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Old 01-13-2018, 07:04 PM   #221
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Originally Posted by Floridatennisplayer View Post
We are talking about social security and when to take it. No idea why you are throwing in life insurance, fire insurance.. has zero comparisons.
I know that you have no idea.... Delaying SS. to age 70 is Old Age Insurance.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_insurance
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Old 01-13-2018, 07:41 PM   #222
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Originally Posted by Cut-Throat View Post
It's a guess when you buy any insurance, and not at all pointless. Whether you buy Fire Insurance, Flood Insurance, Health Insurance, Life Insurance. It's called Risk Management.
I consider CPP (or SS) be income, not insurance. Many people here retired early at the peak of their earning potential rather than work a few years longer to build a larger retirement fund. By taking CPP or SS early, they are doing exactly the same thing...enjoying the money now rather than trying to eke out the maximum return.
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Old 01-13-2018, 07:44 PM   #223
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Originally Posted by Floridatennisplayer View Post
I said no one knows when they are going to die. So stating that you are going to do better than others by waiting until age 70 to claim is purely a guess!!!!!!!

I would say it's a decision based upon the odds. And one's own foreseeable needs.

Odds seem to say that I will live long enough to make taking SS at 70 a good idea for a number of reasons. I base that on my reality, not a stroll through a cemetery full of deceased people I don't know anything about. As far as I know the cemetery may be in a town where coal mining was the main employer for the last 100 years. Or I might walk through a cemetery in Acciaroli, Italy where 10% of the people live to be over 100. I doubt if either is very relevant to my life.

Just my 2Ę. Take what you wish and leave the rest.
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Old 01-13-2018, 10:32 PM   #224
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By taking CPP or SS early, they are doing exactly the same thing...enjoying the money now rather than trying to eke out the maximum return.
The people who think the 4% SWR guideline makes sense can actually enjoy more money early in retirement by deferring their SS start date.
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Old 01-14-2018, 12:28 AM   #225
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I would say it's a decision based upon the odds. And one's own foreseeable needs.

Odds seem to say that I will live long enough to make taking SS at 70 a good idea for a number of reasons. I base that on my reality, not a stroll through a cemetery full of deceased people I don't know anything about. As far as I know the cemetery may be in a town where coal mining was the main employer for the last 100 years. Or I might walk through a cemetery in Acciaroli, Italy where 10% of the people live to be over 100. I doubt if either is very relevant to my life.

Just my 2Ę. Take what you wish and leave the rest.
No, I said the government knows the odds and they arenít giving anything away. They are like Vegas. People go there every day thinking theyíre going to beat the house and go home empty-handed. They know the odds! Sure you might by chance be an outlier. I didnít base anything on my cemetery visit. I just mentioned a lot of people in their graves younger than I expected. Nothing to do with SS actuarial tables.
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Old 01-14-2018, 02:43 AM   #226
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No, I said the government knows the odds and they arenít giving anything away.
Yup, just like Insurance Companies. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't buy insurance.
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Old 01-14-2018, 06:12 AM   #227
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I've seen many calculations here that make my head hurt as well.

I'm just curious if anyone has thrown in the often overlooked variable that SS payments are only taxed at 85% (during the 8-year delay window) versus IRA withdrawals being taxed at 100% during the same period.

I'm sure it's been done but my ER laziness precludes me from any further searches.
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Old 01-14-2018, 06:21 AM   #228
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I've seen many calculations here that make my head hurt as well.

I'm just curious if anyone has thrown in the often overlooked variable that SS payments are only taxed at 85% (during the 8-year delay window) versus IRA withdrawals being taxed at 100% during the same period.

I'm sure it's been done but my ER laziness precludes me from any further searches.
I've been advocating this for a few years. Plus, many states (like mine) do not tax SS as income; another 5.1% in my pocket.
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Old 01-14-2018, 07:04 AM   #229
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I find all these arguments funny and pretty much pointless. Unless you know exactly when you are going to die you are ALL JUST GUESSING! So take it when you think it’s best for you. It’s still a guess and unless you are an outlier.....it is all a wash.

Do me a favor. Seriously, go walk through a cemetery. I did that just last weekend putting flowers on my dads grave. What a wake up call! BTW he died in 1991 unexpectedly of a heart attack at 58. I am still heartbroken 27 years later. As I walked around I was astounded at the ages people died. So many men in their 60’s and 70’s. I wondered how many bragged...we have good genetics in our family and longevity. We are waiting.......

Take it whenever you want, it’s just a guess, enjoy it, enjoy your decision, enjoy your life, you are just splitting hairs.
Some people sure have thinner skins than others. As I stated many times, I have no opinion on when anyone takes their SS. It is a total guess as to which choice is better, for exactly as stated above. It is the REASONS that people use to claim early (or late) as if they are so sure they are valid. I said point blank in my post that many better brains than ours have done this analysis ad nauseum. Its nothing new. Beat to death. A simple, “I feel better taking it early, because I want it now or I don’t trust the government ” is reason enough. The “gut math” used is silly. As CRLL stated it all depends on future ROR which no one can know, just like they don’t know when they will die.

Do you think anyone in that cemetery regrets anything? They are dead. Were you able to ask their still living spouses if they were glad they got the larger survivors benefit? Substitute “I took a walk through a low income home for the aged” and then see if your attitude takes an about face. Who is regretting it more, the ones in the cemetery or the ones living in a nasty place in their old age?

To get sensitive (which I am not, in the least) as to what is right, wrong or best choice, is a waste of time, pointless, and to get upset to the point of name calling, certainly immature. It is a discussion. Chevy or Ford, rent or own. Yada yada yada.
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Old 01-14-2018, 07:36 AM   #230
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I've seen many calculations here that make my head hurt as well.

