Didn’t go cash stayed with AA any other Brave the market ER cohorts

[NW-Bound]

... Anybody else ever grow tired of the ‘bubble’ burst of the markets and think what’s wrong with just having 1mil instead of 2 or 3? Or $500k as a supplement to defined pension?

Well, 1 mil is still a lot more than many retirees have. But at 4% WR, that's only $40K/year instead of $80K, or $120K. And $500K? And what pension?

Being scroogey, I like as big a stash as possible, even if I am not looking to blow it. Just made some calculations, and found out that I could maintain the same living standard I did in the last 12 months using a WR of only 1%, assuming no big discretionary expenses like a new roof or a new car. Even these should not cause me to go over 4%, and then it would be only for that year.

And that's without drawing my own SS.

Do I want more money? You betcha. Money gives me a nice fuzzy feeling, and I like to give a bit to charity.

But back on the market, being a market timer I am on a path to 50% stock instead of my usual 80%. I am perversely wanting the recession to happen and to get it over with, so that I can go back to higher stock AA. If the market does not crash, I can live with 50% stock AA. Either way, it's OK.

 

[Live Large]

Last September, I commented how I was up 19% YTD, and was thrilled with 100% growth equities (trying to make up for years of non-investing). Needless to say, October/November 2018 took everyone on a ride, and December rebounded slightly, but still ended the year at only 8% YTD (down 10% from September).

This year in September I was up 24.5% and loving life, I kept hearing/seeing threatening news that was effecting the market, and decided to trust my gut. I went to 90% income securities, and have missed most of the rough down days so far. Maybe December/Christmas will bring a new growth pattern that I can get back in....we will see, but in the meantime, I have preserved some sizeable profits.

I also live a boring life in a LCOL area, and live pretty frugally compared to most, just trying to be able to F.I.R.E. with confidence and live comfortably.

I think your comment fits my thinking when I have secured some very handsomely profits ( not calling it market timing). I’ll always have some money
invested in equities- but I know I can spend quite a bit first 20yrs based on those type of profits - thanks for your insight.

 

[Live Large]

Well, 1 mil is still a lot more than many retirees have. But at 4% WR, that's only $40K/year instead of $80K, or $120K. And $500K? And what pension?

Being scroogey, I like as big a stash as possible, even if I am not looking to blow it. Just made some calculations, and found out that I could maintain the same living standard I did in the last 12 months using a WR of only 1%, assuming no big discretionary expenses like a new roof or a new car. Even these should not cause me to go over 4%, and then it would be only for that year.

And that's without drawing my own SS.

Do I want more money? You betcha. Money gives me a nice fuzzy feeling, and I like to give a bit to charity.

But back on the market, being a market timer I am on a path to 50% stock instead of my usual 80%. I am perversely wanting the recession to happen and to get it over with, so that I can go back to higher stock AA. If the market does not crash, I can live with 50% stock AA. Either way, it's OK.

I really appreciate your comments very honest as I think having money does give us the does give us that ‘fuzzy’ feeling- but I contrast it with the illusion we are somehow secure the more we have - Millionaires worry!
You admit market timing-results in profits it works for you good deal!

 

[Live Large]

I've been withdrawing the last two years about 3% from my account, but my online parttime gig will end next year. I've built up cash to fund 2.5 years from my account and if the market happens to go up 4-5 % over the next months/early next year, I'll scrape off another half year to a year and place in cash/shortterm bonds.
I'm right at 50-32-18 now, but DW (who can't withdraw from IRA yet) is 67-23-10. In 3 years I can draw from her accounts and in 2 more I'm at full SS age, so the real issue is the next 3 years. I'll probably balance the two accounts after she hits 59.5 and I can withdraw from both sets of accounts.
So, yes, I'm looking to scrape more stock gains opportunistically over the next 6 months or so. If not, I'll spend some of the bonds after exhausting the floating rate fund (don't want to go much below a 43% allocation in my funds but I could always increase stock allocation in DW's funds).

