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Old 03-02-2018, 03:42 PM   #41
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Two months is not as long as a year though.

Can you imagine logging to your account after 1 year, and see that you now have 60 cents on the dollar? Like in 1998?

Well, I am sure that, unless one is on an island cut-off completely from the outside world, he is not going to miss something like the Great Recession.

I did go for 2 months or longer without making a trade. But with the yo-yo market, I can pick up a bit of money here and there. I like it.
Of course, but I can go a year without paying attention if I so choose. That was the design.

It’s long term investing. Other than annual rebalancing I don’t care it there is a sudden move during a given year. If I miss a mid-year rebalancing, no big deal.

60 cents on the dollar in 1998? What was that? Maybe if you were holding mostly international currencies.
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Old 03-02-2018, 03:48 PM   #42
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Just remember that if Apple is back at $92, there will be all kinds of news about the economy suffering, about them losing market share, about soft phone sales, about ... in other words risk of further loses.
My comment was in reply to another poster who felt that we were currently in the midst of an economic "perfect storm". My point was that a good pullback allows one to 'go back in time' and take advantage of 'what you know now'. With a few rarities, good companies will survive and prosper over time.

But, as the OP, the real question is if the aftermath of 2008 emboldened you. It did me and the current violent swings are only interesting at best. I knew a lot less about the market 10 years ago but I did know that I had little choice but to hold on and ride it out. Selling everything (as my oft mentioned neighbor did in Feb 09) was not a good option.
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Old 03-02-2018, 03:52 PM   #43
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But, as the OP, the real question is if the aftermath of 2008 emboldened you. It did me and the current violent swings are only interesting at best.
I canít say it emboldened me as an investor. I think it made me slightly more conservative both in terms of equity exposure, and tilting my fixed income towards overall higher quality bonds.

But it does make me yawn at 10% corrections, although I am NOT yawning at CAPE10 currently far exceeding 2007 levels.
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Old 03-02-2018, 03:53 PM   #44
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In 2008-09 I had (i thought) 15 years of w*rk and saving in front of me, so while it hit me hard, beneath the barely suppressed panic I knew I had time to recover.

Ten years later, having just retired, I have concerns about sequence risk. So I suspect my white-knuckle moments will be amplified when the next BIG downturn occurs. The current volatility has my attention.
I was about to post something very similar. In 2008 I kept my allocation the same and just kept investing in my 401K. It did not bother me much at all.

The recent volatility has me concerned as I am now in the deaccumulation phase. If the erosion continues I will learn something(s) about myself. I hope that I behave well and in my own best interests.
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Old 03-02-2018, 04:06 PM   #45
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Oops, meant 2008 when some balanced funds became 60 cents on the dollar in a year.

Anyway, back to the OP's question, having been through the tech meltdown in 2001 and 9/11, and then the Great Recession, I will be able to handle the next downturn better.

But I don't think the GR will be repeated. Rather, we may just have a long drawn-out period of poor market returns for both stocks and bonds, causing retirees to slowly drain their stash.

With SS to supplement my expenses, I will be OK. I am also older now. Less time on earth to worry much about running out of money. I will most likely run out of time first.

Still want to make money when I can, because it is a challenge and fun thing to do. Can't travel all the time, and too much travel turns it into work.
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Old 03-02-2018, 04:07 PM   #46
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I guess you're wife really likes her job (since you say you two already have more money than you'll ever spend and thus shouldn't have a need to work)?
Yes she does. The Grandkids also help. If only I could talk our kids into moving south.
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Old 03-02-2018, 04:48 PM   #47
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My comment was in reply to another poster who felt that we were currently in the midst of an economic "perfect storm". My point was that a good pullback allows one to 'go back in time' and take advantage of 'what you know now'. With a few rarities, good companies will survive and prosper over time.

