Could you do it with these numbers?

[Carpediem]

No... think of it as two funds.

As it turns out, this is our exact setup because my accounts are separate from DW's. We can start drawing down my accounts (after 59.5) while DW's continues to grow. By the time we're ready to start tapping DW's account, the SS calvary arrives.

 

[ncbill]

Why not work part-time?

IIRC, Kitces in that recent podcast discussed on another thread pointed out that earning $10-$20K/year would significantly impact your withdrawal rate for the better those first 7 years.

 

[Carpediem]

Why not work part-time?

IIRC, Kitces in that recent podcast discussed on another thread pointed out that earning $10-$20K/year would significantly impact your withdrawal rate for the better those first 7 years.

Yeah, I may do that. I might go down to 32 hours in April or May 2018 for at least one year. After that, I might either keep that schedule for around year, or go down to 3 days a week, or hang it up completely.

 

[RobLJ]

Yeah, I may do that. I might go down to 32 hours in April or May 2018 for at least one year. After that, I might either keep that schedule for around year, or go down to 3 days a week, or hang it up completely.

To follow up, I'm in a similar situation, since DW is 5 years younger and can't pull from her accounts for a while. I'm working half-time online for half of salary for the last 2 years which means I haven't pulled anything from my accounts yet, and I was renewed for another two years, which means DW can retire next year or earlier. (I like working online for 15-20 hours per week at half pay, which keeps me out of some trouble.) For about 3-4 years, I'll pull 5-5.5%, but after taking SS this will pull back to below 4% for 5 years, then when DW takes SS, the SWR goes further down. Unless the market crashes, we'll probably delay her taking SS since she was the higher earner--if I croak, she'll be in good shape. Not worried about myself in the reverse.
I would be a bit concerned about sequence of return risks in pulling 7% at the beginning, but if you have slack in the budget it could work.

 

[Independent]

Another work day and another day of dreaming of retirement. In my most favored scenario of hanging it up at some point next year, I would be looking at the WRs shown below for the first 15 years with a 30 year average WR of 2.4%. The calculators show a 95+% chance of success. But those first 7 years sure make me nervous, especially in terms of SoRR. Obviously I could improve the numbers if I worked a few more years but what fun is that!

If you were faced with similar high WRs early in retirement, could you convince yourself to pull the trigger? Or to those who are already retired, did you pull the trigger with > 4% WR for a few years knowing it would be at a more acceptable level in a few years when the Calvary arrived?

I never felt that a withdrawal rate was a particularly meaningful statistic. Odds of surviving based on dollar amounts of real spending seems more helpful.

But, I did retire with the expectation of digging into principal during the years before SS. I'd do it again.

I didn't want to spend those dwindling years of good health at w*rk. You might say that I decided to "seize the day".

 

[Independent]

Calculate a portfolio size needed for the 8th year onwards to be 4% withdrawals with a 50/50 stock/bond allocation.

Now do you have enough left to fund the difference for the 1st 7 years if you put it into a bond/tips ladder?

Does that make you feel better?

+1
This is one of the calculations I did. It made me feel better.

 

[Independent]

SoRR = Sequence of Returns Risk

Yes, the withdrawals are based on a spending level that matches our budget and past spending. The budget does include slack that could be cut, such as $12k travel plus some other things. Healthcare costs are also accounted for and current health is good. (Ages 59, 58)

And, your long term care plan is .... ?

 

[Carpediem]

And, your long term care plan is .... ?

Based on current projections, there should be enough money remaining to self fund LTC. Our savings will receive a bump when we decide to sell our two rental properties, probably sometime in our 70s.

 

[FREE866]

couple things..if your portfolio has to last a long time 50/50 is way too conservative

7% WR does seem high to me, but run the numbers through a monte carlo or firecalc....if the monte carlo puts you at 80% and firecalc is over 90% go for it...