Calling the bottom!

[cute fuzzy bunny]

I think thats it. Not to say we wont still have a few red days, but I think the worst of it is over and things will start turning up before long.

At a minimum, aint it nice to read something positive?

[plex]

It probably is fairly near, whenever the banks stop de-leveraging themselves, there should be a significant correction in the market to reflect the actual earnings of the companies. The banks are having to sell regardless of the cost in order to meet all the debts being called in.

[audreyh1]

60 days after crisis for the smoke to mostly clear. Since you could put the start of the real fire (the credit freeze) as somewhere between 9/17 and 9/29, by the end of Nov 08 we should have some settling down.

I forget exactly which date Lehman declared bankruptcy. That probably marks the start.

Audrey

[Retire Soon]

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny I think thats it. Not to say we wont still have a few red days, but I think the worst of it is over and things will start turning up before long. At a minimum, aint it nice to read something positive?

I'll drink to that!

[FUEGO]

I'm going to abstain from proclaiming today as the bottom for a few days. Heck, I may even wait a few weeks. For safety.

[MGYog]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Retire Soon I'll drink to that!

Just put in 10K into VTI. I put my money where my mouth is (while crossing fingers).

[ziggy29]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Retire Soon I'll drink to that!

I've been doing a lot of that lately...

[maddythebeagle]

For some reason, this thread just doesnt seem right....A discussion of bottoms by CFB without a Vida pic?

[ScaredtoQuit]

The bottom for the DOW is still a few months off. It's going down to 7,267

Remember, you heard it here first!!!

At this point I'm down 22% and holding steady. Good thing I decided to start a second career!!!

[Donzo]

I hope you are right CFB.....I am considering doing some rebalancing this week in my 401K/IRAs - I am holding on to my cash - if I threw in the cash and the market went down to 6000 - I would not be sleeping well. But if it was all up from here I would feel pretty darn good - I need to sit on my hands again......this fear/greed thing is very tough to deal with.

[RDamien]

If I had to guess it's near bottom. Or near enough I would feel no need to be greedy about waiting. Only problem is, I dont know how to take advantage of it really. I suppose throwing a bunch more money in my 401k index funds, but im already contributing max. or more in an IRA but most of my free money is already going to those two sources.

Anything else we should be doing if we thought the bottom is near?

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RDamien Anything else we should be doing if we thought the bottom is near?

Sacrifice a virgin?

[bbbamI]

I hope it's at the bottom. I'm getting tired of the pics showing the Wall Street guys wailing and rubbing their eyes. If it gets worse, we may see daggers and ropes.

[laurence]

Just my humble opinion, but we aren't even at the lows of 2002(2003?), so I'm not convinced of a bottom. I'm waiting for the cover of TIME to say, "The death of equities" or something like that before I scream "BUY!"

Although Kramer did tell everyone to get out, so that's a good sign.

[riskadverse]

You know what you get when you pick a bottom!

[ziggy29]

Last hour of trading. Up 200 or down 400 in the last hour?

[al_bundy]

doubt it, more likely a rally of 20% to 30% from here and then more downside. i'm thinking we'll go below 2002 another smaller rally, a final capitulation like in August - October 2002 and that would be the bottom.

i think the bottom will be between 768 and 600

[FUEGO]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RDamien Anything else we should be doing if we thought the bottom is near?

If you have any cash/bonds in your portfolio, you could put some of that in the market (but you have to call it "market timing" or tactical asset allocation).

You could add to some down-trodden asset classes (I've started a thread here pondering a few).

[ziggy29]

Quote:

Originally Posted by FUEGO If you have any cash/bonds in your portfolio, you could put some of that in the market (but you have to call it "market timing" or tactical asset allocation).

It wouldn't be what I'd consider "market timing" if there were some mechanical thresholds that kick in when you are a certain percentage out of whack with your target allocation. For example, if you have an asset class that you want to represent 20% of your portfolio, you may sell it if it hits 25% or buy it if it drops below 15%.

If you just rebalance on a gut feeling, yeah, that's market timing.

[unclemick]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ziggy29 It wouldn't be what I'd consider "market timing" if there were some mechanical thresholds that kick in when you are a certain percentage out of whack with your target allocation. For example, if you have an asset class that you want to represent 20% of your portfolio, you may sell it if it hits 25% or buy it if it drops below 15%. If you just rebalance on a gut feeling, yeah, that's market timing.

First Gramatica kicks the potential game winner wide right, then wide left - and the Saint's are the proud owner of the cellar in their league.

Technical bottom - don't know but I plan to start nibbling later this month.

Hope springs eternal - not sure what to chase. I know in 1974 I misread Ben Graham's 'middle way' for at least twenty years until Wellesley's top ten holdings brought it on home to me.

heh heh heh - you 'knew' I was gonna slip a little Psst Wellesley in there - right? .

Appdx 4. The New Speculation in Common Stocks, Ben Graham's The Intelligent Investor.