Car prices decreasing due to Hertz unloading vast number of cars

[RxMan]

My first car purchase was from Hertz right after I finished school. It was a Pontiac Grand Am. I felt like I received a good deal compared to buying something new. One big advantage to buying a used car this way was they had the complete and detailed service records of the vehicle. I kept that car over 8.5 years before selling it to CarMax.

I just bought a used car a couple of days ago. I bought it from Auction Direct USA. They are actually located where that Hertz dealership used to be.

My experience used car shopping this week was that inventories were just starting to recover due to the pandemic. Dealerships were not taking new inventory due to reduced business. Anecdotally foot traffic had picked up and people that had been in the market for a vehicle were finally out looking at cars.

I was happy with my Hertz deal. In fact I would have bought from them when I was in the market for my second car when I bought a Mustang but they had already closed my local dealership at that point which was the end of 2008.

So now I just purchased my third car in 20 years. Not a bad average I’d say. I try to hold onto cars and get my money’s worth out of them. I wouldn’t hesitate looking at a former rental as a potential used car purchase. It is in their best interest to ensure those cars are in top shape when they sell them so they have a steady future business to unload their rentals.

 

[GTFan]

I doubt the ~2% market share of EVs in the US (even growing at 20% CAGR) will affect car prices any time soon. Especially considering that they are all above the median new car price.

Yep, exactly. Wake me up when EVs get to at least 10% share, then we'll talk about impact.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

Total cost of ownership? Any studies that back that up?

You are doubting that a modern EV has a lower Total Cost of Ownership than a comparable gasoline-powered car so I am assuming you are unfamiliar with EV ownership, at least the more recent ones.

There are a number of studies that conclude the EV has the lower TCO. I would caution against taking any of them as absolute gospel as they ALL have a number of assumptions that will vary with geographic region, the particular cars being compared as equivalents, and especially, exactly when the study was performed.

As with any technology that is rapidly being adopted, the price and efficiency of EV's have changed dramatically very recently. Just last week Tesla knocked $5,000 off the price of their large EVs (Models S and X) and $2,000 off their mass-market sedan (Model 3). The prices of all of these vehicles have been steadily decreasing since their release while the capabilities and efficiencies have been steadily increasing. It's almost as dramatic as buying a computer in the 1990s!

There are TCO comparisons that are favorable for the EV even when the gasoline car being compared is a rather pedestrian car like a Toyota Corolla or Honda Accord being compared to an EV like the Tesla Model 3 with much better performance, handling and safety. And these comparisons were well before the recent price drops.

With a car like the Model 3 one of the biggest savings is in resale value. While older EV's like the original Nissan Leaf with it's very limited range or the original Chevy Bolt were known to have battery issues over time, and this greatly affected their resale value, more refined EV's like the Tesla Model S and especially the newer Model 3, have developed resale values significantly better than their gasoline counterparts. Good resale value can be a major factor in the TCO cost savings of a modern EV. However, even recent comparisons that cover a 10 year ownership period and ignore any remaining residual value at the end of the comparison period will find the EV on top.

Having said all that, I would say one of the most compelling reasons to own an EV (environmental reasons aside) is the convenience of not being tied to gasoline stations and regular service visits. Our two Model 3's have over 4 years of ownership between the two of them and have cost about $1.50 in total. That's the cost of the windshield cleaning solution I have to add. I've also rotated the tires about 5 times between the two of them and that might have had a cost if I had a tire shop do it instead of myself.

Convenience? Yes, I didn't realize how much time it took every year to keep our gasoline cars fueled and serviced. We would typically go to the gas station once a week to fill the tanks and make oil/filter appointments twice a year, winter and summer for each car. While it wasn't a big deal, it did add up. The two EV's charge in our carport and require no special trips to keep them running in top form.

The other reason EV's are so compelling is the driving experience. I love the smooth, silent power. I've had gasoline cars that were powerful and quick (at least I thought they were before I knew better) but none could match the two Teslas. Not in total power, not in silky smoothness and certainly not in how that power was already ready to go instantly, without any delay. I'm getting off-topic here but since we have no economic challenges with retirement, this is what really excites me more than the total cost of ownership savings of an EV. We can easily afford any car we want but the Model 3's are more compelling machines to drive than much more expensive gasoline-powered models.

