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Old 05-20-2020, 05:37 PM   #101
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SS Benefits won't even face any possibility of being cut for approx 14 years, so no worries until then.
Maybe. Maybe not.

I'll concede the people in charge have a history of kicking the can down the road and leaving the problem to the next people in charge.
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Old 05-20-2020, 05:52 PM   #102
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In response to every SS thread that's been discussed.

PLEASE TAKE IT WHENEVER THE HECK YOU WANT!

Thank you

The End
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Old 05-20-2020, 06:00 PM   #103
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Originally Posted by Bir48die View Post
In response to every SS thread that's been discussed.

PLEASE TAKE IT WHENEVER THE HECK YOU WANT!

Thank you

The End
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Bir48die has captured my thoughts exactly.
Old 05-20-2020, 07:06 PM   #104
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Bir48die has captured my thoughts exactly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bir48die View Post
In response to every SS thread that's been discussed.

PLEASE TAKE IT WHENEVER THE HECK YOU WANT!

Thank you

The End
Bir48die has captured my thoughts exactly.
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Old 05-20-2020, 09:08 PM   #105
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Originally Posted by Bir48die View Post
In response to every SS thread that's been discussed.

PLEASE TAKE IT WHENEVER THE HECK YOU WANT!

Thank you

The End
While I agree with this, I kinda doubt it will be The End.
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Old 05-21-2020, 06:28 AM   #106
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Maybe. Maybe not.

I'll concede the people in charge have a history of kicking the can down the road and leaving the problem to the next people in charge.
Right, as government debt grows and more may leave the workforce sooner due to Covid, SS ability to pay 100% is likely to end sooner. I pulled the plug and took just short of 69 as I was growing concerned that there might be less time to receive what was originally due based on my deferred age payment. Longevity was also a consideration.
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Old 05-21-2020, 06:52 AM   #107
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Waiting until 70, only 4 years away now - I waited this long, why change now? Besides, my parents lived to 93 & 96, and I’m more active/better diet than they were. So if breakeven is around 82 yo, odds are we’ll come out way ahead waiting until 70. YMMV
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Old 05-21-2020, 06:57 AM   #108
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Both parents still alive at 90/87, so will take it at the earliest at 66, but will decide year by year when hopefully hitting that age.
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Old 05-21-2020, 09:53 AM   #109
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Right, as government debt grows and more may leave the workforce sooner due to Covid, SS ability to pay 100% is likely to end sooner. I pulled the plug and took just short of 69 as I was growing concerned that there might be less time to receive what was originally due based on my deferred age payment. Longevity was also a consideration.
People retiring is balanced off as Covid-19 continually kills a much higher percentage of over age 65 folks, the payments that would go to those tens of thousands of dead old folks is gone, so saves SS money.

USA is just over 95,000 dead, CDC says 80% are over age 65.
Rough calculation of the SS savings so far is:

$ 22,800,000,000

based on:
95,000 * 0.8 * (avg annual SS 15,000) * (20 yrs of collecting SS)

The 'SS savings' grows by nearly $500 Million per day.

Besides the general debt is different and separate from the SS fund.
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Old 05-21-2020, 09:57 AM   #110
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People retiring is balanced off as Covid-19 continually kills a much higher percentage of over age 65 folks, the payments that would go to those tens of thousands of dead old folks is gone, so saves SS money.

USA is just over 95,000 dead, CDC says 80% are over age 65.
Rough calculation of the SS savings so far is:

$ 22,800,000,000

based on:
95,000 * 0.8 * (avg annual SS 15,000) * (20 yrs of collecting SS)

The 'SS savings' grows by nearly $500 Million per day.

Besides the general debt is different and separate from the SS fund.

Since you're SWAGging, I'd cut that at least in half. Those dying off now have typically already been drawing for quite a few years... I've only seen data from two states, but the average age was in the mid to upper 70's.
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Old 05-21-2020, 10:55 AM   #111
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Us old geezers dying off early from the virus will save the U.S. a ton of money--less SS payments, less pension payments, less Medicare. And just think of all the inheritances the young people will receive early. So what if there are no grandparents left? I think there are been several scifi movies based on killing off oldsters. Logans Run? But I am 69 and I don't plan to kick the bucket any time soon--I want to get my SS at age 70.
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Old 05-21-2020, 10:59 AM   #112
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Originally Posted by Sunset View Post
People retiring is balanced off as Covid-19 continually kills a much higher percentage of over age 65 folks, the payments that would go to those tens of thousands of dead old folks is gone, so saves SS money.

