Big_Hitter
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
OP, you should also be focusing on total comp (i.e. pay plus bonus), not just a raise in base pay
In some (technical) industries there is another way to get those top raises without giving up your life but it's risky. That is, you have become "the smartest guy in the room". The one guy that always knows the answer, the guy that is never wrong. The problem is that this can be precarious. The company is sold, there is a major reorg, or you stop being right. Can be fun while it lasts, according to a couple of people I observed with this status. Come in late, leave early, get big raises, get the interesting questions. But the end can come quickly.
This is not true. It's no secret that the last 40 years have seen a prodigious erosion of employer loyalty to workers (the employer/employee pact). Only during this time have organizations perfected the strategic use of compensation, benefits, restructurings, reorganizations, position eliminations, etc., with employees always on the losing end. This change accelerated greatly during/after the Reagan years (had little to do with politics, however). Between 1930-1980, the U.S. led the world in many aspects of worker wages, benefits, security and standard of living. That is no more, and will be no more.Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
The only thing I really disagree with is that this is anything new. It's always been this way.
-ERD50
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Just because the company is making money does not change what your job is worth. If your job is worth $50 to $60K, then you should be paid in that range... if your job is worth $150 to $200K, then that range... what the company makes or loses should not be a discussion of your salary....
When tech jobs were in demand, people with the right skills were job-hopping or 30% raises. Depending on the supply/demand, the right worker has the leverage, and other times, the employers have the leverage. It isn't a one way street.
-ERD50
That's a strange distribution you've got there at that megacorp, I've never seen anything like that if the group size was larger than one.We are all pretty much equally capable and contribute equally
Not as long as politicians set salaries and pensions in government work, and employees join unions and vote together. Quite possibly no one in America will get a pension except government workers, and all of them will.And don't count on that pension. I'd be willing to bet that it will be frozen or done away with long before your reach retirement age. I expect my DGD will need to go to a museum (or Congress) to see a pension.
The new realities in the world of work are thus:
1) The labor market is like any other market: supply and demand. Regardless of meaningless organizational phrases such as employer of choice, employees are nothing more than an expense to employers.
2) In the labor market, the number of job seekers who are "average" exceeds the demand of jobs needing to be filled.
3) Employers are engaged in a so-called "war for talent", and if you are that talent, have no life and are willing to sell your soul, you'll be paid accordingly and handsomely. Everyone else will get scraps. (Additionally, in organizations today, obscene amounts of money is flowing to the top 10-20%, to the management and so-called leadership ranks; the bottom 80% aren't doing so well, eating cake, basically).
4) Standard raises before the 08 meltdown were 3% - since then employers learned they could get away with 2.5% without adversely affecting turnover.
5) A high % of employers use pay-for-performance and a bell curve when awarding raises. Following a bell curve, approx. 80% of employees will get 2.5%, about 10% will get less than that, and another 10% will get more than that. This means unless you are killing yourself at your job, you most likely shouldn't expect more than 2.5%.
6) If you can "easily" (as you say) get another job with a 15% increase in pay, I would personally do so immediately because (a) it's doubtful your current organization will match that (unless you've grossly underestimated your worth to them, which is entirely possible), (b) there's little, if any, guarantee the pension will be there in 10 years (given the historic track record of pensions reneged on/converted to DCB's); (c) your current organization could merge with another, your department could downsize, or you could be lucky enough to get a boss-from-hell supervisor who "eliminates" your job, either through restructure or through the "progressive discipline process".
Loyalty to an employer can be a suckers game, if you're not careful. My recommendation is to be loyal to (good) bosses, to (good) people, not organizations. You could be blown out the door tomorrow if a "business decision" was deemed to warrant it. If you can reasonably job hop your way to salary increases while gaining added experience, contacts, and expanded opportunities, it's certainly a worthwhile strategy.
All you have to sell is your time. Just as organizations seek to maximize their return on equity, your job is to maximize your return on energy expended. This means, for as long as you must work, your job is to get as much return in benefits, salary, and other perks in return for the life energy you expend by working at that job versus other things you could be doing.
Hope this give you some perspective. Good luck, whatever you decide.
I'll suggest that you are applying some selective history.
History is history. What is selective about the changes that have occurred in the past 40 years? See the links below.
When tech jobs were in demand, people with the right skills were job-hopping or 30% raises. Depending on the supply/demand, the right worker has the leverage, and other times, the employers have the leverage. It isn't a one way street.
This is exactly what I advocate that all workers do, position themselves to obtain that leverage. Either that, or resign themselves to to nothing but average wages and opportunities of all kinds. For more on this, read "Average is over" by Tyler Cowen..
Some companies (past and present), feel it is in their best interests to have a stable workforce. They generally provide better overall compensation (not always money alone, it can take many forms) than other employers. What looks like 'loyalty' is just paying for the product they want (a stable workforce). If they could get it for less, I'm sure they would.
Companies present and future are only concerned with the bottom line. Employees make up almost 60% of any organization's costs. As opposed to desiring a stable workforce, organizations are in fact automating jobs and eliminating people altogether--a trend that will impact as much as 50% of today's jobs. See link below for job loss projections in the next four years alone.
There is also the very real impact of the 'flat world' - many 1st world workers are now competing with 2nd/3rd world workers. That depresses wages here, but that has taken a form in other times as well. Did we keep our agricultural work force in place after tractors and other efficiency advances came along? No, I don't think things have fundamentally changed.