I guess what I'm saying is sometimes it really is possible to have your cake and eat it too!

 

[brewer12345]

Ugh, another true believer. Don't wrestle with pigs.

I think it will take until August or October to see prices come down. Hertz secured debt holders have to wait 60 days to start liquidating the collateral, which then will take time.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

Yep, exactly. Wake me up when EVs get to at least 10% share, then we'll talk about impact.

Certainly, the impact will be greater as EV's rapidly gain market share but I wouldn't discount the impact they are already having just because it's relatively small.

Because gasoline-powered vehicles are declining in market share, it impacts their value. Manufacturers are trying to maintain market share and price is the most powerful way to do that. Yes, advertising helps maintain product interest but that just adds to the price they have to charge so overall it's a wash.

Meanwhile, automakers with declining market share and big advertising budgets look jealously at a company like Tesla with a rapidly growing market share and without ANY traditional advertising expenses that the consumer ends up paying for. The advertising expense just gets added to the price of the car.

Typically, advertising per car is around $1,000 when you consider the money the manufacturer spends added to the advertising budgets of the local dealers (which is subsidized by the manufacturer). If the car costs $33,000, that advertising is 3% of the total!

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

Ugh, another true believer. Don't wrestle with pigs.

Who is the "pig"?

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by BeachOrCity View Post
Total cost of ownership? Any studies that back that up?

You are doubting that a modern EV has a lower Total Cost of Ownership than a comparable gasoline-powered car .....

Nine paragraphs and 684 words later, the answer is "NO", he doesn't provide any studies to back it up (I'm not saying the studies don't exist, but he didn't answer your question with any data). And half those words had nothing to do with the question. Diversion much?

Who was the guy warning us that if we buy an EV today, we should be concerned about not even being able to find a gas station in a few years? Crazy.

-ERD50

 

[Montecfo]

What’s wrong with CPO? I’m looking at one or two right now. Under 10k miles and over 25% off Msrp. 2019 models. Something to be wary of?

Thought is they are simply charging you for designating it CPO. Does not mean it's a bad car, just pricing.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

Nine paragraphs and 684 words later, the answer is "NO", he doesn't provide any studies to back it up (I'm not saying the studies don't exist, but he didn't answer your question with any data). And half those words had nothing to do with the question. Diversion much?

I'm sorry for not providing what you wanted. Truthfully, I figured it would be just as easy for the requester to Google the Total Cost of Ownership of EV's vs. gasoline as it would be for me.

There is a lot of info out there for anyone who cares to look. I gave some helpful tips as well because these studies go out of date pretty quickly as the prices and products in the EV space are rapidly improving while their gasoline counterparts really are not. So while the comparison has been favorable for EV's for at least the last 3 years, the numbers just keep getting better for the EVs.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

Who was the guy warning us that if we buy an EV today, we should be concerned about not even being able to find a gas station in a few years? Crazy.

-ERD50

I missed that! Who was it?

It seems silly to worry about something that is obviously quite a ways off. I would be more worried about the resale of a gas car a few years down the road (unless I expected to keep it to the bitter end)!

I used to keep my cars until the bitter end and that has saved me a lot of money over the years. But now that I'm older and have saved so much money on cars, I think owning and driving a newer car every day is a simple pleasure that I've earned. I'm not one of those people who wants to be buried in their 1973 Chevy Impala!

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Our two Model 3's have over 4 years of ownership between the two of them and have cost about $1.50 in total. That's the cost of the windshield cleaning solution I have to add. I've also rotated the tires about 5 times between the two of them and that might have had a cost if I had a tire shop do it instead of myself.

Is it powered by magic?

 

[jollystomper]

Always bear in mind that with TCO studies, "your mileage may vary" . Based on the assumptions one can make EVs look better or worse than ICEVs.