I'm just curious if anyone has thrown in the often overlooked variable that SS payments are only taxed at 85% (during the 8-year delay window) versus IRA withdrawals being taxed at 100% during the same period.

I'm sure it's been done but my ER laziness precludes me from any further searches.
Many people have tried. Somebody may have even shared a worksheet.

Yes, I'll pay lower taxes in the 62-70 period if I take SS at 62. But, then after 62 more of my income comes from IRA withdrawals, so I pay higher taxes then.

And I'll have higher RMDs if I defer. If I don't need the full RMD amount, I've got another tax complication. Then, think about withdrawals from taxable investments, Roth conversions, ACA premium subsidies, and not everyone is in the 85% taxable situation.

These tax optimization things get tied up in lots of individual circumstances. In my case, I played with the numbers long enough to convince myself that the taxes were pretty much a pay-me-now or pay-me-later situation.
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Old 01-14-2018, 12:54 PM   #231
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It really depends on good luck, good health and how much money you have. Take your numbers from ssa.gov. At 62 and $1650 a month you would get $403k by 83 years old. At 67 and $2300 a month you would get $441k by 83 years old. At 70 and $2900 a month you would $452k by 83 years old. So figure your budget and add 20%. Watch out for health insurance and tax, the chaos factors.
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Old 01-14-2018, 01:13 PM   #232
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No, I said the government knows the odds and they arenít giving anything away. .....
Then how do you explain that while longevity has improved over the last 20-30 years (a fact... due to advances in medicine, less smoking, et al partially offset by higher obesity) that the discount for taking SS early and the premium for delaying has not changed over the last 20-30 years?
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Old 01-14-2018, 06:19 PM   #233
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The people who think the 4% SWR guideline makes sense can actually enjoy more money early in retirement by deferring their SS start date.
That's the answer to the (IMHO correct) question:

What are the maximum dollars per month that can be "safely" spent (for some quantifiable value of "safe") over a period of indefinite length when exercising SS at age 62 and at 70?

Once we have those two amounts we know enough to make a choice between the two SS exercise dates.

The units for the two answer values are in dollars per month, not years (i.e. break even date,) or average number of people, or kumquats. If we end up with answers in any other unit than dollars per month, then we certainly got an answer that doesn't address the question posed above (of course even correct units is no guarantee we answered the question as posed or answered it correctly.)

Crunching the numbers so as to get a break-even age doesn't yield a choice to the original question because the choice then requires knowing the answer to another question (unknowable for most of us): when do I think I'll die?
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Old 01-14-2018, 06:34 PM   #234
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That's the answer to the (IMHO correct) question:

What are the maximum dollars per month that can be "safely" spent (for some quantifiable value of "safe") over a period of indefinite length when exercising SS at age 62 and at 70?

Once we have those two amounts we know enough to make a choice between the two SS exercise dates.
And the answer is:

http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...ml#post1993410
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Old 01-14-2018, 07:19 PM   #235
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For you. Not me.
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Old 01-16-2018, 02:21 AM   #236
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For you. Not me.
For most people it is not for them... Most of us here are wealthier than the average joe that need S.S. at age 62 just to pay the Bills... So we are talking about the 2% of Men that delay S.S. to age 70, as this chart indicates....

https://www.fool.com/retirement/gene...ecting-so.aspx

But this is a Forum, that has a lot of folks that are astute about their finances, can afford to delay. I have always been glad that I am not in the Majority. (Retired 18 years now and wintering in Australia) :-)
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Old 01-16-2018, 05:46 AM   #237
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I prefer to look at the 90% age where 90% have died and 10% survive past that and then add a couple more years for good measure.
This is an interesting thought. Is there any chart out there that shows at what ages people die?

e.g.
60-65 4%
66-70 8%
71-75 11%
76-80 22%
81-85 25%
86+
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Old 01-16-2018, 07:11 AM   #238
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For most people it is not for them... Most of us here are wealthier than the average joe that need S.S. at age 62 just to pay the Bills... So we are talking about the 2% of Men that delay S.S. to age 70, as this chart indicates....

https://www.fool.com/retirement/gene...ecting-so.aspx

But this is a Forum, that has a lot of folks that are astute about their finances, can afford to delay. I have always been glad that I am not in the Majority. (Retired 18 years now and wintering in Australia) :-)
When to start early retirement does not depend entirely on oneís financial situation. Of course oneís assessment of his personal longevity is important. But also important is oneís assessment of his chances of being means tested for a partial or total reduction in SS benefits.

Further, if a wealthy retiree believes that his income will cause him to be means tested, there is also the matter of when such means testing will begin. Because the SS cash flow shortfall is now ten years old and accelerating - and the SS cash flow shortfall is already increasing the federal debt held by the public - some may believe that means testing will start before 2034.
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Old 01-16-2018, 07:24 AM   #239
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When to start early retirement does not depend entirely on oneís financial situation. But also important is oneís assessment of his chances of being means tested for a partial or total reduction in SS benefits.

Further, if a wealthy retiree believes that his income will cause him to be means tested, there is also the matter of when such means testing will begin.
This is one of my top 3 reasons on why I took SS at 62.
As a 'wealthy retiree', "take the money and run" is my mantra on this issue.

(Yes, I understand the current means testing of taxation on SS; no need to go there)
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Old 01-16-2018, 07:35 AM   #240
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Life expectancy

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This is an interesting thought. Is there any chart out there that shows at what ages people die?

e.g.
60-65 4%
66-70 8%
71-75 11%
76-80 22%
81-85 25%
86+
Try this link from SSA

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...8s8rvid_0W4juQ
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