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10-17-2020, 10:17 AM
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#21
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 17,169
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AtlasShrugged
Here's one cause of bad decisions that's really worth remembering.
"Being influenced by the actions of people who are playing a different game than you are. The idea that advice can be good for one person and terrible for another is rarely obvious. Taking your cues and advice from people with different goals, abilities, and desires than you is an easy road to misery. But it’s common, because smart people you look up to tell you it’s good advice. The number of things that are true for everyone in finance is small; everything else is just figuring out how much risk you want to take and what you want out of life, which is different for everyone."
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There is a lot of truth in the above especially if the smart person is also wealthy. As Tevye said in Fiddler on the Roof, "When you're rich they think you really know."
Note my signature below:
__________________
Comparison is the thief of joy
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
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10-17-2020, 12:01 PM
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#22
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 5,800
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Good article.
One of the things I so enjoy about this forum is different perspectives, but all focused on helping others achieve financial goals, whether FIRE or SIRE. I don't often see a "you should do this" but more often "have you considered...". Most posts are focused on helping and giving information, so others can make their own decisions.
Along with the numerous other interesting forums, I learn so much here.!
__________________
Give a Man a fish, he will eat for a day.
Teach a Man to fish, he will eat for a lifetime.
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10-20-2020, 03:58 PM
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#23
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2019
Location: Living room couch
Posts: 153
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The problem with taking advice is you may be letting someone else do your thinking for you. "Advice" should only be a data point in the decision you ultimately make.
Yes, you should listen to 70 and 80 year-olds and consider their advice and guidance as part of the equation but not the answer.
Humans usually learn better from their mistakes rather than their successes. But sometimes they learn the wrong things from either. Listening to someone tell you about how they did something and more importantly, what did not work for them, may help keep you from making a similar mistake. If nothing else you may become aware of an unanticipated potential pitfall simply because someone shared their experience with you.
Ray
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10-20-2020, 04:35 PM
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#24
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Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 10,653
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Quote:
Originally Posted by target2019
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Kahan has an interesting point, but I wonder if the people lower on the 'ordinary science intelligence' scale and the 'actively open-minded thinking' scale simply didn't care enough when filling out the questionnaire. I can just see them (whether they identified themselves as liberal or conservative) saying (in my best SoCa teen accent) "whut-EV-arrrrr" and just picking something.
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10-20-2020, 05:52 PM
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#25
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gone traveling
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 424
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His recent book "The Psychology of Money' is well written also.
Good luck & Best wishes....
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10-20-2020, 06:33 PM
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#26
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,588
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DEmotivational. See dispair.com
Quote:
Originally Posted by 38Chevy454
Reminds me of one of those satire motivational posters:
"None of us is dumb as all of us"
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__________________
I have outlived most of the people I don't like and I am working on the rest.
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10-21-2020, 07:29 AM
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#27
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Dryer sheet wannabe
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: Bay Area, California, USA
Posts: 18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed_The_Gypsy
DEmotivational. See dispair.com
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Ah, despair.com. One of my long-time tribes!
One of my favorites: "The only common denominator in all your failed relationships . . . . is you."
And on a poster I had at work years ago hanging behind my door:
"All we ask here is that you give us your heart" (underneath a picture of a Mayan temple).
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10-21-2020, 07:34 AM
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#28
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gone traveling
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 3,375
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chassis
This rampant on bogleheads. The advice from long time posters on that site comes from a perspective of 70 and 80 year olds, advising 30 year olds on "what I would do".
A 30 year old should not do what an 80 year old would do, financially speaking.
Nothing wrong with being 70 or 80. I hope to achieve that some day, God willing. Financial actions and strategies for people on that site, and probably this one, are vastly different because of different situations and goals.
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I visit b-heads 1-2x/mo. I don't see most responses the way you see them. I see them more of recommending what they would do investment-wise if 30, not what they would for themselves at whatever age they are.
That said, yes they all reco buy & hold for long-term, not frequent changes. But they also reco rebalancing periodically or if circumstances change. If day trading ought to be the recommendation for some people, then you're right that all b-heads reco the same thing.
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10-21-2020, 03:47 PM
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#29
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Austin
Posts: 246
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I enjoyed reading this article. Years ago I was doing some research on what makes scientists successful for a class I was reaching. One thing that stood out was that older scientists would abandon an idea if there was evidence that contradicted it, but younger ones would ignore any disconfirming evidence. I find this to be true. Many people (including me) will often stick to ideas they already have, even when new information comes along.
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10-22-2020, 08:56 PM
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#30
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gone traveling
Join Date: Aug 2020
Posts: 682
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NXR7
The problem with taking advice is you may be letting someone else do your thinking for you. "Advice" should only be a data point in the decision you ultimately make.
Yes, you should listen to 70 and 80 year-olds and consider their advice and guidance as part of the equation but not the answer.
Humans usually learn better from their mistakes rather than their successes. But sometimes they learn the wrong things from either. Listening to someone tell you about how they did something and more importantly, what did not work for them, may help keep you from making a similar mistake. If nothing else you may become aware of an unanticipated potential pitfall simply because someone shared their experience with you.
Ray
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@NXR7 I agree with this, to listen to people and add their views into the big pot for consideration.
This summer I was speaking with a mid-80s yr old gentleman who is/was a successful investor for himself, and whom I respect. He was talking glowingly about 3% dividend stocks. From his point of view, what he told me makes perfect sense. From my point of view as an early 50s yr old, I think it makes very little sense.
Investing discussion sites skew higher in age than many site participants may realize. This needs to be taken into account when evaluating advice.
