Current Thoughts on the Markets?

[RAE]

I'll start by saying that I know market timing is not popular here (and I'm not looking to start another debate about that topic). I am interested, though, in the thoughts of Running_Man and others who follow the market more closely than I do, on the current situation, and whether anyone is making (or has recently made) changes to their asset allocation. The S&P 500 was down about 2.2% last week, which I know is not a big deal, but the talking heads are warning of further declines to come, based on slowing global growth (China, especially), relatively tepid earnings overall, and declining commodity prices. Also, I think there is a Fed meeting this week, which could prove interesting. I am relatively light in my exposure to the market at this time, so I'm not contemplating any major changes, but I'm interested in what everyone else is thinking right now. Thanks.

 

[GTFan]

I'm thinking I'm going to hold my current 60/35/5 AA for 30+ years (I hope) and not try to market-time anything given that there's not a whole lot of viable choices in where to put money.

 

[razztazz]

This might be my final post before I get mowed down in a fusillade of orthodoxy and asset allocation but I got out in late 2000 and back in, in April or 2003. Also, out in late 2007 and back in, in Summer 2008. Dare I say A) look at the charts and B) "read da papers." The 200 Day Rambling Average is a pretty good indicator of what's going on and, yes, what is likely to happen in the useful future.

I am not claiming Nyaa nyaa! Market Timing works, buy & hold is bad. Just saying buy and hold can kill you depending on your situation, just as some form of prudent, reasoned timing can slay buy and hold at points along the spectrum.

My benchmarks are A) Do I have enough money and B) Am I sleeping well. Not "Which would have left me with more money at this moment... timing or B&H?

But going directly to the Q "where the markets are going" you can know exactly. Keep involved and keep interested and follow it as it it relevant to you. OR just blow it all off. Apparently it all works.

 

[dallas27]

The dumbest thing a person can do is think they are smart. And dumb luck usually reinforces it. Consider yourself ahead and stop gambling.


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum

 

[razztazz]

The dumbest thing a person can do is think they are smart. And dumb luck usually reinforces it. Consider yourself ahead and stop gambling.


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum

Who me? Perhaps you didn't not get it. Nothing I did had any more luck involved with it that buy and hold.

The dumbest thing a person can do is think they are smart.

Ha ha. Thanks for the tip, professor. Rim shot!

 

[hesperus]

I am not claiming Nyaa nyaa! Market Timing works, buy & hold is bad. Just saying buy and hold can kill you depending on your situation, just as some form of prudent, reasoned timing can slay buy and hold at points along the spectrum.

Bottom line is that you may get it right once in a while, but never consistently.

 

[razztazz]

Bottom line is that you may get it right once in a while, but never consistently.

Thing #1) So? Everybody knows, even you, nobody gets everything or even anything right all the time. What's your point? Rhetorical question. As you were. Also, in this particular arena, you don't have to be right all the time. And you can't help but be right consistently.

Thing #2) I will not respond further to anything along the lines of of these "Hey, he's not spouting the Company sht" replies because it dragging The Man's thread off topic. Sorry, RAE

 

[Spanky]

We remain cautious with 40% equity exposure.

 

[Spanky]

razztazz, are you out of the market?

 

[razztazz]

razztazz, are you out of the market?

The allocation to stocks is --in-- at the moment

 

[LOL!]

Folks around here really love market timing as evidenced by the number of page views of LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter thread at over 58,000 and still going up.

In general, the stock market tends downwards when there is no news, goes down faster on bad news, and only goes up on good news. The good news comes sporadically (AMZN had some good news this past week), but is good enough to have the overall stock market direction to have slight upward bias.

Thus, with no special news events on the horizon, the stock market will drift downwards as already noted in my last post in the Newsletter. The FOMC meeting next week is really a non-event as there is no news conference scheduled as there will be after the September meeting.

Also the stock market hates uncertainty. When uncertainty is resolved (Greeks get a bailout), then the market tends to go up. But then it is back to business as usual.

So right now there is not much to do with one's portfolio except maintain one's asset allocation and wait.

 

[Spanky]

The allocation to stocks is --in-- at the moment

The S&P 500 is trending down to its 200-day moving average. It's almost time to exit, right?

 

[marko]

Personally, I'm very frustrated by the current market stall, but history has proven that time will heal. The first six months were going so well....I had been on track for a great year.

It just seems that the market always is looking for a reason to freak out...first Greece, then Fed minutes, then Greece, then the crisis of the week, then Greece.

OTOH
I tend to buy/re-allocate on such dips. It allows me to 'go back in time' and acquire more of what history has shown to be an opportunity i.e. buy good stuff at last year's price etc.

My personal (and unscientific) approach is to view the market as a tide that can be held back for a period of time, but that eventually has to return to it's equilibrium place in the world; the longer the down, the larger/faster the snap-back to where it was headed all along.

Stand far enough back from the Dow's chart over it's history and the dips fade away in favor of an upward trend.

In another thread I mentioned my [-]idiot[/-] clueless brother who put his money into a Fido fund 20 years ago and forgot about it...no reallocation, no market timing, no playing around...just let it sit there. He's outperformed nearly all my personal investing efforts.

As someone said: dumb luck often plays a greater role.

 

[Spanky]

In general, the stock market tends downwards when there is no news, goes down faster on bad news, and only goes up on good news. The good news comes sporadically, but is good enough to have the overall stock market direction to have slight upward bias.

