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05-20-2020, 05:37 PM
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#101
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2017
Location: Southeastern PA
Posts: 766
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunset
SS Benefits won't even face any possibility of being cut for approx 14 years, so no worries until then.
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Maybe. Maybe not.
I'll concede the people in charge have a history of kicking the can down the road and leaving the problem to the next people in charge.
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05-20-2020, 05:52 PM
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#102
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Beaverton
Posts: 1,382
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In response to every SS thread that's been discussed.
PLEASE TAKE IT WHENEVER THE HECK YOU WANT!
Thank you
The End
__________________
Jump in, the water's warm.
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05-20-2020, 06:00 PM
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#103
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 2,929
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__________________
"Do not spoil what you have by desiring what you have not; remember that what you now have was once among the things you only hoped for." - Epicurus
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Bir48die has captured my thoughts exactly.
05-20-2020, 07:06 PM
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#104
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Bangkok
Posts: 234
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Bir48die has captured my thoughts exactly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bir48die
In response to every SS thread that's been discussed.
PLEASE TAKE IT WHENEVER THE HECK YOU WANT!
Thank you
The End
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Bir48die has captured my thoughts exactly.
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05-20-2020, 09:08 PM
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#105
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,639
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bir48die
In response to every SS thread that's been discussed.
PLEASE TAKE IT WHENEVER THE HECK YOU WANT!
Thank you
The End
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While I agree with this, I kinda doubt it will be The End.
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05-21-2020, 06:28 AM
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#106
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gone traveling
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: DFW
Posts: 7,586
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RetiredAt55.5
Maybe. Maybe not.
I'll concede the people in charge have a history of kicking the can down the road and leaving the problem to the next people in charge.
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Right, as government debt grows and more may leave the workforce sooner due to Covid, SS ability to pay 100% is likely to end sooner. I pulled the plug and took just short of 69 as I was growing concerned that there might be less time to receive what was originally due based on my deferred age payment. Longevity was also a consideration.
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05-21-2020, 06:52 AM
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#107
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,304
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Waiting until 70, only 4 years away now - I waited this long, why change now? Besides, my parents lived to 93 & 96, and I’m more active/better diet than they were. So if breakeven is around 82 yo, odds are we’ll come out way ahead waiting until 70. YMMV
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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05-21-2020, 06:57 AM
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#108
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,299
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Both parents still alive at 90/87, so will take it at the earliest at 66, but will decide year by year when hopefully hitting that age.
__________________
TGIM
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05-21-2020, 09:53 AM
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#109
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 17,099
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DFW_M5
Right, as government debt grows and more may leave the workforce sooner due to Covid, SS ability to pay 100% is likely to end sooner. I pulled the plug and took just short of 69 as I was growing concerned that there might be less time to receive what was originally due based on my deferred age payment. Longevity was also a consideration.
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People retiring is balanced off as Covid-19 continually kills a much higher percentage of over age 65 folks, the payments that would go to those tens of thousands of dead old folks is gone, so saves SS money.
USA is just over 95,000 dead, CDC says 80% are over age 65.
Rough calculation of the SS savings so far is:
$ 22,800,000,000
based on:
95,000 * 0.8 * (avg annual SS 15,000) * (20 yrs of collecting SS)
The 'SS savings' grows by nearly $500 Million per day.
Besides the general debt is different and separate from the SS fund.
__________________
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
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05-21-2020, 09:57 AM
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#110
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 1,961
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunset
People retiring is balanced off as Covid-19 continually kills a much higher percentage of over age 65 folks, the payments that would go to those tens of thousands of dead old folks is gone, so saves SS money.
USA is just over 95,000 dead, CDC says 80% are over age 65.
Rough calculation of the SS savings so far is:
$ 22,800,000,000
based on:
95,000 * 0.8 * (avg annual SS 15,000) * (20 yrs of collecting SS)
The 'SS savings' grows by nearly $500 Million per day.
Besides the general debt is different and separate from the SS fund.
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Since you're SWAGging, I'd cut that at least in half. Those dying off now have typically already been drawing for quite a few years... I've only seen data from two states, but the average age was in the mid to upper 70's.
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05-21-2020, 10:55 AM
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#111
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Chapel Hill, NC
Posts: 5,317
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Us old geezers dying off early from the virus will save the U.S. a ton of money--less SS payments, less pension payments, less Medicare. And just think of all the inheritances the young people will receive early. So what if there are no grandparents left? I think there are been several scifi movies based on killing off oldsters. Logans Run? But I am 69 and I don't plan to kick the bucket any time soon--I want to get my SS at age 70.
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05-21-2020, 10:59 AM
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#112
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gone traveling
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: DFW
Posts: 7,586
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunset
People retiring is balanced off as Covid-19 continually kills a much higher percentage of over age 65 folks, the payments that would go to those tens of thousands of dead old folks is gone, so saves SS money.
