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Old 06-13-2020, 12:04 PM   #121
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Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
It's just that many of the EV fans go over the top, and make ridiculous claims, so if you want to avoid being lumped with some of these types, it's always best to include some actual data.

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I'm sorry I didn't include any data - I didn't know the idea that an electric car would have a lower total cost of ownership would be a contentious topic!
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Old 06-13-2020, 12:15 PM   #122
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Originally Posted by GravitySucks View Post
To get (almost) back on topic:
I think Uber / Lyft have changed the rental market considerably. My last 5 flying vacations only one included a car rental. It's been cheaper and safer to Uber everywhere. No worries about having an extra drink at dinner. Never get lost. Way cheaper than renting.
DD Ubers for business trips, only time I ever cabbed it on business trips were Boston or NYC. Everywhere else it used to be better to rent.
Still waiting for prices to fall. The FJ Cruisers I've been hunting have not fallen more than the 10% in April. When do you guess prices will start declining?
To get a real drop in prices I think we need one of two things to happen. First, we could have demand completely dry up. The helicopter money being passed out has prevented that in the short term, but as this mess drags on I imagine we will see more and more leased cars returned without the driver getting a different new or used car. The $600/week freebie for the unemployed drying up in July will add to that. Second, we could see forced sellers dumping supply on the market. Presuming that Hertz cannot sell enough new shares to the robinhood crowd to fix its balance sheet, Some amount (and possibly all) of their fleet will end up hitting the market. In addition, if we start seeing defaults ramp up on car loans and leases as the initial deferrals wear off and lenders have to finally start calling a spade a spade, you may see forced liquidations of loan and lease collateral. I'd guess this Fall may be when some of the logjam comes loose.
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Old 06-13-2020, 12:18 PM   #123
Recycles dryer sheets
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The URL is https://afdc.energy.gov/calc/

Interestingly, Teslas are not in the vehicle data base.
Sadly, over the years, the Department of Energy has largely become an arm of the oil and gas industry. The big automakers are pretty cozy as well.

And that explains why Tesla is completely ignored. While it's true they are the newest American automaker, with 100% of their cars made in America, they don't have any cars that still run on gas or diesel. Their Model S entered production in 2012 and their Model 3 in 2017. Even though the Model 3 has been a best seller for two years running, the DOE doesn't see fit to include it. And it has lower running costs than even the Chevy Bolt and it compares favorably to much nicer cars than the Bolt in terms of features, safety, performance, size, etc.
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Car prices decreasing due to Hertz unloading vast number of cars
Old 06-13-2020, 12:39 PM   #124
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Car prices decreasing due to Hertz unloading vast number of cars

Sorry to go back a few posts. I was curious about cybertruck vs tundra cost of ownership. I used model X consumption of 375wh/mi * 1.33 = 500wh/mi

Used www.edmunds.com cost to own page for the tundra.

Used 9 cents on electricity, more than my avg for the last 2 years.

If you assume tax, insurance, repairs, tax and fees, financing are the same, a Tesla would save me $13,095 in fuel and maintenance over 5 years.

The trucks are equivalently spec and the Tundra might be $5k cheaper if I negotiate off MSRP. No idea on resale (aka depreciation).

We are looking for a used truck on a deal, hope the car prices drop.
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Old 06-13-2020, 01:15 PM   #125
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Originally Posted by pj.mask View Post
Sorry to go back a few posts. I was curious about cybertruck vs tundra cost of ownership. I used model X consumption of 375wh/mi * 1.33 = 500wh/mi

Used www.edmunds.com cost to own page for the tundra.

Used 9 cents on electricity, more than my avg for the last 2 years.

If you assume tax, insurance, repairs, tax and fees, financing are the same, a Tesla would save me $13,095 in fuel and maintenance over 5 years.

The trucks are equivalently spec and the Tundra might be $5k cheaper if I negotiate off MSRP. No idea on resale (aka depreciation).

We are looking for a used truck on a deal, hope the car prices drop.
Has the cyber truck been built and tested yet?
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Old 06-13-2020, 01:19 PM   #126
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Has the cyber truck been built and tested yet?
No, just the two prototypes as far as the public knows - production is not slated to begin until 2021.

I'm looking forward to this. The Model Y production was moved forward by almost a full year from it's originally announced date and is now in full production, at least at the Fremont plant. I would like it if this moves Cybertruck production forward but that might be too much to ask considering how revolutionary the engineering and design is compared to existing vehicles. If anything, I suspect the actual production might slip 6 months or so.
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Old 06-13-2020, 01:26 PM   #127
Recycles dryer sheets
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Originally Posted by pj.mask View Post
Sorry to go back a few posts. I was curious about cybertruck vs tundra cost of ownership. I used model X consumption of 375wh/mi * 1.33 = 500wh/mi

Used www.edmunds.com cost to own page for the tundra.

Used 9 cents on electricity, more than my avg for the last 2 years.

If you assume tax, insurance, repairs, tax and fees, financing are the same, a Tesla would save me $13,095 in fuel and maintenance over 5 years.