Very Prudent - good for you

 

[Senator]

I'm 95% stock indexes. Even if the market crashes by 50%, I am likely still up.

There are a lot of things to worry about than the market. A tax increase can wipe out your stash as much as a market drop.

 

[Live Large]

I'm 95% stock indexes. Even if the market crashes by 50%, I am likely still up.

There are a lot of things to worry about than the market. A tax increase can wipe out your stash as much as a market drop.

What you stated is the Key! Taxes...I’ve managed to have a tax benefit that does reduce my tax base by 55% so I net far more of monies. If I ever move from California to say NV or FL that could grow to another realized 20% 13% highest state tax plus gas tax, any product tax counties near 9% tax on taxes zstate.

 

[Live Large]

Thank you - yes 1mil is still a lot of money and a 4% ROI $40k would be a supplement to a state pension that is very decent after a 30yr tenure. Perhaps that’s why my market ‘worry’ is minimal I’m just seeking other like you intelligent ideas.
ER has been a wealth of shared ideas on handling retirement finances - thanks!

 

[NW-Bound]

I really appreciate your comments very honest as I think having money does give us the does give us that ‘fuzzy’ feeling- but I contrast it with the illusion we are somehow secure the more we have - Millionaires worry!
You admit market timing-results in profits it works for you good deal!

It will be a while before it is known if my market timing works.

I am simply willing to act on my belief that there is a good chance the economy is topping out and will contract. It is likely but not surely. If I knew for sure that a recession is coming, of course I would not keep 50% in stock and would go to all cash and bond.

 

[Oz investor]

So, I said I would hunker down, take profits off the table and go ultra conservative but it just really wasn’t my style of investing. Like many here, I subscribe to buy, hold, hold, maybe sell but more profits holding over time.
Projected targets over 5yr increments have mostly surpassed amount set but definitely over a ten year period. Now that I’ve actually retired (Circa April 18’)
I’m thinking about future ladder CD’s perhaps Vanguard and money market ultra conservative returns with a small consideration for inflation. Unique in DW and I household are two state pensions (CA) mine has an annual cola.
DW is currently still full-time maxing a 457b deferred and will catch-up her final 3yrs say 2021-2024.

Anybody else ever grow tired of the ‘bubble’ burst of the markets and think what’s wrong with just having 1mil instead of 2 or 3? Or $500k as a supplement to defined pension?
We are over the million category but it’s taking another hit, thus the post.

Debt is low - asset only 3 properties
DTI is only 22% we really live below are means but enjoy luxury (spend) travel.

I like the burn the dough threads but how about using a 20yr spread? Think this market will take us for a doozy!
We still have relative high income $200k yr but in San Francisco Bay CA.
Gas is over $4 again...lol. Go electric?

I really like ER Welcome your posts contrast/similar/unique

i decided i needed to harness the magic of compounding to grow my asset base

i expected the next BIG downturn in 2013 ( imagine if i had of sat on the sidelines for 6 years and missed those bargains in that time )

i still believe a BIG downturn is coming and i expect to have a major decrease in portfolio value at that time ( but at least i won't have to plead with the bank to let me access those idle savings and CDs , so i can grab some good prices )

since i have little in the way of a cash buffer my debt is very low ( basically current bills waiting to be paid )

what i have almost completely abandoned in the last 3 tears are interest-bearing securities and bonds ( imo) the risk v. reward balance is badly skewed against me .

living costs ( including health costs ) investment returns , and inflation will be VERY hard to predict in this 'uncharted territory '

i have taken SOME profits out of big winners and reinvested into other companies i think can grow sensibly ( so i hold about 200 stocks , funds and trusts , and ETFs )

am looking to avoid a 100% loss of investment capital hopefully having enough survivors to rebuild from , but M&A and company failures WILL hurt the portfolio in difficult times , of that i have no doubt ( plenty of disruption has happened to me already )

i also have some property but those will not be for sale unless truly desperate times

i would prefer to say i am 'buy and hold ' , but sometimes it is just sensible to take a little profit , or add some in a dip , or exit completely if the company moves in a strange direction , 'hold but watch closely ' might be a better description of my style

 

[BeachOrCity]

It will be a while before it is known if my market timing works.

