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02-08-2020, 07:51 PM
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#41
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,290
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Quote:
Originally Posted by footenote
I'd give NCV at least a 50% chance of disrupting supply chains for six to twelve months (if not more).
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That's a hell of a monster prediction!!
What are you basing that on?
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02-08-2020, 08:46 PM
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#42
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Last I heard, the regime was saying that the factories would reopen Monday. That seems unlikely, so how long will it be?
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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02-08-2020, 09:58 PM
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#43
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 16,973
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I think it's pretty hard for everyone to not work for weeks on end. At some point people have to go back to work or starve in their homes...
__________________
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
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02-08-2020, 10:44 PM
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#44
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunset
I think it's pretty hard for everyone to not work for weeks on end. At some point people have to go back to work or starve in their homes...
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If you call the quarantine off before this stuff has burned itself out, the downside risk is a raging pandemic.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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02-09-2020, 03:56 AM
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#45
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 1,688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Last I heard, the regime was saying that the factories would reopen Monday. That seems unlikely, so how long will it be?
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Reports from this part of the world are that factories in a number of areas will resume production next week but not in the worst affected areas which will continue under lockdown. Unfortunately, a lot of these reports are conflicting so it's not clear what will or will not happen.
Possibly the most reliable source of information will be from companies listed on HKEx which have disclosure obligations. I'll be keeping an eye out for these.
__________________
Budgeting is a skill practised by people who are bad at politics.
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02-09-2020, 05:45 AM
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#46
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Northern Illinois
Posts: 16,543
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Lots of companies in China closing for a while. Now I know why I haven't received the drone that I ordered. But they stayed open long enough to take the payment from my credit card.
https://dronedj.com/2020/02/02/drone...f-coronavirus/
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02-09-2020, 07:02 AM
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#47
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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I wonder how long until we see the effect of the Chinese shutdown at Walmart, as evidenced by empty shelves. What is not made in China anymore?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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02-09-2020, 07:25 AM
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#48
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 5,991
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
I wonder how long until we see the effect of the Chinese shutdown at Walmart, as evidenced by empty shelves. What is not made in China anymore?
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I did find a toilet brush that was made in the USA. I was so proud of my country at that moment!
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02-09-2020, 07:28 AM
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#49
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Conroe, Texas
Posts: 18,593
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
I wonder how long until we see the effect of the Chinese shutdown at Walmart, as evidenced by empty shelves. What is not made in China anymore?
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I just bought an ignition coil (module) for my 2005 Mustang and it's made in Spain!
__________________
*********Go Astros!*********
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02-09-2020, 07:37 AM
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#50
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
I wonder how long until we see the effect of the Chinese shutdown at Walmart, as evidenced by empty shelves. What is not made in China anymore?
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Half empty shelves seem to be normal at Walmart so it might be hard to tell.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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02-09-2020, 08:10 AM
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#51
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Mid-Atlantic
Posts: 2,642
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__________________
-Looking to FIRE in the mid-2020s, which would be our mid-50s.
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02-09-2020, 09:16 AM
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#52
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 5,170
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
I wonder how long until we see the effect of the Chinese shutdown at Walmart, as evidenced by empty shelves. What is not made in China anymore?
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Talking about having too many eggs in one basket! We (well, "They") need to rethink business strategies/contingency plans...
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02-09-2020, 09:56 AM
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#53
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Portland, Oregon
Posts: 7,107
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Both Mohamed El-Erian and Jim Cramer are both saying beware of the equity market, the Coronavirus is a serious negative for the economy. Don't buy on the dip.
Then an article was written by Michael Bloom today (2/8) finds a recommendation to buy Royal Carribean:
Royal Caribbean - Macquarie, Outperform rating
“We think impact from nCoV is overblown and raise TP. ... Underlying business should weather virus thanks to North America. ... We don’t think the coronavirus impact will carry particular weight on the underlying business fundamentals esp. given N.A. strength. China, while a positive catalyst in the RCL story overall, was only expected to be 6% of 2020 capacity and 4% Q1, and we don’t expect serious long-term erosion in consumer confidence from this.”
Good luck with that.
__________________
Duck bjorn.
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02-09-2020, 10:33 AM
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#54
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jul 2019
Posts: 679
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It's meaningless to predict / guess for events like this (virus and market). Consistent investing and not touching it for anything is what takes to win.
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02-09-2020, 10:43 AM
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#55
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Mid-Atlantic
Posts: 2,642
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teetee
It's meaningless to predict / guess for events like this (virus and market). Consistent investing and not touching it for anything is what takes to win.
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rAmen! Rebalancing and sticking to your AA is the only sure way to buy low and sell high!
__________________
-Looking to FIRE in the mid-2020s, which would be our mid-50s.
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02-09-2020, 11:35 AM
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#56
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,290
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brat
Both Mohamed El-Erian and Jim Cramer are both saying beware of the equity market, the Coronavirus is a serious negative for the economy. Don't buy on the dip.
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Yeah, those two clowns saying not to do something pretty much guarantees you should do the opposite!
I distinctly remember them in late December 2018 swearing off the stock market complete with every scare headline narrative you could imagine. What's unfortunate is that people act on their words and really hurt their long term financial goals.
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02-09-2020, 11:41 AM
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#57
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,518
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FREE866
Yeah, those two clowns saying not to do something pretty much guarantees you should do the opposite!
I distinctly remember them in late December 2018 swearing off the stock market complete with every scare headline narrative you could imagine. What's unfortunate is that people act on their words and really hurt their long term financial goals.
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Do you have a link for Mohamed El-Erian making that comment. Very unlike him.
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02-09-2020, 11:48 AM
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#58
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,290
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB
Do you have a link for Mohamed El-Erian making that comment. Very unlike him.
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I looked for it and couldn't find it. Unlike him?
he makes comments like that often...
heres one I found from 2014 calling the market "exuberant"
https://money.cnn.com/2014/09/23/inv...ant/index.html
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02-09-2020, 11:50 AM
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#59
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,518
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FREE866
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Exuberant is quite different from “swearing off the stock market complete with every scare headline narrative you could imagine”. I’ve never heard or read anything by him that comes close to that, hence my curiosity.
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02-09-2020, 11:56 AM
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#60
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,290
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB
Exuberant is quite different from “swearing off the stock market complete with every scare headline narrative you could imagine”. I’ve never heard or read anything by him that comes close to that, hence my curiosity.
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The "exuberant" article I posted was from 2014. Which obviously was one bad call.
My initial comment was about December of 2018. As I said , I can't find that one.
He's an economist--they are often wrong--and he's one of them.
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