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Old 05-21-2020, 09:11 PM   #121
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when should we factor in the impact of declining births into the social security future fiscal soundness equation?

<Aside from a one-year uptick in 2014, U.S. births have been falling every year since 2007, when a recession hit the country.>
https://time.com/5839319/u-s-births-decline/
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Old 05-21-2020, 10:20 PM   #122
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Originally Posted by retiredunder50 View Post
when should we factor in the impact of declining births into the social security future fiscal soundness equation?

<Aside from a one-year uptick in 2014, U.S. births have been falling every year since 2007, when a recession hit the country.>
https://time.com/5839319/u-s-births-decline/
I assume this is already accounted for in the SSA's annual report on their fiscal soundness (or relative lack thereof).
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Old 05-22-2020, 05:47 AM   #123
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Nothing gets more people responding than another SS thread, eh? So for everyone planning to taken it at 70, why not take it at 69, and then pay back the principal, and keep the earnings, and start again at the age 70 amount, if deemed worthy? Have your cake and eat it too.
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Old 05-22-2020, 06:55 AM   #124
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Nothing gets more people responding than another SS thread, eh? So for everyone planning to taken it at 70, why not take it at 69, and then pay back the principal, and keep the earnings, and start again at the age 70 amount, if deemed worthy? Have your cake and eat it too.
I am the OP, the point of this thread was to see if anyone re-adjusted their decision making in light of Covid and all the Gov't spending to mitigate an economic collapse. Some that have responded seemed to lose sight of the original intent, so this was not just another SS thread about when should I take SS.
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Old 05-22-2020, 07:11 AM   #125
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I am the OP, the point of this thread was to see if anyone re-adjusted their decision making in light of Covid and all the Gov't spending to mitigate an economic collapse. Some that have responded seemed to lose sight of the original intent, so this was not just another SS thread about when should I take SS.
Yes, Covid may change many RE plans. We're definitely rethinking our strategy regarding SS.
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Old 05-22-2020, 07:20 AM   #126
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I'm 51, single, FIREd about 4 years ago. My plan a year ago and my plan now are the same: Take it at 70.

With respect to SS, I don't worry about COVID-19, and I also don't worry much about the benefits being reduced. I already apply a 40% haircut to my SS benefits to account for the latter item.
running the "benefits reduced in year X" models on opensocialsecurity.com shows its better to take SS early if you believe benefits will be cut even by the projected 23% in 2034.
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Old 05-22-2020, 08:33 AM   #127
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Nothing gets more people responding than another SS thread, eh? So for everyone planning to taken it at 70, why not take it at 69, and then pay back the principal, and keep the earnings, and start again at the age 70 amount, if deemed worthy? Have your cake and eat it too.
Great idea, once interest rates get up high. Otherwise it seems like a lot of work/effort/dealing with SS workers for a tiny reward.
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Old 05-22-2020, 10:01 AM   #128
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This was released on several news outlets a few days ago but didn't get much traction.

If it is true it might change my decision to taking it sooner rather than later.

Coronavirus could push Social Security to insolvency before 2030

"The last official government projection had the program running out of money by 2035. But some outside economists are looking at the trends and moving up the date when the program starts paying out more than it takes in: Tens of millions of workers are suddenly unemployed and not paying into the government account that funds benefits for retired workers. At the same time, a flood of older Americans who’ve lost jobs are expected to start drawing benefits as soon as they’re eligible."

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...ty-2030-261207



It's also possible that the percentage of benefits paid after the insolvency point (when SS becomes pay as you go) will be less than the 79% or so previously projected.
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Old 05-22-2020, 10:35 AM   #129
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Thank Turbo29You wrecked my day. at 67 I've worked saved, Never in debt, I think I'll play it by ear. But you know people like me will get ____ to pay those who never save a dime but made more then I ever made. I'm sorry but I'm mad as hell about how many are in the wagon and I'm pulling it.
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Old 05-22-2020, 11:10 AM   #130
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Someone started a thread on this (early depletion of SS) this morning.


https://www.early-retirement.org/for...ml#post2433228
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Old 05-23-2020, 05:24 AM   #131
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Nothing gets more people responding than another SS thread, eh? So for everyone planning to taken it at 70, why not take it at 69, and then pay back the principal, and keep the earnings, and start again at the age 70 amount, if deemed worthy? Have your cake and eat it too.
Except maybe another COVID thread?

Seriously though, I think while past recession impacts with higher unemployment percentages and duration may have driven SS problems, even the lower unemployment rates lately might have added to them? I think the lower wage earners (which most people have said is where the employment increase came from) are net "gainers" for SS in retirement, so that actually may have shortened the SS insolvency curve. Just a thought.
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Old 05-23-2020, 01:44 PM   #132
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Thank Turbo29You wrecked my day. at 67 I've worked saved, Never in debt, I think I'll play it by ear. But you know people like me will get ____ to pay those who never save a dime but made more then I ever made. I'm sorry but I'm mad as hell about how many are in the wagon and I'm pulling it.
I feel your pain. I retired a month ago. I'll be 62 in 2 months.

I summed the SS contributions that me and my employers made over the last 46 years. If I had invested the contributions with a 3% annual return over that time I would have a $750k balance. So this would supply a $30k annual income stream at 4% withdrawal rate today.

With a 31% benefit cut, taking SS at 62 y/o provides around $17500 annual income based on my current PIA.

GovCo really knows how to screw things up.
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Old 05-23-2020, 03:37 PM   #133
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COVID-19 [mod edit] is affecting mainly the citizens of SS age which is helping SS solvency....morbid and unfortunate, but true.
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Old 05-23-2020, 03:48 PM   #134
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COVID-19 [mod edit] is affecting mainly the citizens of SS age which is helping SS solvency....morbid and unfortunate, but true.
Not really if you consider that the economic damage has resulted in high unemployment causing lower SS tax collections, coupled with more people claiming earlier. Those SS age that have died from Covid is very small in comparison to 10,000 or more filing every day for SS which was the run rate prior to Covid. Further, there might be survivor benefits that are still payable to those who have lost their lives.
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Old 05-23-2020, 05:06 PM   #135
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Not really if you consider that the economic damage has resulted in high unemployment causing lower SS tax collections, coupled with more people claiming earlier. Those SS age that have died from Covid is very small in comparison to 10,000 or more filing every day for SS which was the run rate prior to Covid. Further, there might be survivor benefits that are still payable to those who have lost their lives.
You are hereby officially commissioned to do the final study on this.
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Old Yesterday, 07:42 AM   #136
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You are hereby officially commissioned to do the final study on this.
Nope, just heuristic reasoning
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Old Yesterday, 08:27 AM   #137
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As to the OPs original question, yes, it has made me think more about my timing, (currently aged 62.3) but until I see more long term affect, my file date of between age 68-69 hasn’t changed. I continue to live as if my current income has a future SS of $45k already coming in, by reducing my tIRA and cash balances as a substitute. But with no travel costs this year, and good returns so far, the balance continues to climb.
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Old Yesterday, 09:12 AM   #138
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Not really if you consider that the economic damage has resulted in high unemployment causing lower SS tax collections, coupled with more people claiming earlier. Those SS age that have died from Covid is very small in comparison to 10,000 or more filing every day for SS which was the run rate prior to Covid. Further, there might be survivor benefits that are still payable to those who have lost their lives.
Yep in agreement with this thought from a logic perspective.
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