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Old 02-08-2020, 07:51 PM   #41
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I'd give NCV at least a 50% chance of disrupting supply chains for six to twelve months (if not more).

That's a hell of a monster prediction!!
What are you basing that on?
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Old 02-08-2020, 08:46 PM   #42
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Last I heard, the regime was saying that the factories would reopen Monday. That seems unlikely, so how long will it be?
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Old 02-08-2020, 09:58 PM   #43
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I think it's pretty hard for everyone to not work for weeks on end. At some point people have to go back to work or starve in their homes...
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Old 02-08-2020, 10:44 PM   #44
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I think it's pretty hard for everyone to not work for weeks on end. At some point people have to go back to work or starve in their homes...
If you call the quarantine off before this stuff has burned itself out, the downside risk is a raging pandemic.
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Old 02-09-2020, 03:56 AM   #45
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Last I heard, the regime was saying that the factories would reopen Monday. That seems unlikely, so how long will it be?
Reports from this part of the world are that factories in a number of areas will resume production next week but not in the worst affected areas which will continue under lockdown. Unfortunately, a lot of these reports are conflicting so it's not clear what will or will not happen.

Possibly the most reliable source of information will be from companies listed on HKEx which have disclosure obligations. I'll be keeping an eye out for these.
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Old 02-09-2020, 05:45 AM   #46
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Lots of companies in China closing for a while. Now I know why I haven't received the drone that I ordered. But they stayed open long enough to take the payment from my credit card.

https://dronedj.com/2020/02/02/drone...f-coronavirus/
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Old 02-09-2020, 07:02 AM   #47
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I wonder how long until we see the effect of the Chinese shutdown at Walmart, as evidenced by empty shelves. What is not made in China anymore?
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Old 02-09-2020, 07:25 AM   #48
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I wonder how long until we see the effect of the Chinese shutdown at Walmart, as evidenced by empty shelves. What is not made in China anymore?
I did find a toilet brush that was made in the USA. I was so proud of my country at that moment!
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Old 02-09-2020, 07:28 AM   #49
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I wonder how long until we see the effect of the Chinese shutdown at Walmart, as evidenced by empty shelves. What is not made in China anymore?
I just bought an ignition coil (module) for my 2005 Mustang and it's made in Spain!
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Old 02-09-2020, 07:37 AM   #50
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I wonder how long until we see the effect of the Chinese shutdown at Walmart, as evidenced by empty shelves. What is not made in China anymore?
Half empty shelves seem to be normal at Walmart so it might be hard to tell.
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Old 02-09-2020, 08:10 AM   #51
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Old 02-09-2020, 09:16 AM   #52
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I wonder how long until we see the effect of the Chinese shutdown at Walmart, as evidenced by empty shelves. What is not made in China anymore?
Talking about having too many eggs in one basket! We (well, "They") need to rethink business strategies/contingency plans...
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Old 02-09-2020, 09:56 AM   #53
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Both Mohamed El-Erian and Jim Cramer are both saying beware of the equity market, the Coronavirus is a serious negative for the economy. Don't buy on the dip.

Then an article was written by Michael Bloom today (2/8) finds a recommendation to buy Royal Carribean:

Royal Caribbean - Macquarie, Outperform rating
“We think impact from nCoV is overblown and raise TP. ... Underlying business should weather virus thanks to North America. ... We don’t think the coronavirus impact will carry particular weight on the underlying business fundamentals esp. given N.A. strength. China, while a positive catalyst in the RCL story overall, was only expected to be 6% of 2020 capacity and 4% Q1, and we don’t expect serious long-term erosion in consumer confidence from this.”

Good luck with that.
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Old 02-09-2020, 10:33 AM   #54
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It's meaningless to predict / guess for events like this (virus and market). Consistent investing and not touching it for anything is what takes to win.
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Old 02-09-2020, 10:43 AM   #55
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It's meaningless to predict / guess for events like this (virus and market). Consistent investing and not touching it for anything is what takes to win.

rAmen! Rebalancing and sticking to your AA is the only sure way to buy low and sell high!
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Old 02-09-2020, 11:35 AM   #56
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Both Mohamed El-Erian and Jim Cramer are both saying beware of the equity market, the Coronavirus is a serious negative for the economy. Don't buy on the dip.



Yeah, those two clowns saying not to do something pretty much guarantees you should do the opposite!
I distinctly remember them in late December 2018 swearing off the stock market complete with every scare headline narrative you could imagine. What's unfortunate is that people act on their words and really hurt their long term financial goals.
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Old 02-09-2020, 11:41 AM   #57
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Yeah, those two clowns saying not to do something pretty much guarantees you should do the opposite!
I distinctly remember them in late December 2018 swearing off the stock market complete with every scare headline narrative you could imagine. What's unfortunate is that people act on their words and really hurt their long term financial goals.
Do you have a link for Mohamed El-Erian making that comment. Very unlike him.
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Old 02-09-2020, 11:48 AM   #58
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Do you have a link for Mohamed El-Erian making that comment. Very unlike him.

I looked for it and couldn't find it. Unlike him?
he makes comments like that often...


heres one I found from 2014 calling the market "exuberant"

https://money.cnn.com/2014/09/23/inv...ant/index.html
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Old 02-09-2020, 11:50 AM   #59
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I looked for it and couldn't find it. Unlike him?
he makes comments like that often...


heres one I found from 2014 calling the market "exuberant"

https://money.cnn.com/2014/09/23/inv...ant/index.html
Exuberant is quite different from “swearing off the stock market complete with every scare headline narrative you could imagine”. I’ve never heard or read anything by him that comes close to that, hence my curiosity.
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Old 02-09-2020, 11:56 AM   #60
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Exuberant is quite different from “swearing off the stock market complete with every scare headline narrative you could imagine”. I’ve never heard or read anything by him that comes close to that, hence my curiosity.

The "exuberant" article I posted was from 2014. Which obviously was one bad call.
My initial comment was about December of 2018. As I said , I can't find that one.

He's an economist--they are often wrong--and he's one of them.
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