USA is just over 95,000 dead, CDC says 80% are over age 65.
Rough calculation of the SS savings so far is:

$ 22,800,000,000
10,000 people turn 65 each day and that is projected to continue and may increase over the next two decades. So what is that costing
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-ec...-years-to-come

Also, by your math, there should never be a shortfall.
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Old 05-21-2020, 11:00 AM   #113
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Since you're SWAGging, I'd cut that at least in half. Those dying off now have typically already been drawing for quite a few years... I've only seen data from two states, but the average age was in the mid to upper 70's.
Wouldn't those taking SS off their spouse's record see an increase as a survivor benefit, further lowering the "savings"?
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Old 05-21-2020, 01:17 PM   #114
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10,000 people turn 65 each day and that is projected to continue and may increase over the next two decades. So what is that costing
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-ec...-years-to-come

.....
That is already in the shortfall timeline which is 14 years from now, as calculated by SS admin, prior to Covid-19
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Old 05-21-2020, 01:32 PM   #115
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Us old geezers dying off early from the virus will save the U.S. a ton of money--less SS payments, less pension payments, less Medicare. And just think of all the inheritances the young people will receive early. So what if there are no grandparents left? I think there are been several scifi movies based on killing off oldsters. Logans Run? But I am 69 and I don't plan to kick the bucket any time soon--I want to get my SS at age 70.

Do you have any idea what a babysitter costs these days?

Just wait until those young folks have to start paying somebody to babysit the kids, instead of just dropping them off at the grandparents.
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Old 05-21-2020, 03:20 PM   #116
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That is already in the shortfall timeline which is 14 years from now, as calculated by SS admin, prior to Covid-19
prior to Covid-19 is the key. How many are paying in given unemployment and how quickly will employment return to pre-Covid levels? It's just something that some might want to consider in their when to take analysis.
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Old 05-21-2020, 04:19 PM   #117
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prior to Covid-19 is the key. How many are paying in given unemployment and how quickly will employment return to pre-Covid levels? It's just something that some might want to consider in their when to take analysis.
Yes, since unemployment might hit 20%, it would mean 20% of payments to SS are not available. (12*20%= 2.4)
So for each year of Covid-19 it would shorten 2.4 months off the 14 yrs left in normal SS payments.

Now this will be somewhat corrected by the death toll of a year of Covid-19, given close to 80K old folks so far in about 4 months, we can figure a non-payment needed to 240,000 old folks that die of Covid-19.

The net effect will be per year of Covid-19; less than 2.4 months of SS normal payment shortening off the current 14 years.
Covid-19 would have to go for 5 years to cut 1 year off the normal SS payment schedule which is 14 years long.

I'm not worried.
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Old 05-21-2020, 05:03 PM   #118
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Yes, since unemployment might hit 20%, it would mean 20% of payments to SS are not available. (12*20%= 2.4)
So for each year of Covid-19 it would shorten 2.4 months off the 14 yrs left in normal SS payments.

Now this will be somewhat corrected by the death toll of a year of Covid-19, given close to 80K old folks so far in about 4 months, we can figure a non-payment needed to 240,000 old folks that die of Covid-19.

The net effect will be per year of Covid-19; less than 2.4 months of SS normal payment shortening off the current 14 years.
Covid-19 would have to go for 5 years to cut 1 year off the normal SS payment schedule which is 14 years long.

I'm not worried.
I am not sure about your logic, but if you are not worried that is all that matters.
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Old 05-21-2020, 05:14 PM   #119
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Sure is interesting the change of thinking from just a year ago. Waiting till 70 isn't all what it is cracked up to be is the picture I'm seeing.
I'm 51, single, FIREd about 4 years ago. My plan a year ago and my plan now are the same: Take it at 70.

With respect to SS, I don't worry about COVID-19, and I also don't worry much about the benefits being reduced. I already apply a 40% haircut to my SS benefits to account for the latter item.
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Old 05-21-2020, 06:01 PM   #120
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When I originally FIRE'd at 51, my plan was to start taking social security perhaps as early as 62, perhaps as late as FRA so that I could do Roth conversions.. Then I ended up back working and fast forward I am there (62) with a considerably higher nest egg (and tax-deferred 401k/403b). Since I'm working, there is tax consequences to taking social security so I plan to defer as long as I am working and likely until 70 to allow me to do some Roth conversion activity.
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