I am simply willing to act on my belief that there is a good chance the economy is topping out and will contract. It is likely but not surely. If I knew for sure that a recession is coming, of course I would not keep 50% in stock and would go to all cash and bond.

I distinctly remember people were thinking recession in 1-2 years every year for about the past 5-6 years. Lots of gains in that period.

With 50/50 allocation as you stated I would be fine with the rebalance approach as a means of protecting myself.

 

[BeachOrCity]

I'm 95% stock indexes. Even if the market crashes by 50%, I am likely still up.

There are a lot of things to worry about than the market. A tax increase can wipe out your stash as much as a market drop.

Do you not count your real estate holdings in your AA? what would be your AA if you counted them?

The reason I ask is I think your holdings when you look at your cash flow real estate are MUCH more conservative than 95/5.

 

[Born2Fish]

Well, 1 mil is still a lot more than many retirees have. But at 4% WR, that's only $40K/year instead of $80K, or $120K. And $500K? And what pension?

Being scroogey, I like as big a stash as possible, even if I am not looking to blow it. Just made some calculations, and found out that I could maintain the same living standard I did in the last 12 months using a WR of only 1%, assuming no big discretionary expenses like a new roof or a new car. Even these should not cause me to go over 4%, and then it would be only for that year.

And that's without drawing my own SS.

Do I want more money? You betcha. Money gives me a nice fuzzy feeling, and I like to give a bit to charity.

But back on the market, being a market timer I am on a path to 50% stock instead of my usual 80%. I am perversely wanting the recession to happen and to get it over with, so that I can go back to higher stock AA. If the market does not crash, I can live with 50% stock AA. Either way, it's OK.

+1.

I am in OMY mode now. The only thing that could derail me is a huge drop in the market with me at a high stock allocation.

I think the S&P500 will drop to 2000 before increasing to 4000. Being 50/50 allows me to profit if it soars, or buy more at intervals of 10% price drops if it falls.

 

[NW-Bound]

I just looked and am still at 58.5% stock. Need to shed a few hundred $K to get to my target. As I hold many individual stocks and sector ETFs, choosing which ones to pull trigger on takes a bit of thinking. It is harder than for an indexer to unload the entire S&P.

One thing for sure is that of all sectors, the group that has all members doing well over the last 12 months is utility, except for PG&E. That tells me investors have been turning defensive for a while.

On the other hand, you would think pharmaceuticals would do well, but as a group their performance is terrible. Perhaps the political climate is a stronger factor.

Stock or even sector picking ain't easy.

 

[Live Large]

Do you not count your real estate holdings in your AA? what would be your AA if you counted them?



The reason I ask is I think your holdings when you look at your cash flow real estate are MUCH more conservative than 95/5.

Great ?

Don’t include actual real property - know it counts but held outside AA- only REIT equities if any. Suppose I’d balance more conservatively.

Oh if we all had a crystal ball [emoji326] But what fun would that be?

 

[NW-Bound]

Oh if we all had a crystal ball [emoji326] But what fun would that be?

Many posters agonize over the selection of an optimal WR. They want to die with the last penny spent. Knowing their date of death would let them do it.

However, I believe that if people know the exact date of their demise, many would become either despondent or insane. It's better not to know.

 

[Born2Fish]

I just looked and am still at 58.5% stock. Need to shed a few hundred $K to get to my target. As I hold many individual stocks and sector ETFs, choosing which ones to pull trigger on takes a bit of thinking. It is harder than for an indexer to unload the entire S&P.

One thing for sure is that of all sectors, the group that has all members doing well over the last 12 months is utility, except for PG&E. That tells me investors have been turning defensive for a while.

