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Old 04-30-2017, 11:22 AM   #96
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it was looking ugly, i had already stopped looking at the monthly statements, it was the first time i had heard the term ultra-short mutual funds, i was frozen in fear to be honest, but i remember being an idiot in my late 20's in 1987 and sold . i held firm in 2000 mainly because i had a major death in the family (my sister), and money was the last thing on my mind. i only learned of my paper loss when i went to the tax preparer and he opened a few of the statements and was howling about how much i lost. it was about that time things started to turn around. when the next tsunami comes, ill stop looking at the statements again , and ill watch cartoons on tv and not the financial networks.
Oddly enough, I had the opposite reaction. I thrive on good information, not fake news, and I found myself looking (and cringing) at my financial status online daily. As I watched my principal investment account (containing my inheritance) shrivel, I also looked at the regular income from my rental property and thanked my lucky stars that I had had the foresight to diversify into real estate. I bought and leveraged two more properties in late 2008, and in 2009, dumped cash into equities as they were showing signs of life again. That investment account has now more than trebled, without any further inputs from me.

It really helped to be w*rking, because there was cash coming in, and because it was a distraction from the carnage. If faced with the same crisis now, I still wouldn't sell, but I would temporarily cut back on discretionary expenses such as travel. I'm four years into ER, and so far, the sequence of returns has worked in my favour.
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Old 04-30-2017, 11:40 AM   #97
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Sorry for the quality of the image. This really struck home for me. Depending on your time-line, a statistical 10% annual return will sure fund the 4% WR.

From https://seekingalpha.com/article/381...ortfolio-today
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File Type: jpg SPY.jpg (21.4 KB, 41 views)
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Old 04-30-2017, 12:43 PM   #98
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I agree, W2R. Plus it would wreck havoc on the monthly budget....Oinment costs would explode!
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Old 04-30-2017, 01:53 PM   #99
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There was one point during the 2008/9 decline that I turned to DW and discussed whether to consider selling. Not selling out, but selling some.

Her comment was a strong no. She is conservative, not interested in finances, but has loads of common sense. Her reply...hell no-not only will they eventually go back up but now seems to be the time to buy in when when prices are low.

Followed that advice and lucked out. Now I wonder why I was a little apprehensive.

...
The right thing to do in early 2009 was the wrong thing to do in early 1931. As one gets older, this becomes much more important.

So I personally look for a numerically set trend before buying stocks after a crash. Not a sure thing but might avoid a 1931 type bad decision.
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Old 04-30-2017, 04:42 PM   #100
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I am only 55% equities, 40% bonds 5% cash.
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