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Old 02-25-2020, 10:07 AM   #121
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Wow, so many market timers at ER.org!
I have never prayed at the church of the True Indexer.
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Old 02-25-2020, 10:08 AM   #122
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I’ve never claimed that I’m not a market timer, but this is the first time I’ve ever made this big of a move. And I went through 2008/2009 with a 90%+ equity allocation, buying on the way down (that wasn’t fun).

This time I think it is different. People can’t get to work. Quarantines, highly contagious, higher mortality rate. Companies will likely have terrible earnings. I don’t think that’s been fully priced into the market yet.

And I realized the other day that I’m ok even if I’m wrong. I just don’t see much upside right now.

Also, don’t get me wrong where I think this virus won’t be managed. I only think it’ll be somewhat ugly before we find our new norm. I’m not stockpiling TP.

Btw, also bought two (very) small puts for spy/vwo this morning. I expected a bigger bounce today and am lucky I didn’t procrastinate.
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Old 02-25-2020, 10:12 AM   #123
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If you don't "time" something as bad as the coronavirus, then what will you time?

We at ER.org have time on hand to keep up-to-date on this scary stuff.

PS. Hah! Unintended pun with the word "time".

Agree!

But I still work full time. I still try to keep up, but it’s harder, especially if I need to actively trade. Buy and hold is much easier.
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Old 02-25-2020, 10:13 AM   #124
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If you survive the water from the river Ganges (I have not been there), you do not fear the coronavirus. Could it be why India has not had an outbreak? Their immunity is strong.
Or maybe India isn't a favourite destination for Chinese tourists.
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Old 02-25-2020, 10:17 AM   #125
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Or India isn't a favourite destination for Chinese tourists.
That is true. However, there's still commerce between the two countries, for example the pharmaceutical supply line between them, hence business travel. Or the infection can be via an intermediary, such as a traveler from a 3rd country.

The risk is of course smaller than with a direct "invasion" by Chinese tourists. But Vietnam seems to do well so far even with that huge risk, and that's why I find it head-scratching.

PS. And all it takes is one infected person, as they found out in Italy. Perhaps India already has the virus, but nobody knows it yet, or cares.
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Old 02-25-2020, 10:21 AM   #126
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Glad I rebalanced our portfolios at the end of last year.



Some interesting Coronavirus statistics and history.

And near the bottom of the link : Cases in the US



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...a-coronavirus/



Best I can tell the web site info appears to be updated regularly, and

is from reliable sources.
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Old 02-25-2020, 12:19 PM   #127
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If you don't "time" something as bad as the coronavirus, then what will you time? ....
Even though I do think this virus has the potential to hurt the market, that doesn't mean I can successfully time it, so I (probably - never say never) will not try. If my AA gets way out of whack, as it did near the bottom of the 2008 decline, I'll re-balance.

If the general sentiment is that it's going to get worse, then isn't the market already reflecting that? Maybe not, but how would I know? It just seems like a paradox to me - I must be expecting things to be worse than expected? Whose expectations are right?

I don't play games where I don't understand the rules.

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Old 02-25-2020, 12:26 PM   #128
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Also, the evening news was on in the background last night. The announcer says the drop has "given back all the year's gains".

That caught my attention, then I realized he was referring to "this year's gains" (2020 YTD), no a year's gains" (Trailing Twelve Months).

That's less than two months! How many times in history have there been no gains at all, nothing to "give back" at all, over an 8 week period? Probably pretty common.

Weird measure, but it sounds so bad.


ETA: Had to look. S&P up over 16% in the past year. As of yesterday, 2020 YTD total return was positive marginally for S&P, including divs.

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Old 02-25-2020, 12:32 PM   #129
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Yes, market timing is not easy. Even when the consensus is that a decline will happen, the execution has to be timed right to beat buy/hold.

About the market drop of YTD, we have to ask if the world economy prospect looks better or worse compared to Dec of 2019, back when few of us knew about a place in China called Wuhan. I do think that it does look worse now than back then.

But then, the market has been known to be detached from reality, and can be higher or lower than a reasonable estimate. And that's why we have market bubble and burst.

Again, it's not easy. Hence, I never go all the way, one way or the other. A bit more, a bit less, that's all I am willing to do.
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Old 02-25-2020, 12:34 PM   #130
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Dumb luck or genius, I rebalanced two weeks ago ! I'm going with dumb luck.
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Old 02-25-2020, 12:34 PM   #131
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If the general sentiment is that it's going to get worse, then isn't the market already reflecting that? Maybe not, but how would I know? It just seems like a paradox to me - I must be expecting things to be worse than expected? Whose expectations are right?
Forgot to respond to the above.

Until the decline of the last few days, the market did not act scared at all. We talked about that here. What made it so invincible?

Now, it finally acts scared. Good!

PS. In order to buy, I need to see CEOs crying uncle, and cutting their earnings projections. Then, I will know that the market valuation has factored in the bad things.
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Old 02-25-2020, 12:36 PM   #132
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Hence, I never go all the way, one way or the other. A bit more, a bit less, that's all I am willing to do.
You sound just like a girl I dated in high school...
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Old 02-25-2020, 12:40 PM   #133
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How did you do with her? Did you get what you wanted?


PS. Come to think of it, I do sound like that girl. The market will not be able to seduce me, to lure me in. I am not easy to get.
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Old 02-25-2020, 12:56 PM   #134
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How did you do with her? Did you get what you wanted?


PS. Come to think of it, I do sound like that girl. The market will not be able to seduce me, to lure me in. I am not easy to get.
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Old 02-25-2020, 02:13 PM   #135
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ERD50, I get what you’re saying and would usually agree with you.

I believe markets are irrational in the short-term. The problem is, how do you use that for
your benefit?

Usually a fool’s errand, but I think this case is a lot easier to spot. And I don’t need to be perfect in my timing, just good enough.

Once the quarantines end and people can get back to work, I’ll go back to buying equities.
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Old 02-25-2020, 02:13 PM   #136
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PS. In order to buy, I need to see CEOs crying uncle, and cutting their earnings projections. Then, I will know that the market valuation has factored in the bad things.

Yep.
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Old 02-25-2020, 02:53 PM   #137
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Nothing? I know for a fact that my portfolio does better overall if I just leave it alone and let the market work through these dips and valleys. Meanwhile I'll just go play video games instead, and wait this out.

It does look like we may be at the start of a big crash right now, with the market dropping even further today. But timing the market is like going to the casino and putting all one's money on red or on black at the roulette wheel. Sometimes it works, but all too often it doesn't. I'd rather just sit tight.

Sounds right to me, applicable to casinos, the market or the race track. These sorts of discussions remind me of a tune called “Fugue For Tinhorns” from the musical Guys and Dolls:

https://youtu.be/BAIlVCStp3c
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:06 PM   #138
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Sounds right to me, applicable to casinos, the market or the race track. These sorts of discussions remind me of a tune called “Fugue For Tinhorns” from the musical Guys and Dolls:

https://youtu.be/BAIlVCStp3c
Love it! That put a smile on my face.
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:11 PM   #139
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Love it! That put a smile on my face.

Glad to hear it! That show is based on stories by Damon Runyon, who never was at a loss creating “characters”.
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:24 PM   #140
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Water buffalo require washing?
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