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02-21-2020, 03:17 PM
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#181
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Portland, Oregon
Posts: 7,107
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I am beginning to wonder how we are going to pay for all this care. Health insurers will need to increase their rates next year. Medicare will take a short term hit.. short term reflecting the fact that many older recipients will die earlier than they otherwise would.
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Duck bjorn.
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02-21-2020, 03:36 PM
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#182
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brat
I am beginning to wonder how we are going to pay for all this care. Health insurers will need to increase their rates next year. Medicare will take a short term hit.. short term reflecting the fact that many older recipients will die earlier than they otherwise would.
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If "we" means the US, then we still have only 16 cases on US land, plus about two dozen cruise passengers tested positive. The cost is minuscule so far.
If it gets really bad like in Wuhan, then there's no additional care to be given once hospitals and medical staff are already maxed out. The cost only goes so high, and cannot increase further, I guess. I think many patients in Wuhan just died without causing a lot of expenses.
Let's hope we will not have to find out how the US handles that.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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02-21-2020, 03:40 PM
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#183
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Portland
Posts: 2,038
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I found an interesting article on one of the boglehead boards, I hope it hasn't been posted here before. The article is about a week old.
/snip/
A slowdown in China alone could trigger a global recession. While the current level of commodity prices doesn’t yet imply a global recession, it is quite close. If the prices of oil and iron ore decline by another 20 per cent, a global recession would be upon us.
If the manufacturing disruption lasts through March, production in other industrial economies like Japan and South Korea would be affected. Emerging economies that make shoes and garments will have trouble sustaining production.
The migration of downstream manufacturing to Southeast and South Asia is backed by supplies of materials and parts from China. In this scenario, a global recession becomes highly likely.
Even if Beijing orders all factories to restart, events beyond its control may stop production anyway. If one virus carrier is found in one factory, part of its workforce would need to be quarantined. The factories down the supply chain will be affected. China’s manufacturing sector will have to depend on luck to operate normally.
In the worst-case scenario, all human efforts won’t be enough to contain the outbreak. The world must wait for the real saviour – summer time – to break the crisis. The prolonged disruption to global supply chains would lead to bad earnings for multinational companies for two quarters.
The bad news may trigger the US stock market bubble to burst, which is likely to be more devastating than the crash in 2008. The global ramifications are easy to imagine.
The US Federal Reserve appears determined to prolong the bubble. Despite the record low US unemployment rate, it introduced another round of quantitative easing last autumn – about US$400 billion since September – to protect the bubble. While the Fed may come up with wild theories to justify its actions, it is clearly in the pocket of those who benefit from the bubble.
Since the 2008 global financial crisis, no major economy has cut their debt leverage. The biggest two – China and the US – have increased it. All these debts have not weighed the world down, because asset prices have risen faster than debt, making businesses and households feel secure.
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02-21-2020, 04:13 PM
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#184
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Pharmaceutical companies in India already felt the pinch, because they needed some ingredients from China. I saw this news a few days ago.
Just now, India government announced restriction of export of antibiotics and some other products, in order to have enough for their domestic use.
I also recall many years ago (20?) reading about the closure of a French factory making aspirin. It was said that it was the last place making aspirin outside of China.
PS. No, I just found the story again. It was in 2008 that a Lyon aspirin factory shut down, being the last one outside of China.
PPS. A correction: The article said that that Lyon factory was the last one in Europe and the US. There might be some others in countries outside of China.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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02-21-2020, 04:43 PM
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#185
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 16,972
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Certainly points out how drugs are really a national security issue, like oil, food.
Unfortunately, we gave away our drug production to other countries.
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Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
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02-21-2020, 06:04 PM
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#186
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 37,931
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Yep!!
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Retired since summer 1999.
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02-21-2020, 06:52 PM
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#187
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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From Wikipedia:
Quote:
India is a leading country in the world's generic drugs market, exporting US$17.3 billion worth of drugs in the 2017–18 (April–March) year. India exports generic drugs to the United States and the European Union.
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__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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02-21-2020, 07:36 PM
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#188
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 966
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Another update from my wife with relatives in Liaoning Province near North Korea: Very few new cases in Liaoning Province but people are still fearful about returning to work.
There is a sad story coming out from Wuhan. A husband got the Coronavirus and came home and he infected his wife, his two children and his mother and father.
All of them did not survive. An entire family wiped out. After hearing this story, the fear factor hit the ceiling.
My wife is in direct phone contact with her relatives and this is only one of the story that her relatives informs my wife. It will be a while before things will return to normal.
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02-21-2020, 11:21 PM
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#189
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 16,972
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Went to our local Chinese food takeout store to pick up a lunch order.
Figured the risk is low, and maybe they need the business more now.
Expected it to be empty, since all the stories of empty Chinese restaurants, but surprise it was busy.
A fellow was even eating in there.
