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02-09-2020, 12:02 PM
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#61
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Portland, Oregon
Posts: 7,107
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__________________
Duck bjorn.
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02-09-2020, 12:23 PM
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#62
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,518
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brat
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Links of El-Erian warning that market dips from nCoV scare are not buying opportunities.
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02-09-2020, 12:24 PM
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#63
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Portland, Oregon
Posts: 7,107
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That is my take as well.
__________________
Duck bjorn.
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02-09-2020, 12:33 PM
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#64
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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After jumping in too early on dips repeatedly, I have learned caution. In this case, there really hasn't been a dip in the indicies. It is also really hard to gauge the risk here as of yet. So until it becomes clear how big the risk is and the market actually dips, I fail to see any buying opportunity.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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02-09-2020, 12:39 PM
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#65
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,840
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FREE866
Yeah, those two clowns saying not to do something pretty much guarantees you should do the opposite!
I distinctly remember them in late December 2018 swearing off the stock market complete with every scare headline narrative you could imagine. What's unfortunate is that people act on their words and really hurt their long term financial goals.
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El Erain claimed the market decline was overdone and the economy was in good shape and was a buying opportunity but warned people need to let technicals overwhelm financials. Quite the opposite of what is said here:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/21/moha...-prophecy.html
Quote:
El-Erian believes such worries are unwarranted and a function of forgetting just “how special” last year was for investors. “Last year was exceptional. We had returns, no volatility, and every single correlation worked for the investor. The average of two years, it doesn’t look that bad.”
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02-09-2020, 12:51 PM
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#66
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Portland, Oregon
Posts: 7,107
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But that was before the coronavirus became widespread and China shut down Wuhan. Circumstances changed and his comments reflect that new economic reality.
I really don't follow El-Erian but noticed that his comments were similar to Jim Cramer's. One thoughtful, the other ... well whatever.
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Duck bjorn.
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02-09-2020, 01:39 PM
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#67
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: The Great Wide Open
Posts: 3,779
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ronstar
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Are they closed because of the virus or the New Year celebration?
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02-09-2020, 01:40 PM
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#68
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winemaker
Are they closed because of the virus or the New Year celebration?
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Yes.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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02-09-2020, 01:51 PM
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#69
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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After the long New Year holiday, the Chinese are supposed to be back to work on Feb 3, I believe.
The shutdown was extended another week due to the virus outbreak, and some factories may reopen on Feb 10. The ones close to Wuhan or in the Hubei province will most likely stay closed.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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02-09-2020, 01:52 PM
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#70
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,518
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winemaker
Are they closed because of the virus or the New Year celebration?
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They closed for one and stay closed for the other. They’re trying to reopen, and at the same time, trying to contain the virus by limiting travel. Travel between China and other countries is not likely to resume until the visit transmission mechanism is under control. Travel within China - who knows. There is lots of potential for more and greater disruption of economic activity, which is El-Arian’s point.
At the same time, China is likely to respond with boatloads of stimulus, and if things start to slow around the world, major central banks will do what they can. That might create a buying opportunity.
We’re risk averse so will protect against the downside for now...
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02-09-2020, 02:14 PM
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#71
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Northern Illinois
Posts: 16,543
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winemaker
Are they closed because of the virus or the New Year celebration?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Yes.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB
They closed for one and stay closed for the other.....At the same time, China is likely to respond with boatloads of stimulus...
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Reason seems to be both. The drone company DJI email to me gave the reason for the delay as the Chinese New Year. Drone DJ.com on their website states:
“Then, we heard that shipping drones from China to other countries would be impacted by the spreading Coronavirus.
Most recently we have seen messages on social media, that DJI had sent out a letter to official resellers saying that the DJI offices in China will remain tentatively closed until February 10.
DJI released the following statement:
“DJI is closely monitoring the situation and following relevant guidelines. We will institute precautionary measures for all employees upon return to office on February 10, as well as continue to distribute relevant health guidance. Our top priority is the health and safety of our employees””
As to Michael’s “China is likely to respond with boatloads of stimulus..” Looks to have started and it has trickled down to me - DJI has given me a $10 online credit to be used within 15 days of my drone delivery.
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02-09-2020, 03:44 PM
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#72
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD
Posts: 8,304
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UGH! Stink bugs was bad but this is really bad.
__________________
...with no reasonable expectation for ER, I'm just here auditing the AP class.Retired 8/1/15.
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02-09-2020, 07:58 PM
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#73
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Bellingham
Posts: 34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winemaker
Are they closed because of the virus or the New Year celebration?
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They're closed of course because of the virus. Companies are already affected. My small business owner friend has an event on 2/22. He ordered his shirts from China, now because of the work stoppage he will not be able to get his shirts on time. The company that makes the shirts are not letting their workers come back until 2/17.
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02-10-2020, 08:07 AM
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#74
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Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 10,622
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brat
Both Mohamed El-Erian and Jim Cramer are both saying beware of the equity market, the Coronavirus is a serious negative for the economy. Don't buy on the dip.
Then an article was written by Michael Bloom today (2/8) finds a recommendation to buy Royal Carribean:
Royal Caribbean - Macquarie, Outperform rating
“We think impact from nCoV is overblown and raise TP. ... Underlying business should weather virus thanks to North America. ... We don’t think the coronavirus impact will carry particular weight on the underlying business fundamentals esp. given N.A. strength. China, while a positive catalyst in the RCL story overall, was only expected to be 6% of 2020 capacity and 4% Q1, and we don’t expect serious long-term erosion in consumer confidence from this.”
Good luck with that.
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Good luck indeed. This presumes that the virus will not make it's way onto any ship elsewhere in the world. But people get on airplanes, fly halfway around the world and immediately get on a cruise ship.
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02-10-2020, 07:37 PM
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#75
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Foxconn, the contract manufacturer for Apple, has reopened its factory in Zhengzhou on Monday 2/10. However, it is only staffed with 10% of the workers who did not go home for the Chinese New Year.
Foxconn is looking to reopen another plant in Shenzhen. These 2 plants are most of the iPhone assembly lines.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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02-10-2020, 07:52 PM
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#76
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Louisville
Posts: 600
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And the US market continues to MELT UP....
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02-10-2020, 07:55 PM
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#77
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Masquernom
And the US market continues to MELT UP....
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Can you offer a coherent reason why this should be? Other than monetary stimulus, I cannot.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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02-10-2020, 10:50 PM
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#78
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 16,972
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Can you offer a coherent reason why this should be? Other than monetary stimulus, I cannot.
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Because there is basically no effect of the virus in the USA, and no effect noticed about shipping from China as it takes quite a while to reach USA, so stuff is still arriving.
When the store shelves start getting empty, it may still mean people switch to an alternative without much thought and continue to spend money.
__________________
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
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02-11-2020, 04:04 AM
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#79
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 1,688
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The new norm for air travel in this part of the world :
https://today.rtl.lu/news/world/a/1467849.html
__________________
Budgeting is a skill practised by people who are bad at politics.
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02-11-2020, 04:45 AM
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#80
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 11,701
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Ordered some Zenni glasses yesterday.
They warn that their normal turn around time is extended due to the situation in China. (Going to take at least 3 weeks.)
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Retired Class of 2018
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