 |
|
11-13-2018, 05:49 PM
|
#81
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Upstate
Posts: 2,951
|
 Quote:
Originally Posted by NYEXPAT
I hear you and am happy to share. Whenever, I see your posts about selling calls, I am reminded of my Father. He once told me never to sell call options as you will lose your best performing companies. There were many things he instilled in me about trading and I think that is one of the few, I strictly adhered too, along with never being a stock broker or sell side analyst! I am not criticizing you in any way, I just have a psychological block! One of my Father's contemporaries was a flamboyant,well known and very successful short specialist. I was influenced by him early on and found it more appealing than my Fathers staid value style. This is what lead me into Futures trading and my ER.
|
"Cut out the weeds, keep the flowers." "Don't cut the flowers and keep the weeds."
|
|
|
 |
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
|
11-13-2018, 06:10 PM
|
#82
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
|
Cut everything!
Cut the weeds before they go to seed.
Cut the flowers at their peak, put them inside the home in a vase.
Or cut the flowers later, in order to save the seeds.
Cut, cut, cut....
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
|
|
|
|
|
11-13-2018, 08:44 PM
|
#83
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Miraflores,Peru
Posts: 1,992
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
By resolution, do you mean a wipeout at the bottom with high volumes, signifying many investors capitulate, cry "Uncle!", and bail to cash?
|
No, that would be the end to a "bear market". On average a "proper correction" would last about 4 mos and decline 13.8% peak to trough.
At this point "resolution" to me means a successful retest of the prior low or failing that a move below the 12 month moving average and a successful retest of the February lows.
I am not looking for resolution yet and once AAPL catches a "bid" (188-189), I am hoping to see at least one more rally.
Today was interesting to watch from the sidelines. You saw traders try to cross too the upside the technically important 200 day MA. Failing that they took it down to the 300 day MA and attempted to penetrate 3-4 times (once slightly successful) before the markets ran out of time.
My signals remain "neutral" and I have not entered any trade in the SPY.
|
|
|
|
|
11-14-2018, 11:41 AM
|
#84
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 3,502
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Free bird
I command & demand this correction to be over. My demands are non negotiable. Big up day tomorrow.
|
You have both your Correction Anxiety and Correction is Over threads running concurrently.
Are you auditioning for CNBC?
|
|
|
|
|
11-14-2018, 12:08 PM
|
#85
|
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 774
|
No. I think they get up too early. I might consider SNL.
|
|
|
|
|
11-14-2018, 12:40 PM
|
#86
|
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 774
|
They could rip this thing north at any moment.
|
|
|
|
|
11-14-2018, 04:35 PM
|
#87
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: NC Triangle
Posts: 5,807
|
I know I’m stealing someone else’s point, but can’t locate the thread or post.
But the gist was that recent market movement seems to be doing an auto-rebalance for me.
__________________
|
|
|
|
|
11-14-2018, 04:46 PM
|
#88
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by GravitySucks
You have both your Correction Anxiety and Correction is Over threads running concurrently.
Are you auditioning for CNBC?
|
The OP is suffering the same affliction that the market does: bipolar disorder.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
|
|
|
|
|
11-16-2018, 07:20 PM
|
#89
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,153
|
Three different reports/opinion pieces in the last two days. Some gurus are seeing a sudden economic slowdown, and think the Fed is seeing it too. This is new.
If the market gets a whiff of a sudden slowdown (Fed seemed to be suddenly backpedaling some on aggressive Fed Rate raises today and interest rates have been dropping) IMO stock prices will continue to drop.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
|
|
|
|
11-16-2018, 07:59 PM
|
#90
|
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 774
|
What do you suffer from since your diagnosing for free?
|
|
|
|
|
11-16-2018, 08:19 PM
|
#91
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 3,931
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
If the market gets a whiff of a sudden slowdown (Fed seemed to be suddenly backpedaling some on aggressive Fed Rate raises today and interest rates have been dropping) IMO stock prices will continue to drop.
|
The Fed chiefs from around the country always have differing opinions. While I saw stories of some backpedaling, I saw another today reiterating the potential for four hikes in 2019.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fe...019-2018-11-16
|
|
|
|
|
11-16-2018, 08:24 PM
|
#92
|
|
gone traveling
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 575
|
In some ways makes me glad I have 5 more years (+/-), and also makes me think of adding more to cash holding prior to getting there to avoid withdrawals when I don't want to (downturns). Was planning on 12-18 months cash, may move to 24 months or more.
|
|
|
|
|
11-16-2018, 08:30 PM
|
#93
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Upstate
Posts: 2,951
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
Three different reports/opinion pieces in the last two days. Some gurus are seeing a sudden economic slowdown, and think the Fed is seeing it too. This is new.
If the market gets a whiff of a sudden slowdown (Fed seemed to be suddenly backpedaling some on aggressive Fed Rate raises today and interest rates have been dropping) IMO stock prices will continue to drop.
|
The market has already 'smelled' it, which is why things have been selling off.
The market should now rally, as I just moved my equity allocation down by about 3%. 
|
|
|
|
|
11-16-2018, 08:36 PM
|
#94
|
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,501
|
Thank you for taking one for the team! 
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
|
|
|
|
|
11-17-2018, 08:22 PM
|
#95
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 1,610
|
Giggling at some of the comments ....
I think 2026 will be a down year, and then 2027, too ....
|
|
|
|
|
12-06-2018, 06:30 AM
|
#96
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 3,931
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Free bird
They could rip this thing north at any moment.
|
Or ...
|
|
|
|
|
12-06-2018, 06:58 AM
|
#97
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 2,232
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiger8693
In some ways makes me glad I have 5 more years (+/-), and also makes me think of adding more to cash holding prior to getting there to avoid withdrawals when I don't want to (downturns). Was planning on 12-18 months cash, may move to 24 months or more.
|
if this is a big correction, 5 years before retirement is a good time for it.
Everything makes somebody happy.
|
|
|
|
|
12-06-2018, 07:32 AM
|
#98
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,662
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by HadEnuff
if this is a big correction, 5 years before retirement is a good time for it.
Everything makes somebody happy.
|
I can't really explain it, but even as I watch my 401k erode, part of me actually wants to see the numbers go down.
I justify it like this: (1) I've been expecting it, and it'll be a relief when it's finally over. (2) I have a fixed pension; too much expansion will lead to higher inflation, which is a net loss for me. (3) I never planned for a huge run-up in my 401k, and have stuck to my long-term goals for years now. If this year's gains are wiped out, I'm still better off than I was the day I retired, over two years ago.
|
|
|
|
|
12-06-2018, 08:06 AM
|
#99
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Champaign
Posts: 4,729
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptTom
I can't really explain it, but even as I watch my 401k erode, part of me actually wants to see the numbers go down.
I justify it like this: (1) I've been expecting it, and it'll be a relief when it's finally over. (2) I have a fixed pension; too much expansion will lead to higher inflation, which is a net loss for me. (3) I never planned for a huge run-up in my 401k, and have stuck to my long-term goals for years now. If this year's gains are wiped out, I'm still better off than I was the day I retired, over two years ago.
|
Yes, we will not touch VG portfolio for 4 years. I just calculated on FIRE.calc with portfolio losing $300K. So, for 30 yrs, starting at 65 (we're 61) with 2% inflation and 2.5% earning, we are still ok.
__________________
"Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail."
Ralph Waldo Emerson
|
|
|
|
|
12-06-2018, 08:12 AM
|
#100
|
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: https://www.google.com
Posts: 750
|
How's that market timing thang going for y'all?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|
Linear Mode