Of course technology has been displacing jobs since at least the introduction of canals in Britain in the 18th century. Railroads displaced jobs, the industrial revolution displaced jobs. This is exactly the period we are in, and it is accelerating. See link below for "The Second Machine Age". I highly recommend this book for anyone with at least two decades of accumulation left.
-ERD50
High earners are taking ever more advantage of machine intelligence in data analysis and achieving ever-better results. Meanwhile, low earners who haven’t committed to learning, to making the most of new technologies, have poor prospects. Nearly every business sector relies less and less on manual labor, and this fact is forever changing the world of work and wages. A steady, secure life somewhere in the middle—average—is over.
The details show that real wages for most U.S. workers have been relatively stagnant since the 1970s, while those for the top 1 percent have increased 156 percent, and those for the top 0.1 percent have increased 362 percent, according to a report by the Economic Policy Institute.
Those trends resulted in the poorest 20 percent of Americans receiving just 3.6 percent of the national income in 2014, down from 5.7 percent in 1974. The upper 20 percent, meanwhile, received nearly half of U.S. income in 2014, up from about 40 percent in 1974, according to Census Bureau statistics.
In The Second Machine Age, MIT’s Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee―two thinkers at the forefront of their field―reveal the forces driving the reinvention of our lives and our economy. As the full impact of digital technologies is felt, we will realize immense bounty in the form of dazzling personal technology, advanced infrastructure, and near-boundless access to the cultural items that enrich our lives.
Amid this bounty will also be wrenching change. Professions of all kinds―from lawyers to truck drivers―will be forever upended. Companies will be forced to transform or die. Recent economic indicators reflect this shift: fewer people are working, and wages are falling even as productivity and profits soar.
What are the jobs of the future? How many will there be? And who will have them? We might imagine—and hope—that today’s industrial revolution will unfold like the last: even as some jobs are eliminated, more will be created to deal with the new innovations of a new era. In Rise of the Robots, Silicon Valley entrepreneur Martin Ford argues that this is absolutely not the case. As technology continues to accelerate and machines begin taking care of themselves, fewer people will be necessary. Artificial intelligence is already well on its way to making “good jobs” obsolete: many paralegals, journalists, office workers, and even computer programmers are poised to be replaced by robots and smart software. As progress continues, blue and white collar jobs alike will evaporate, squeezing working- and middle-class families ever further. At the same time, households are under assault from exploding costs, especially from the two major industries—education and health care—that, so far, have not been transformed by information technology. The result could well be massive unemployment and inequality as well as the implosion of the consumer economy itself.
I don't understand the repeating theme of salary "flattening" out at midcareer. Salary
Is attached to responsibilities and adding value, if you keep taking your bosses job, you will get mire money. If not, create a new business.
There isn't some magical pay ceiling (racism, sexism, etc aside)
See this: ...
Too hard to re-quote and reply line by line, but...
It seems we are saying the same thing. It's always been this way (canals, railroads, tractors). That's why I said this isn't "new". Of course, the future only rhymes with the past - yesterdays trains/tractors are today's robots and technology that allows outsourcing of some jobs (they haven't been able to outsource plumbers... yet).
I'll also add that your references focus on the negative effects on American workers, but ignore the good that outsourcing does for the 3rd world workers. It's subjective, but I see it as more important that some 3rd world worker can get a factory job and provide the basics (food, water, shelter) for his/her family, versus a slightly higher wage for some lower/middle class American so they can order the premium cable channels or a new iPhone.
-ERD50
No we are not saying the same thing. ... Today’s technologies have a direct impact on labor—as in the wholesale elimination of jobs, even the elimination of a labor requirement.
Replacement jobs, even in new fields such as biotechnology, nanotechnology, and social media, require far fewer employees.
If you’re still in the accumulation phase, it’s best to approach every aspect of your working life from a strictly strategic point of view (e.g., what's your plan when you are, say 53 years old, and called into the office of your boss on a Friday afternoon and told your position is being "eliminated", or the company is merging with another, or your department is moving to the other side of the country? It would be wise to plan on something like this happening, no matter how secure you think your job is). Your decumulation phase depends on it.
Those days really were unpleasant.
This is a pretty unrealistic look at life in a Mega, IMO. Yes, you can occasionally get a promotion to your boss's job, but unless you are able to make it up into the upper levels of management you will top out pretty quickly. Also, I believe many of the people here are like me in that they wanted to not move into management, and would rather stay in the technical side of their field. This also tends to preclude significant promotion. So yes, you do tend to top out a pay band and end up with flat lining pay increases. Personally, any loss of increased pay was made well worth it by not having to deal with the massive headaches of personnel management. And while I wasn't thrilled to have to have a job at all (hence FIRE), I did at least enjoy the technical aspects of my career. If I'd have chased the money into management I'd probably have ended up shooting myself or others. But that's just me.
Workers were always superior in January but average by December.
I'm a government contractor, and I've been stuck in the 3% rut since 2012. Here's a rundown of the raises I've gotten, for as far back as I can trust my memory, at least...
9/09: 5.0%
9/10: 4.2%
9/11: 4.6%
9/12: 3.0%
9/13: 3.0%
3/14: 1.8% (6 month)
3/15: 2.9%
[...]
One thing I remember from Megacorp was this:
When the business targets were presented, we always got a pep talk: "these may look like unrealistic goals and timelines, and 8% sales growth in a market that is growing 2% (and we already have >75% market share) may sound impossible, but we are not an average company and our workers do better than average"
Fast forward to raise time, or changes to our benefits package, and the message always started with "Megacorp's total compensation package is average compared to other companies in our business"
Workers were always superior in January but average by December.