The U.S. Dept of Energy has vehicle cost calculator where one can compare different vehicles, gas/hybrid/electric, along with you own driving characteristics, cost of gasoline, and state kwh info, to come up with a custom TCO number based on individual location and use.

The URL is https://afdc.energy.gov/calc/

Interestingly, Teslas are not in the vehicle data base. But, the calculator does have the ability to define "custom" vehicles, identify their power type,and their fuel or kwh characteristics.

 

[ERD50]

I'm sorry for not providing what you wanted. Truthfully, I figured it would be just as easy for the requester to Google the Total Cost of Ownership of EV's vs. gasoline as it would be for me. ...

Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Who was the guy warning us that if we buy an EV today, we should be concerned about not even being able to find a gas station in a few years? Crazy.

-ERD50

I missed that! Who was it?

Truthfully, I figured it would be just as easy for you to Google it.

But rather than stoop to your level, here you go:

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/thoughts-on-tesla-86202-20.html#post2163425

oneill225

Those still "stuck" with ICE vehicles when no one wants to buy them will also need to deal with finding gasoline to fuel them, as the corner gas station will no longer exist.

a few posts later (and a year and a half have already passed):

You have a little time (5-10 years, I would guess).

It's just that many of the EV fans go over the top, and make ridiculous claims, so if you want to avoid being lumped with some of these types, it's always best to include some actual data.

-ERD50

 

[Aerides]

are we really turning this into the EV vs ICE debate again?

(spoiler alert: no one wins, no one changes their mind)

 

[Clone]

are we really turning this into the EV vs ICE debate again?

Let's go a different direction-

Buying a car at a discount will allow you to put the savings into a variable annuity, which of course will allow you to claim SS at the optimum age of 64.7 years old, assuming that you invest with the proven best AA of 53-38-7-2. This is all predicated on not carrying a mortgage into retirement, and that you have a net worth of at least 2.37 million. Said net worth must include the net present value of SS at a discount rate of 6%, and using the agreed upon 18% haircut that will occur in 2035. Any pensions must also be included in the net worth calculation using a discount rate of 5.3%. You current house must not be included in the net worth calculation, but you can include the purchase cost of any alternative energy vehicles or improvements (because they will never decrease in value). Timeshares are still valued at 0.

Edited to add: And never retire in Texas because of the seismic activity.

 

[Markola]

Ok, I’m lost.

 

[mn54]

Let's go a different direction-

Buying a car at a discount will allow you to put the savings into a variable annuity, which of course will allow you to claim SS at the optimum age of 64.7 years old, assuming that you invest with the proven best AA of 53-38-7-2. This is all predicated on not carrying a mortgage into retirement, and that you have a net worth of at least 2.37 million. Said net worth must include the net present value of SS at a discount rate of 6%, and using the agreed upon 18% haircut that will occur in 2035. Any pensions must also be included in the net worth calculation using a discount rate of 5.3%. You current house must not be included in the net worth calculation, but you can include the purchase cost of any alternative energy vehicles or improvements (because they will never decrease in value). Timeshares are still valued at 0.

Edited to add: And never retire in Texas because of the seismic activity.

do you have any studies to back this up?

 

[GravitySucks]

To get (almost) back on topic:
I think Uber / Lyft have changed the rental market considerably. My last 5 flying vacations only one included a car rental. It's been cheaper and safer to Uber everywhere. No worries about having an extra drink at dinner. Never get lost. Way cheaper than renting.
DD Ubers for business trips, only time I ever cabbed it on business trips were Boston or NYC. Everywhere else it used to be better to rent.
Still waiting for prices to fall. The FJ Cruisers I've been hunting have not fallen more than the 10% in April. When do you guess prices will start declining?

 

[Z3Dreamer]

To get (almost) back on topic:
I think Uber / Lyft have changed the rental market considerably. My last 5 flying vacations only one included a car rental. It's been cheaper and safer to Uber everywhere. No worries about having an extra drink at dinner. Never get lost. Way cheaper than renting.
DD Ubers for business trips, only time I ever cabbed it on business trips were Boston or NYC. Everywhere else it used to be better to rent.
Still waiting for prices to fall. The FJ Cruisers I've been hunting have not fallen more than the 10% in April. When do you guess prices will start declining?

