CA Real Estate Speculators

[REWahoo]

So I was rolling the garbage can out to the road today (most of you know I live out in the sticks) and a guy pulls up and rolls down his window. Introduces himself and says he's from CA and in TX on business. Says he's got some spare time and looking at rural property for investment. Asks me what lots sell for in the neighborhood. Told him most of the lots were about 5 acres and were selling for about $50,000. I think he wet his pants.

If the real estate speculators are nosing around in the Texas brush, can the bubble be about to pop?

[Ol_Rancher]

REW,
* * * * *Around Blanco county the real estate stories seem to be undergoing a new wrinkle. Building materials are costing 30% to 50% more than they did six months ago. Cement $58/yard to $72/yard + delivery
* * * * * * * * * * *PVC - 2'' @ $17 a length
* * * * * * * * * * *OCB sheathing up 50%
Roofing materials hard to get at any price
The above info is several weeks old.

Supply yards will only give 24 hr. price quotes. Many stories of people putting building plans on hold.

Local contractors unable to sign contracts with estimated totals.

Contractors now having to drive to Lousiana to make $$$

All this and the New Orleans job not even started and hurricane season not over. Looks like a terrible time to plan new construction in hill country on your own property.

I think this slow down plus sustained high gas prices will 'save' much of Texas hill country's rural character for awhile.

Any other stories from forum members about the effects of rising costs of building materials?

[JPatrick]

How long before the water crisis hits the hill country in your judgement?

[ESRBob]

It may be temporary, or we may get an annual revisit of the storm havoc, but this sort of trend does help bolster real estate values for existing homes.

I know my local home depot is out of stuff I needed last week to pump water out of my own basement in NY and we all know where it's being shipped. (I found a cheapo workaround that cost me only $10, a rare frugal living success for me)

If this is roiling through the whole construction supplies industry in a major way, and if we are indeed moving into a period of bigger-than-normal storms...

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ol_Rancher Any other stories from forum members about the effects of rising costs of building materials?

I haven't priced any building materials recently, but there are news stories confirming your experience. Here is one from Pennsylvania:

http://www.yorkdispatch.com/local/ci_3146965

[Ol_Rancher]

In the areas near San Antonio the upcoming water crises will hit hard in about two decades.

West of Austin the highland lakes will supply enough water for a lot longer time frame.

*In the hill country more than 50 - 60 miles of west of Interstate 35 .. it depends on the configuration of the aquafers. As the aquafer levels go down, restrictions will be placed on well drilling. The real battles will be over the 'right of capture' which in Texas allows a land owner to draw all the water from wells or surface water he wants.
The classic case of this was the famous 'cat fish farm' outside San Antonio. Seems as though a Baltimore lawyer teamed up with a local rancher on the river near S.A. and under the pretense of raising cat fish, pumped millions of gallons of aquafer water daily so the cat fish would need to swim against the current and produce a less fatty flesh than pond raised fish. The water pumped from the aquafer and then emptied into the river from the series of tanks was almost equal to 50% of the cities daily water needs.
The city was forced to pay tens of millions of dollars to stop it.
A state constitutional change will be the only way to modify the 'right of capture' and these water wars have already begun. T Boone Pickings has already bought up most of an aquafer in the Texas panhandle to pipe to S.A. when it goes dry. A complcated water war is being negotiated with much posturing of lawyers for speculators, family owned ranches, state of Texas water authorities (not sure which agency), and cities over an aquafer near Del Rio. Again with an eye towards S.A. needs.
San Antonio is booming as the Toyota plant and many parts manufacturers are relocating there.

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ol_Rancher ... The real battles will be over the 'right of capture' which in Texas allows a land owner to draw all the water from wells or surface water he wants. The classic case of this was the famous 'cat fish farm' outside San Antonio...

Yep. Ol' Ronnie Pucek's "Living Waters Catfish Farm". Drilled what was believed to be the largest water well in the world, 30 inches in diameter, flowing at 40 thousand gallons per minute under artesian pressure. The city fought Pucek for 9 years and ended up paying him more than $30 million to get the rights to his water.

And you thought real estate was a good investment... 8)

http://www.edwardsaquifer.net/pucek.html

[Nords]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ol_Rancher Any other stories from forum members about the effects of rising costs of building materials?

You can GET building materials? How much can you fit in your checked baggage to Oahu?

[justin]

I bought a bunch of lumber recently. The prices for 2x4's are down about 30% from a year ago.

On the California speculators, I recently sold my Chapel Hill, NC condo to a guy from Santa Cruz, CA - he didn't really even care to negotiate the price. He refi'd his CA house and used that money as a down payment on my condo and two other condos in North Carolina. I'm sure he was peeing his pants, buying rather large condos for under $100k!

[honobob]

Quote:

Originally Posted by justin I bought a bunch of lumber recently. The prices for 2x4's are down about 30% from a year ago. On the California speculators, I recently sold my Chapel Hill, NC condo to a guy from Santa Cruz, CA - he didn't really even care to negotiate the price. He refi'd his CA house and used that money as a down payment on my condo and two other condos in North Carolina. I'm sure he was peeing his pants, buying rather large condos for under $100k!

According to neighborhoodscout.com Chapel Hill has appreciated 9.95% annualy since 1990, 9.47% the last 5 years, 8.07% the LAST 12 months and 7.22% the last quarter! I'm thinking if things revert to the mean that the mean must be about 9%!

Now if those condos were in the Durham Chapel Hill Blvd./Erwin Rd. area the appreciation is more like 16.68% annualy. There's your down payment back in about a year and with 16K annual appreciation plus rents I gotta wonder why we're bailing him out?

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Did you really need to resurrect a 3 year old thread to supply us with this valuable information regarding property appreciation in a market that 98.9% of us dont live in?

Is there a second note in this song?

[honobob]

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny Did you really need to resurrect a 3 year old thread to supply us with this valuable information regarding property appreciation in a market that 98.9% of us dont live in? Is there a second note in this song?

Oh Brunch Bacon Bloated Belly Bunny Real estate is Best looked at over time. Besides, it seems more people are talking about investing in foreign places for Better returns and diversification. What's more foreign to the 98.9% than Houston?

Second note in this song? Everybody sing! "We're in the Money" .neighborhoodscout.com

[cute fuzzy bunny]

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Can I ask for another board enhancement? Can we have a single button "ignore user" function right next to their name?