So right now there is not much to do with one's portfolio except maintain one's asset allocation and wait.

So, the strategy is to buy on bad news and sell on good news, right?

 

[LOL!]

So, the strategy is to buy on bad news and sell on good news, right?

Almost right. The strategy is to maintain one's asset allocation except after a day of really bad news, then buy even more equities on that day (which one may want to do anyways to get back to their desired asset allocation). Then sell soon thereafter to get back to one's asset allocation.

There is no selling on good news per se because there may be no good news after bad news and there may be more bad news after bad news. The selling is done regardless of news, even if there is expectation of good news. The selling is done to maintain one's asset allocation.

 

[haha]

Now I am clear on exactly what to do to a) kill the market or b) prove myself to be irretrievably stupid for even trying.

"*****, *****, he's our man, if he can't do it nobody can!"

Ha

 

[racy]

I am interested...on the current situation, and whether anyone is making (or has recently made) changes to their asset allocation. ... I'm not contemplating any major changes, but I'm interested in what everyone else is thinking right now. Thanks.

I have been investing for 39 years and have learned:
(1) I'm not smart enough to pick individual stocks,
(2) I can't predict the activity of bears & bulls, and
(3) eventually greed always wins out over fear.

So, I have a moderately conservative, well diversified portfolio that let's me sleep at night. I know it will go up & down in value; I just let it ride. I do watch the financial porn on TV for laughs, but not for education. This old dog isn't wanting to learn new tricks.

 

[target2019]

I'll start by saying that I know market timing is not popular here (and I'm not looking to start another debate about that topic). I am interested, though, in the thoughts of Running_Man and others who follow the market more closely than I do, on the current situation, and whether anyone is making (or has recently made) changes to their asset allocation. The S&P 500 was down about 2.2% last week, which I know is not a big deal, but the talking heads are warning of further declines to come, based on slowing global growth (China, especially), relatively tepid earnings overall, and declining commodity prices. Also, I think there is a Fed meeting this week, which could prove interesting. I am relatively light in my exposure to the market at this time, so I'm not contemplating any major changes, but I'm interested in what everyone else is thinking right now. Thanks.

I'm thinking, "Didn't we go through a summer of sidesteps like this last year?" But when I look at the first six months last year it is definitely flat. Previous few years were much different, with nice gains.

I only look once a month, and our allocation is holding steady - 57% Equity.

A consulting gig has helped, in that cash is growing again.

I consistently read a few authors who publish maybe every other week on investment topics. Not listening to talking heads is highly recommended.

 

[Corporateburnout]

50/40/10 equities/bonds/cash allocation for a few years now and I have no plans to change course for the foreseeable future. I download dividends distribution monthly and I rebalance annually.

I plan to enjoy retirement and not worry about where the market is heading because we know for a fact that it will go up and down......

 

[splitwdw]

I'm still working. I add to my positions and buy individual stocks when the market dips. I bought last week.

 

[RAE]

My benchmarks are A) Do I have enough money and B) Am I sleeping well. Not "Which would have left me with more money at this moment... timing or B&H?

Thanks for the reply, razztazz. I actually use the same benchmarks. Everyone's situation is different. I have nothing against
buy/hold/forget, but for me, it would never work (if most of my retirement funds were handled that way). And yes, I am well aware of the influence of inflation over time, so please folks, no lectures about that. I'm simply looking for opinions here on where you think the markets may be headed over the next few months, or next year. If you have no opinion on that, or don't care (because you plan to buy/hold for the next 30 years), that's fine........I respect your choice. It's just not a choice I am comfortable with, at this stage of my life. As I said, I do not want to engage in a debate on the merits of market timing.

 

[W2R]

As I said, I do not want to engage in a debate on the merits of market timing.

10-4, no debating on the merits of market timing as a general strategy. However, to answer your following question, it has to be mentioned as something that one is either doing or not doing personally so I am gingerly mentioning it and trying not to tread on any toes.

I am relatively light in my exposure to the market at this time, so I'm not contemplating any major changes, but I'm interested in what everyone else is thinking right now. Thanks.

Personally I feel I have been a reasonably successful investor, but I am quite aware of the fact that I can't time the market successfully. So, I don't try. I have a tiny Roth IRA (about half of 1% of my portfolio) that I use to satisfy my market timing urges. I allow myself to gamble with that and stick to my financial plan for the rest of my investing. Using that tiny Roth IRA I have proven to myself time and again that I am the absolute worst market timer in the universe. So, I don't do it with my other accounts.

I haven't made any major changes, other than drastically lowering my cash buffer temporarily to buy my dream house in cash. However, my old house is under contract so when it sells, I'll get some of that back. Other than that, I have a written financial plan including asset allocation, and I stick to that because that is what has worked best for me, time and again, in the past.

As for what I am thinking, well, I think that the market has been awfully good for an awfully long time. Eventually it is going to crash hard again. It always does eventually and my guess is that it will be soon. Despite all the jokes about my "Wheee!" post back in October, 2007, I have no clue as to when this will happen. (Just don't tell anybody! )

 

[steelyman]

It'll be interesting to see how people fared this year in the 2015 YTD performance thread.

If I haven't met an untimely demise, I'll be there with bells on.

 

[sengsational]

Using that tiny Roth IRA I have proven to myself time and again that I am the absolute worst market timer in the universe. So, I don't do it with my other accounts.

 

[racy]

I've found this to be helpful for predicting market directions, but it may not be for everybody:
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