China devalues, Stops Agriculture imports

[Jeffman52]

As usual, I'm riding the storm out. Since I'm not retired and still putting money into the market, I figure I'm buying on sale.

[Car-Guy]

I'll likely buy before the close today. If it drops more tomorrow, I'll buy again. Lot's of dry powder but I'm just not sure if it's dropped enough yet so I'll nibble at it for now.

[Popeye]

Perhaps some Roth conversions now rather than December...

[Running_Man]

If the S&P500 breaks 2631 I think you will be able to buy under 2000.

[USGrant1962]

The S&P500 is only 6% off its "ALL TIME HIGH" so not even a decent correction yet.

[Mdlerth]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeffman52 As usual, I'm riding the storm out. Since I'm not retired and still putting money into the market, I figure I'm buying on sale.

+1

So many of the posts on this forum come from seasoned veterans, either retired for a long time or experienced navigators who've successfully weathered many a market storm. I interpret their consensus on volatility as "this too shall pass".

[candrew]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB More cowbell?

And MichaelB, really explore the space this time.

[imoldernu]

Thoughts on the farm economy? Not much said recently about the Chinese switch from the US to Brazil on soy beans among other commodities. The seasonal market is a moving proposition, and not just resolved by temporary storage.

So far, the national news is discussing the DOW, NASDAQ, and S&P. Whatever happens in the coming days, the longer term effects will come from individual stocks, and the place in the world economy. Were I in the market, my time would be spent in understanding the most volatile stocks. Going with the flow, would be last on my list.

When the dust initially settles, a look a the individual rates that exceed the standard deviation as a guideline.

[NW-Bound]

Yes, American farmers will not be too happy. The farmers cannot shrug and say that this shall pass.

But right now, looking at the Dow 30, hardest hit at the moment are Apple at -5.32%, and Visa at -5.44% just for today. The S&P is down -3.4% today, and -6% from its recent high.

Quote:

Originally Posted by imoldernu ... How to handle this?

All I can do personally is to tough it out. I already have lots of cash for 10 years of living expenses, and that is without SS.

I was writing yesterday that my WR is 2.7% for the trailing 12 months, and may be down to as low as 2% in the future years. Well, maybe not.

[cbo111]

I think China and her citizens are willing to withstand far more economic pain that our citizens are willing to endure. Especially with such a fuzzy understanding of what the tariff end-game is really about.

[Another Reader]

Quote:

Originally Posted by cbo111 I think China and her citizens are willing to withstand far more economic pain that our citizens are willing to endure. Especially with such a fuzzy understanding of what the tariff end-game is really about.

My guess is the citizens have no say in the matter but the government leaders play a good game of chess with them as the pawns. There must be a significant oversupply of soybeans for a buyer to eliminate an entire country's production from their buy list.

[Midpack]

Yawn...

[pb4uski]

^^^ Exactly... I just took a nap and slept like a baby.

[Another Reader]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound Yes, American farmers will not be too happy. The farmers cannot shrug and say that this shall pass. But right now, looking at the Dow 30, hardest hit at the moment are Apple at -5.32%, and Visa at -5.44% just for today. The S&P is down -3.4% today, and -6% from its recent high. All I can do personally is to tough it out. I already have lots of cash for 10 years of living expenses, and that is without SS. I was writing yesterday that my WR is 2.7% for the trailing 12 months, and may be down to as low as 2% in the future years. Well, maybe not.

Yes, and I'm kind of happy now the market ended as low as it did last year, reducing my RMD's from the inherited IRA this year. Hate to pull money from a depreciating account, even though the cash is set aside to cover a few years of RMD's.

[easysurfer]

Let's see, my plan is to do any rebalancing at start of year.

Just looked at my calendar. Yep, still plan on doing any rebalancing at start of year .

[harley]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2uu6NF2inY

[mamadogmamacat]

Not doing a darn thing, other than blowing some dough on a car.
I was planning, anyway, on perhaps some buying in my play portfolio later in the month, but that's small potatoes, and i doubt any of this however long it lasts, will have much impact on me as i have 1) a pension that supports at least 50% of my spending, more if I cut back on non-essentials, which i will not do unless this goes on for many months.2) enough cash or cash equivalents on hand to last for at least another year, even with the car purchase.
I do apologize to investors everywhere if my late Sunday evening auto purchase caused this
On a more serious note, I agree with RedBadger that Hong Kong is more concerning.
Mainland China folks are sadly used to being killed/starved/purged en masse, and that goes back to even before the Communist takeover in 1949. Hong Kong not so much, they have a long history of a good measure of economic independence, going back to the first significant contacts with the British and other Europeans in the 1800's

[Spock]

Quote:

Originally Posted by imoldernu Thoughts on the farm economy? Not much said recently about the Chinese switch from the US to Brazil on soy beans among other commodities. The seasonal market is a moving proposition, and not just resolved by temporary storage. ...

What is not in the media is the devastation in a big swath of the farm belt from flooding this spring. A record number of acres were planted late, which reduces yield. Lots of acres never got planted. Lots of stored grain from last years crop got flooded and then rotted.
From USDA, as of June 23 the amount of corn acreage rated "good to excellent" was 21 percentage point below last year.
China shutting down their imports will be atleast partially offset by the reduced crop production this year.
One article talks about crop failures in Australia. Another talks of record crops in Brazil this year.
Place your bets.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spock What is not in the media is the devastation in a big swath of the farm belt from flooding this spring. A record number of acres were planted late, which reduces yield. Lots of acres never got planted. Lots of stored grain from last years crop got flooded and then rotted. From USDA, as of June 23 the amount of corn acreage rated "good to excellent" was 21 percentage point below last year. China shutting down their imports will be atleast partially offset by the reduced crop production this year. One article talks about crop failures in Australia. Another talks of record crops in Brazil this year. Place your bets.

It's good to have a silver lining. We may not have that much crop to sell to China anyway.

[Rianne]

Buy? Not yet.