__________________
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
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02-22-2020, 04:49 AM
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#190
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 8,368
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunset
Went to our local Chinese food takeout store
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Yesterday saw my urologist who is Chinese, and next Tuesday DW has an appointment with our dentist who is also Chinese.......life on the edge in Belleville!
__________________
"Exit, pursued by a bear."
The Winter's Tale, William Shakespeare
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02-22-2020, 05:42 AM
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#191
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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A refusal to export antibiotics and other drugs and medical supplies could get bad quickly for the US and elsewhere. Time to stock up on anything you take regularly.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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02-22-2020, 05:49 AM
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#192
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,514
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
A refusal to export antibiotics and other drugs and medical supplies could get bad quickly for the US and elsewhere. Time to stock up on anything you take regularly.
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How does one stock up on antibiotics and prescription medications?
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02-22-2020, 05:51 AM
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#193
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 3,405
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I think we made aspirin in freshman chemistry lab. Acetyl salicylic acid IIRC.
https://www.pharmaceutical-journal.c...irstPass=false
We may have to make it here again. Either that, or lay in a supply of powdered willow bark for your emergency kit...
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02-22-2020, 06:06 AM
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#194
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB
How does one stock up on antibiotics and prescription medications?
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Can't help you with other scrips, but every prepper knows one can buy common antibiotics over the counter as long as they are labeled for use on pet birds and fish. These are pharmacologically equipment to what a pharmacy dispenses and probably come from the same factories.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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02-22-2020, 06:22 AM
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#195
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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India still has supplies for the next 2 months, but wants to be cautious. They would be really worried if the supply chain does not resume by mid March.
See: https://theprint.in/health/india-to-...-china/368229/
Quote:
The Narendra Modi government has decided to impose restrictions on the export of 12 drug ingredients, mainly antibiotics, hormone pills and vitamins, as supplies of these ingredients remain disrupted due to the continuing lockdown in coronavirus-hit China.
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APIs (active pharmaceutical ingredients) are the raw materials used to manufacture drugs. For example, Paracetamol is the API for Crocin. Indian drug-makers import around 70 per cent of their total APIs, also known as bulk drugs, from China.
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Indian drug-makers had, last week, handed over to the committee a list of 57 APIs that are likely to go out of stock if China is under a prolonged lockdown.
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The list contained antibiotics such as Azithromycin, Amoxicillin, Ofloxacin, Gentamicin and Metronidazole, neuropathic drug Gabapentin, vitamin tablets and capsules such as B12, B1, B6, and E, female hormone progesterone and anti-cardiac arrest drug Atorvastatin, among others.
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The committee has taken stock of all these drugs and their available inventory before proposing the ban on exports.
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__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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02-22-2020, 06:26 AM
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#196
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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02-22-2020, 06:32 AM
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#197
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 8,368
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No wonder the urologist & the dentist both don hazmat suits when we arrive.
__________________
"Exit, pursued by a bear."
The Winter's Tale, William Shakespeare
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02-22-2020, 09:48 AM
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#198
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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The Chinese are not making anything that the rest of the world cannot do, from the lowly aspirin to complicated computer chips. In fact, the electronic chips are made in factories set up by western countries. They only make everything cheaper.
A supply disruption suddenly awakes the world to the peril of concentration of manufacturing in one place. We can do without new iPhones, but medicine is another matter.
When this blows over, will something different be set up? Or it is quickly forgotten, and everyone goes back to the old way?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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02-22-2020, 10:09 AM
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#199
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Upstate
Posts: 2,944
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Can't help you with other scrips, but every prepper knows one can buy common antibiotics over the counter as long as they are labeled for use on pet birds and fish. These are pharmacologically equipment to what a pharmacy dispenses and probably come from the same factories.
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Timely discussion. So, earlier today I showed my 17 year old DC some "Fish" medicine I had ordered a while back. At first DC thought I was an old crazy person, especially after I said that I hoped that I would never have to use said Fish medicine but that DC should know where it was being kept (and to leave it alone).
So I just showed DC the announcement about India regarding exports - and I think DC's 'understanding' light just got a little brighter.
To the other crazies out there - stick with Thomas Labs, stick with pills not powders). Pray you never have to use them.
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02-22-2020, 10:15 AM
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#200
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Upstate
Posts: 2,944
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
The Chinese are not making anything that the rest of the world cannot do, from the lowly aspirin to complicated computer chips. In fact, the electronic chips are made in factories set up by western countries. They only make everything cheaper.
A supply disruption suddenly awakes the world to the peril of concentration of manufacturing in one place. We can do without new iPhones, but medicine is another matter.
When this blows over, will something different be set up? Or it is quickly forgotten, and everyone goes back to the old way?
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I've been wondering about this too. I wonder if this 'lesson' will wake companies up. No "Single Points of Failure" is a mantra for IT disaster recovery and continuous operation plans -- yet so many companies now seem to have single points of failure in their supply chain sourcing.
Or, after the dust is settled will people go back to their old pre-outbreak thinking?
Is there opportunity domestically for in-sourcing? Dunno, but trying to figure it out.
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