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10-23-2020, 08:40 AM
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#31
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Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 10,653
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If more people played it with "strong convictions, loosely held", everybody would be better off. Unfortunately, that's not the default behavior mode; nobody wants to have been wrong. Read "Mistakes Were Made, But Not By Me" to get a taste of this. I find the topic fascinating.
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11-27-2020, 11:29 AM
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#32
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2020
Posts: 93
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A very interesting thread!
This is the tribe I strive to belong to--the tribe of people who always seek to understand, who seek new evidence, who seek wisdom, who seek to know the WHY (not just the WHAT).
Interestingly, one of the top 2 reasons I left academia is because I had a hard time finding such people.
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11-27-2020, 11:40 AM
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#33
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 10,331
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FroogalStoodent
A very interesting thread! This is the tribe I strive to belong to--the tribe of people who always seek to understand, who seek new evidence, who seek wisdom, who seek to know the WHY (not just the WHAT). Interestingly, one of the top 2 reasons I left academia is because I had a hard time finding such people.
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I suggest some easy reading:
" Misbehaving" by Richard Thaler https://www.amazon.com/Misbehaving-B.../dp/039335279X
" Thinking Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman: https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast.../dp/0374533555
" Your Money and Your Brain" by Jason Zweig: https://www.amazon.com/Your-Money-Br.../dp/0743276698
Lots of good takeaways here (Thaler and Kahneman are Nobel winners), one of which is that none of us is as rational as we believe ourselves to be. Hence, " Misbehaving"
__________________
Ignoramus et ignorabimus
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11-27-2020, 12:16 PM
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#34
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 5,856
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Never been much of a follower when it came to career decisions or investing. Bit of an outlier but it seems to have worked for me.
When it comes to most decisions, especially money, it was always 'trust but verify"
I, we, have never been hesitant to accept our lack of knowledge in some areas and seek out recommended fee for service professional advice prior to making a decision with serious consequences.
Legal, accounting/tax, actuarial, finance advice...whatever. Our experience has been that the professional fee was negligible compared to the value of advice or direction received.
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11-27-2020, 02:48 PM
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#35
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2020
Posts: 93
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Quote:
I'm actually pretty familiar with this information, though I've never read Your Money and Your Brain. My academic training was in the area of judgment and decision-making
In reply to the above academics, try checking out the work of Gerd Gigerenzer: https://hbr.org/2014/06/instinct-can...tical-thinking
It comes with the usual caveats--his arguments only hold water under certain circumstances, it doesn't necessarily invalidate the Tversky-and-Kahneman heuristics-and-biases approach, etc. But I think his work is eye-opening in its own right, and that shift in perspective should be taken seriously.
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11-27-2020, 02:53 PM
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#36
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2020
Posts: 93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brett
Never been much of a follower when it came to career decisions or investing. Bit of an outlier but it seems to have worked for me.
When it comes to most decisions, especially money, it was always 'trust but verify"
I, we, have never been hesitant to accept our lack of knowledge in some areas and seek out recommended fee for service professional advice prior to making a decision with serious consequences.
Legal, accounting/tax, actuarial, finance advice...whatever. Our experience has been that the professional fee was negligible compared to the value of advice or direction received.
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If you truly trust someone/something, you don't need to verify. Though I admit that 'trust but verify' sounds better than 'hard-nosed skepticism.' I'm not afraid to admit I'm a hard-nosed skeptic
The advice of a competent professional--especially regarding finance or law--is often a bargain
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11-27-2020, 04:04 PM
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#37
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 10,331
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FroogalStoodent
I'm actually pretty familiar with this information, though I've never read Your Money and Your Brain. My academic training was in the area of judgment and decision-making
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If that's your background, I think you'll enjoy it. His angle is biochemistry (dopamine) and how it (basically drug addiction) encourages risk taking.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FroogalStoodent
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Thanks. I went to Amazon but he has quite a bibliography. Is there one of his books that you'd recommend?
One of the good things I've gotten here is reading recommendations, like for Kahneman and Thaler.
__________________
Ignoramus et ignorabimus
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11-28-2020, 11:05 AM
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#38
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2020
Posts: 93
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Thank you, I'll be sure to check out Your Money and Your Brain! It does sound interesting!
Quote:
Thanks. I went to Amazon but he has quite a bibliography. Is there one of his books that you'd recommend?
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Oh, you can get most of the flavor of Gigerenzer's research program from the various web articles/brief YouTube interviews from the past 15 years or so. I personally started here: https://www.edge.org/conversation/sm...erd-gigerenzer
I've read "Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart" (1999) and "Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox" (2001). Those are both highly academic and rather dense, though less so than much academic research. To illustrate what I mean, there are chapters available here: https://pure.mpg.de/rest/items/item_...102372/content
and here: https://pure.mpg.de/rest/items/item_...102904/content
If you stick with the interviews and web articles, that'll get you to an understanding that's about as solid as reading a popular book on the topic.
But if you're interested in the nitty-gritty details, searching scholarly repositories--even simple Google searches!--will get you some of the actual research in the field. Though much academic research is stuck behind paywalls, people in JDM largely do a respectable job of keeping their information in the public domain.
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12-28-2020, 12:06 PM
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#39
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 10,331
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@ZachTB, thanks for pointing me to Gigerenzer. I bought"Calculated Risks" and just finished reading. Nothing really revolutionary there IMO but he does a good job making Bayesian analysis more intuitive. I needed the help. Working with the percentages was/is hard for me.
__________________
Ignoramus et ignorabimus
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12-28-2020, 12:11 PM
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#40
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 17,169
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I've found that most bad decisions are made at times of anger or impatience. Often both.
__________________
Comparison is the thief of joy
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
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