The trucks are equivalently spec and the Tundra might be $5k cheaper if I negotiate off MSRP. No idea on resale (aka depreciation).
Did you use the price of the single motor Cybertruck for this comparison? I suspect the Cybertruck will consume about 20% more electricity than even the Model X due to it's much larger size. It really is a full-sized pickup with a huge cabin for six large adults!

I know electricity is a minor component of the TCO but I'm wondering how the comparison would fare using 20% more electricity? My brother has a Dodge Ram 2500 used in his work. He drives a lot of miles and is compensated $0.60/mile by his boss. He told me a Cybertruck will turn into a revenue generator for him.
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Old 06-13-2020, 03:38 PM   #128
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There's a great thread on EVs over in Other Topics.
Just saying....
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Old 06-13-2020, 05:42 PM   #129
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There's a great thread on EVs over in Other Topics.
Just saying....
+1
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Old 06-13-2020, 07:33 PM   #130
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There's a great thread on EVs over in Other Topics.
Just saying....
This is like telling a Jehovah's Witness you have already found Jesus.
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Old 06-14-2020, 12:16 AM   #131
Recycles dryer sheets
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This is like telling a Jehovah's Witness you have already found Jesus.
Gosh, all that's missing is politics!
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Old 06-14-2020, 01:10 PM   #132
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Back on topic, update of OP from yesterday...

Hertz unloading thousands of bankruptcy cars
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Old 06-14-2020, 06:39 PM   #133
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There's a great thread on EVs over in Other Topics.
Just saying....
Agree, I am sick of the EV sales pitch every f*&^%$# time.
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Old 06-17-2020, 06:16 AM   #134
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Let's go a different direction-

Buying a car at a discount will allow you to put the savings into a variable annuity, which of course will allow you to claim SS at the optimum age of 64.7 years old, assuming that you invest with the proven best AA of 53-38-7-2. This is all predicated on not carrying a mortgage into retirement, and that you have a net worth of at least 2.37 million. Said net worth must include the net present value of SS at a discount rate of 6%, and using the agreed upon 18% haircut that will occur in 2035. Any pensions must also be included in the net worth calculation using a discount rate of 5.3%. You current house must not be included in the net worth calculation, but you can include the purchase cost of any alternative energy vehicles or improvements (because they will never decrease in value). Timeshares are still valued at 0.

Edited to add: And never retire in Texas because of the seismic activity.
Excellent analysis! I don't see how anyone could disagree with anything you've stated!
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Old 08-05-2020, 12:40 PM   #135
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This article suggests that Hertz filing for bankruptcy and their cash needs may lower the prices of cars for sale. Article suggests a 5% to 15% savings over a used car dealer.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/24/busin...ars/index.html
In yet another example of how difficult it is to accurately predict the future...


Used car prices spiking as COVID-19 pandemic shakes up the market for new cars

Quote:
Any hope the rental-car company Hertz's Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing this year would cause in a drop in used-car prices has diminished due to the overwhelming influence of COVID-19 on the market.
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Car prices decreasing due to Hertz unloading vast number of cars
Old 08-05-2020, 02:34 PM   #136
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Car prices decreasing due to Hertz unloading vast number of cars

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I'm sorry I didn't include any data - I didn't know the idea that an electric car would have a lower total cost of ownership would be a contentious topic!


Costs are always contentious. Think about paper vs. plastic bags. Gasoline vs. diesel. Renting vs. owning. And the costs of taking SS at 62 vs. 70. Total costs including opportunity costs are rarely taken into account.

That said if I had money to burn, my first purchase would probably be a Tesla.
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Old 08-05-2020, 03:00 PM   #137
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Yeah I like to kill time roaming around car lots. Several new car lots are nearly empty in my area. Normally the 2021 models would be starting to roll in but one salesman told me they don’t expect to see them until November.
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Old 08-05-2020, 04:08 PM   #138
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In yet another example of how difficult it is to accurately predict the future...


Used car prices spiking as COVID-19 pandemic shakes up the market for new cars
Amazing! I am so glad that F got his used car just before the pandemic. He had no choice about the timing of that purchase since his Murano gave up the ghost after almost 270K miles and was broken beyond any reasonable repair. But anyway, according to the article it sounds like waiting for those Hertz cars would not have been such a good move after all.
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Old 08-09-2020, 01:21 PM   #139
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In yet another example of how difficult it is to accurately predict the future...

I was getting my truck serviced the other day, and there was next to nothing in terms of new vehicles on the Ford lot. In hind sight, (lots of stimulus $ plus shut downs in production plus people buying instead of ride sharing) > (decrease in demand due to job loss and less miles driven during lock down).

A auto mechanic friend with a business who was worried about having to lay off help or go out of business in April now has more business than he can keep up with (people putting off service work during the lock down).

Looking forward, perhaps 2021 will be a much better year to buy a vehicle after production resumes and stimulus wears off?
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Old 08-09-2020, 01:46 PM   #140
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Dw and I discussed it this week. While we would like to buy a car by the end of the year, with us not going anywhere there is no rush. We can be patient and avoid the higher insurance bill in the meantime.
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