On the other hand, you would think pharmaceuticals would do well, but as a group their performance is terrible. Perhaps the political climate is a stronger factor.

Stock or even sector picking ain't easy.

I had a lot of BX that I bought at a good price and it went crazy this year. I was up nearly 80% YTD so I took profit. I will buy back once the dust settles.

PG, SO, D, DUK have had a great year, too. I have been holding them for a few years - good div stocks.

I want the market to correct so I can buy back a little at a time. (I bought SP500 at 2500 when it fell last year and then sold it at 2800.) I am NOT greedy.

 

[Live Large]

I had a lot of BX that I bought at a good price and it went crazy this year. I was up nearly 80% YTD so I took profit. I will buy back once the dust settles.



PG, SO, D, DUK have had a great year, too. I have been holding them for a few years - good div stocks.



I want the market to correct so I can buy back a little at a time. (I bought SP500 at 2500 when it fell last year and then sold it at 2800.) I am NOT greedy.

Taking profits w/o being greedy-smart

 

[Live Large]

Many posters agonize over the selection of an optimal WR. They want to die with the last penny spent. Knowing their date of death would let them do it.



However, I believe that if people know the exact date of their demise, many would become either despondent or insane. It's better not to know.

Knowing the future...date of demise? No, best to Live today but plan for tomorrow- oh, and have FUN!

 

[jollystomper]

Anybody else ever grow tired of the ‘bubble’ burst of the markets and think what’s wrong with just having 1mil instead of 2 or 3? Or $500k as a supplement to defined pension

At the beginning of 2018 I shifted to a more conservative 40/37/23 AA, as that is the level I could sleep with at night. With a pension, my target SWR was just over 2% for a comfortable retirement, and I had enough cash to not be forced to sell equities during a market downturn, before we choose to take SS. I am fine with hitting singles instead of going for the fences with a large stock AA at this point.

So far in almost 18 ER months, we have overestimated our cash needs by more than half, and they have been more than offset by our stock/bond market gains.The argument can be made that we should increase the stock allocation within our AA, especially since when we choose to take SS it plus pension and some interest/dividends will cover our comfortable living expenses not even counting cash. But I can only deal with the gyrations to a certain level, so we are choosing to stay the course with the AA that we have, maybe even a little less in stocks, as our goal is no longer to maximize our assets but to enjoy them.

 

[Live Large]

I had a lot of BX that I bought at a good price and it went crazy this year. I was up nearly 80% YTD so I took profit. I will buy back once the dust settles.



PG, SO, D, DUK have had a great year, too. I have been holding them for a few years - good div stocks.



I want the market to correct so I can buy back a little at a time. (I bought SP500 at 2500 when it fell last year and then sold it at 2800.) I am NOT greedy.

Lovely 80% return smart take profits my loaded shares of 1 stock has not blossom yet, but it will...I plan to take similar profits. Good for you...

 

[Live Large]

At the beginning of 2018 I shifted to a more conservative 40/37/23 AA, as that is the level I could sleep with at night. With a pension, my target SWR was just over 2% for a comfortable retirement, and I had enough cash to not be forced to sell equities during a market downturn, before we choose to take SS. I am fine with hitting singles instead of going for the fences with a large stock AA at this point.

So far in almost 18 ER months, we have overestimated our cash needs by more than half, and they have been more than offset by our stock/bond market gains.The argument can be made that we should increase the stock allocation within our AA, especially since when we choose to take SS it plus pension and some interest/dividends will cover our comfortable living expenses not even counting cash. But I can only deal with the gyrations to a certain level, so we are choosing to stay the course with the AA that we have, maybe even a little less in stocks, as our goal is no longer to maximize our assets but to enjoy them.

Your last sentence...goal is no longer to maximize our assets but to enjoy them Yes, that’s point on as I will end up doing the same- you take SS already? Still a decade away before early eligibility.