USA is just over 95,000 dead, CDC says 80% are over age 65.
Rough calculation of the SS savings so far is:
$ 22,800,000,000
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10,000 people turn 65 each day and that is projected to continue and may increase over the next two decades. So what is that costing
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-ec...-years-to-come
Also, by your math, there should never be a shortfall.
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05-21-2020, 11:00 AM
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#113
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 2,024
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spock
Since you're SWAGging, I'd cut that at least in half. Those dying off now have typically already been drawing for quite a few years... I've only seen data from two states, but the average age was in the mid to upper 70's.
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Wouldn't those taking SS off their spouse's record see an increase as a survivor benefit, further lowering the "savings"?
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05-21-2020, 01:17 PM
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#114
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 17,099
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DFW_M5
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That is already in the shortfall timeline which is 14 years from now, as calculated by SS admin, prior to Covid-19
__________________
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
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05-21-2020, 01:32 PM
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#115
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 17,265
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Quote:
Originally Posted by harllee
Us old geezers dying off early from the virus will save the U.S. a ton of money--less SS payments, less pension payments, less Medicare. And just think of all the inheritances the young people will receive early. So what if there are no grandparents left? I think there are been several scifi movies based on killing off oldsters. Logans Run? But I am 69 and I don't plan to kick the bucket any time soon--I want to get my SS at age 70.
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Do you have any idea what a babysitter costs these days?
Just wait until those young folks have to start paying somebody to babysit the kids, instead of just dropping them off at the grandparents.
__________________
Comparison is the thief of joy
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
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05-21-2020, 03:20 PM
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#116
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gone traveling
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: DFW
Posts: 7,586
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunset
That is already in the shortfall timeline which is 14 years from now, as calculated by SS admin, prior to Covid-19
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prior to Covid-19 is the key. How many are paying in given unemployment and how quickly will employment return to pre-Covid levels? It's just something that some might want to consider in their when to take analysis.
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05-21-2020, 04:19 PM
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#117
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 17,099
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DFW_M5
prior to Covid-19 is the key. How many are paying in given unemployment and how quickly will employment return to pre-Covid levels? It's just something that some might want to consider in their when to take analysis.
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Yes, since unemployment might hit 20%, it would mean 20% of payments to SS are not available. (12*20%= 2.4)
So for each year of Covid-19 it would shorten 2.4 months off the 14 yrs left in normal SS payments.
Now this will be somewhat corrected by the death toll of a year of Covid-19, given close to 80K old folks so far in about 4 months, we can figure a non-payment needed to 240,000 old folks that die of Covid-19.
The net effect will be per year of Covid-19; less than 2.4 months of SS normal payment shortening off the current 14 years.
Covid-19 would have to go for 5 years to cut 1 year off the normal SS payment schedule which is 14 years long.
I'm not worried.
__________________
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
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05-21-2020, 05:03 PM
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#118
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gone traveling
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: DFW
Posts: 7,586
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunset
Yes, since unemployment might hit 20%, it would mean 20% of payments to SS are not available. (12*20%= 2.4)
So for each year of Covid-19 it would shorten 2.4 months off the 14 yrs left in normal SS payments.
Now this will be somewhat corrected by the death toll of a year of Covid-19, given close to 80K old folks so far in about 4 months, we can figure a non-payment needed to 240,000 old folks that die of Covid-19.
The net effect will be per year of Covid-19; less than 2.4 months of SS normal payment shortening off the current 14 years.
Covid-19 would have to go for 5 years to cut 1 year off the normal SS payment schedule which is 14 years long.
I'm not worried.
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I am not sure about your logic, but if you are not worried that is all that matters.
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05-21-2020, 05:14 PM
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#119
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 7,882
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Quote:
Originally Posted by street
Sure is interesting the change of thinking from just a year ago. Waiting till 70 isn't all what it is cracked up to be is the picture I'm seeing.
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I'm 51, single, FIREd about 4 years ago. My plan a year ago and my plan now are the same: Take it at 70.
With respect to SS, I don't worry about COVID-19, and I also don't worry much about the benefits being reduced. I already apply a 40% haircut to my SS benefits to account for the latter item.
__________________
"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
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05-21-2020, 06:01 PM
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#120
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Upstate
Posts: 2,951
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When I originally FIRE'd at 51, my plan was to start taking social security perhaps as early as 62, perhaps as late as FRA so that I could do Roth conversions.. Then I ended up back working and fast forward I am there (62) with a considerably higher nest egg (and tax-deferred 401k/403b). Since I'm working, there is tax consequences to taking social security so I plan to defer as long as I am working and likely until 70 to allow me to do some Roth conversion activity.
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