I agree with your logic, but as you say, we are not seeing it in the prices. And of course, the dealers are doing their best to convince you that it is tight market so you need to come by today.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

Is it powered by magic?

You might be forgiven for thinking it's magic after you test drive one! It certainly does feel like driving the future!

But no, that was the cost of maintenance (almost zero). My electricity cost is about 25% that of gasoline for a comparable car. In other words, super cheap.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

It's just that many of the EV fans go over the top, and make ridiculous claims, so if you want to avoid being lumped with some of these types, it's always best to include some actual data.

-ERD50

I'm sorry I didn't include any data - I didn't know the idea that an electric car would have a lower total cost of ownership would be a contentious topic!

 

[brewer12345]

To get (almost) back on topic:
I think Uber / Lyft have changed the rental market considerably. My last 5 flying vacations only one included a car rental. It's been cheaper and safer to Uber everywhere. No worries about having an extra drink at dinner. Never get lost. Way cheaper than renting.
DD Ubers for business trips, only time I ever cabbed it on business trips were Boston or NYC. Everywhere else it used to be better to rent.
Still waiting for prices to fall. The FJ Cruisers I've been hunting have not fallen more than the 10% in April. When do you guess prices will start declining?

To get a real drop in prices I think we need one of two things to happen. First, we could have demand completely dry up. The helicopter money being passed out has prevented that in the short term, but as this mess drags on I imagine we will see more and more leased cars returned without the driver getting a different new or used car. The $600/week freebie for the unemployed drying up in July will add to that. Second, we could see forced sellers dumping supply on the market. Presuming that Hertz cannot sell enough new shares to the robinhood crowd to fix its balance sheet, Some amount (and possibly all) of their fleet will end up hitting the market. In addition, if we start seeing defaults ramp up on car loans and leases as the initial deferrals wear off and lenders have to finally start calling a spade a spade, you may see forced liquidations of loan and lease collateral. I'd guess this Fall may be when some of the logjam comes loose.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

The URL is https://afdc.energy.gov/calc/

Interestingly, Teslas are not in the vehicle data base.

Sadly, over the years, the Department of Energy has largely become an arm of the oil and gas industry. The big automakers are pretty cozy as well.

And that explains why Tesla is completely ignored. While it's true they are the newest American automaker, with 100% of their cars made in America, they don't have any cars that still run on gas or diesel. Their Model S entered production in 2012 and their Model 3 in 2017. Even though the Model 3 has been a best seller for two years running, the DOE doesn't see fit to include it. And it has lower running costs than even the Chevy Bolt and it compares favorably to much nicer cars than the Bolt in terms of features, safety, performance, size, etc.

 

[pj.mask]

Sorry to go back a few posts. I was curious about cybertruck vs tundra cost of ownership. I used model X consumption of 375wh/mi * 1.33 = 500wh/mi

Used www.edmunds.com cost to own page for the tundra.

Used 9 cents on electricity, more than my avg for the last 2 years.

If you assume tax, insurance, repairs, tax and fees, financing are the same, a Tesla would save me $13,095 in fuel and maintenance over 5 years.

The trucks are equivalently spec and the Tundra might be $5k cheaper if I negotiate off MSRP. No idea on resale (aka depreciation).

We are looking for a used truck on a deal, hope the car prices drop.

 

[aja8888]

Sorry to go back a few posts. I was curious about cybertruck vs tundra cost of ownership. I used model X consumption of 375wh/mi * 1.33 = 500wh/mi

Used www.edmunds.com cost to own page for the tundra.

Used 9 cents on electricity, more than my avg for the last 2 years.

If you assume tax, insurance, repairs, tax and fees, financing are the same, a Tesla would save me $13,095 in fuel and maintenance over 5 years.

The trucks are equivalently spec and the Tundra might be $5k cheaper if I negotiate off MSRP. No idea on resale (aka depreciation).

We are looking for a used truck on a deal, hope the car prices drop.

Has the cyber truck been built and tested yet?