But, as the OP, the real question is if the aftermath of 2008 emboldened you. It did me and the current violent swings are only interesting at best. I knew a lot less about the market 10 years ago but I did know that I had little choice but to hold on and ride it out. Selling everything (as my oft mentioned neighbor did in Feb 09) was not a good option.
Upon further reflection- did 2008 embolden me? NO. I feel very fortunate to have not sold early in 2009 when Jack Bogle waffled and stated that when you can't afford to lose any more you need to sell. Fact. I got some BS from the BH forum that sometimes you need to change course in a storm. However, I feel very fortunate that I plodded along, sold my spec lots in '07, kept my job and lost nothing in the process. From my first investments in '72 and through history I've learned plenty . Nothing fancy just plod along.
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Old 03-02-2018, 06:00 PM   #48
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"Spoiled" isn't the right word- it gave me perspective. It wasn't the first crash I'd been through and the good stuff recovers. I have a graph of my net worth by month going back 25 years, the last 4 with no new money, and the crashes are mere blips now.
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Old 03-02-2018, 10:15 PM   #49
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Yes, especially since I have a lot more cash. I bought at $96 back then. It's been my best move so far. Problem is, when do you sell....when AAPL looks to be tanking? When AAPL growth slows, whihc does happen in history but comes roaring back...or do you just keep holding today
I originally bought AAPL at (split adjusted)$.79/share. Over the years I sold all of it, at incredible profit levels. I sold when I had plenty of AGI room to get the 0% CG tax break. Since I won't be seeing those opportunities again (too much income), if I still owned it I would just keep it and let it pass on to DD after DW and I die, so she would get the cost basis step up. Now that I think about it, I'm in the same boat with BRK.B. I don't need the money from it, and don't want to pay the taxes. Luckily over the years I've moved the majority of my gambling account into a Roth IRA so I don't have to worry about these little issues.
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Did 2008 Recession Spoil You?
Old 03-02-2018, 10:17 PM   #50
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Did 2008 Recession Spoil You?

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I deliberately picked an investment style that lets me ignore the markets for a whole year if I so choose!


audreyh1, What is that style, please? Iím curious. I think I recall elsewhere that you use a fixed withdrawal % and park excess cash for use in the down years. What else makes you bullet-proof?
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Old 03-02-2018, 11:53 PM   #51
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audreyh1, What is that style, please? Iím curious. I think I recall elsewhere that you use a fixed withdrawal % and park excess cash for use in the down years. What else makes you bullet-proof?
Did I say I was bullet-proof? No, Iím just a passive investor. Boring.

I just picked an AA I thought I could stick with during ups and downs and I rebalance usually just once a year at the beginning of the year when I take my withdrawal. Thatís it.

I consider this a very low-maintenance mostly hands off approach. Iím not interested in tracking any economic data and acting on it or trolling for a quickie opportunity or in doing technical analysis. I didnít want any system that required me to watch anything or guess the future.

My goal was to be able to ignore the markets all the time if I wanted to. To be able to take off on a long trip and be blissfully ignorant of market happenings.
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Old 03-03-2018, 12:07 AM   #52
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Market investor since 1966. Full auto 2006 via Target Retirement as as in computor asset balance and re balance. AND since 2013 (70 1/2) full auto RMD into MM, FED and state tax deduct. Auto direct deposit dribble out to my local bank for spending cash.

Ignore and diddly bop on?

heh heh heh - nope. Still watch Mr Market and feel that little twinge in big moves. BUT so far 'hurry up just stand there' ala Mr Bogle. 'This time it's different' hasn't got me yet.
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Old 03-03-2018, 06:29 AM   #53
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But, as the OP, the real question is if the aftermath of 2008 emboldened you.
No. My circumstances are different, both financial and mental.
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Old 03-03-2018, 07:24 AM   #54
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Did I say I was bullet-proof? No, Iím just a passive investor. Boring.



I just picked an AA I thought I could stick with during ups and downs and I rebalance usually just once a year at the beginning of the year when I take my withdrawal. Thatís it.



I consider this a very low-maintenance mostly hands off approach. Iím not interested in tracking any economic data and acting on it or trolling for a quickie opportunity or in doing technical analysis. I didnít want any system that required me to watch anything or guess the future.



