So, I think DH and I are closing in on FIRE, but I am having trouble telling how close we actually are. I'd like us to have around $100K per year in retirement. DH and I have private individual health insurance, and it is not too expensive, so I don't think that is a big issue in our decision.
Our portfolio in stocks and cash is around 1M. Our investment real estate portfolio is hard to value. We paid around $875 for it, and judging from comparables, I think we could clear around 1M for it today; currently, the net income (after management, repairs, generous reserves, etc) is 60K per year. Between the two parts of our portfolio, it seems like we may have enough to FIRE--but I have a nagging suspicion that I am not doing a good job of taking into account the risk of our rental real estate, so even though I can get the numbers to come out "right", I don't feel any confidence in them.
When I use FIREcalc to run a retirement scenario, I plug in $60,000 as an inflation-adjusted annuity. But real estate income is probably less dependable than a pension. Our real estate portfolio is fairly well-diversified: 10 high quality units in a two different states, and many different (all stable) neighborhoods. The vacancy rate so far has been under 5%, but I only have a couple of years of data.
I am curious as to what people would suggest I do to capture the riskier nature of this investment compared to a pension. For example, I could pretend the real estate is invested in stocks and plug that into FIREcalc. But the FIREcalc tool uses historic stock market performance, which is not the same as historic real estate rental performance--so how relevant would the result really be to my situation?
Just looking for ideas on how people would approach this question: can DH and I retire now?
Thanks and much appreciate any thoughts
Our portfolio in stocks and cash is around 1M. Our investment real estate portfolio is hard to value. We paid around $875 for it, and judging from comparables, I think we could clear around 1M for it today; currently, the net income (after management, repairs, generous reserves, etc) is 60K per year. Between the two parts of our portfolio, it seems like we may have enough to FIRE--but I have a nagging suspicion that I am not doing a good job of taking into account the risk of our rental real estate, so even though I can get the numbers to come out "right", I don't feel any confidence in them.
When I use FIREcalc to run a retirement scenario, I plug in $60,000 as an inflation-adjusted annuity. But real estate income is probably less dependable than a pension. Our real estate portfolio is fairly well-diversified: 10 high quality units in a two different states, and many different (all stable) neighborhoods. The vacancy rate so far has been under 5%, but I only have a couple of years of data.
I am curious as to what people would suggest I do to capture the riskier nature of this investment compared to a pension. For example, I could pretend the real estate is invested in stocks and plug that into FIREcalc. But the FIREcalc tool uses historic stock market performance, which is not the same as historic real estate rental performance--so how relevant would the result really be to my situation?
Just looking for ideas on how people would approach this question: can DH and I retire now?
Thanks and much appreciate any thoughts