My goal was to be able to ignore the markets all the time if I wanted to. To be able to take off on a long trip and be blissfully ignorant of market happenings.


Thanks for sharing. That appeals to me too.
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Old 03-03-2018, 09:27 AM   #55
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Did the recession of '08 spoil you or ruin you?
Is none of the above allowed?
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Old 03-03-2018, 04:11 PM   #56
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I originally bought AAPL at (split adjusted)$.79/share. Over the years I sold all of it, at incredible profit levels. I sold when I had plenty of AGI room to get the 0% CG tax break. Since I won't be seeing those opportunities again (too much income), if I still owned it I would just keep it and let it pass on to DD after DW and I die, so she would get the cost basis step up. Now that I think about it, I'm in the same boat with BRK.B. I don't need the money from it, and don't want to pay the taxes. Luckily over the years I've moved the majority of my gambling account into a Roth IRA so I don't have to worry about these little issues.
The step up in basis and the ability to (better) control that is an advantage of single stock holdings that is frequently overlooked. I have some lots that have tremendous profit %'s, e.g.
some ADI w/purchase price $0.56, current price $89.53
some AAPL w/purchase price $1.40, current price $176.21
some EW w/purchase price $2.02, current price $134.56
and others.

Since I have a child, I am hoping that these investments remain wise and throw off enough dividend income such that I never have to sell them and DC will eventually receive them with a huge step up in basis. (These are not in tax-deferred accounts). So my income (when needed) will come from tax-deferred accounts (non Roth) which will come out as ordinary income regardless if it is to me or to DC via a beneficiary IRA.

Sometimes this strategy doesn't work out. If an investment starts to develop fundamental issues that cause me to question keeping it, I will need to sell it and deal with the lost basis opportunity. I also had a major holding (LLTC) with a very low cost basis get bought for mostly cash (by ADI in the list above), which generated a capital gain which I am dealing with on my 2017 taxes....so no step up on basis on that one.
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Old 03-03-2018, 04:49 PM   #57
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I learned from 2008 that the only activities I want to white knuckle from now on are at Six Flags, so we lowered our stock allocation.
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Old 03-03-2018, 05:01 PM   #58
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I'm more concerned about a 10 year span like 2000-2010. It worked out for me, because similar to others here, I was still accumulating.
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Old 03-03-2018, 05:04 PM   #59
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With the market seemingly taking a 300+ point drop every day of late, my general reaction is 'meh!'.

Having white-knuckled the 2008 Great Recession and survived it quite profitably, I'm wondering if one of the side benefits was for folks to have learned to not over-react to such drops.

So, did anyone else change their view of market drops/corrections after 2008? In addition to now viewing market plummets as buying opportunities, are you more relaxed about a big air pocket than before '08? Did the recession of '08 spoil you or ruin you?
I ERed in late 2008, when the markets were crashing. It greatly helped my ER because I was able to buy 20-25% more shares of my chosen bond fund at rock-bottom prices.

As for the stock side of my portfolio, the overall rise in the market has caused me to repeatedly rebalance away from stocks so many times that I have in my rollover IRA actually transferred out a little more than the original amount I bought into it back in late 2008. This means I am playing with the house's money, and that money has doubled (along with the bond side, mainly due to the influx of rebalancing money).

The recent bumps in the market have not fazed me, not even made a dent in my AA, so no rebalancing moves. It would take a lot more of a decline to cause me to even make a rebalancing move. And to frighten me to a degree even close to what happened in late 2008 I would need to see additional negative events like those we saw in 2008 such as rising unemployment and some big business failures. These days, it's just noise.
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Old 03-04-2018, 01:14 AM   #60
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"Where's the bottom?"

I probably asked myself that 100 times in 2008-09. I didn't sell and was 80% equities. I was anxious though! Even with years of living expenses in cash and plenty of work income. Future recessions won't be any easier for me mentally, and we're RE now, but I'll stick to my AA. And hope my cash reserves hold out.

Another BIG concern - access to quality, affordable health insurance after 2018.
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