Didn’t go cash stayed with AA any other Brave the market ER cohorts

[Live Large]

So, I said I would hunker down, take profits off the table and go ultra conservative but it just really wasn’t my style of investing. Like many here, I subscribe to buy, hold, hold, maybe sell but more profits holding over time.
Projected targets over 5yr increments have mostly surpassed amount set but definitely over a ten year period. Now that I’ve actually retired (Circa April 18’)
I’m thinking about future ladder CD’s perhaps Vanguard and money market ultra conservative returns with a small consideration for inflation. Unique in DW and I household are two state pensions (CA) mine has an annual cola.
DW is currently still full-time maxing a 457b deferred and will catch-up her final 3yrs say 2021-2024.

Anybody else ever grow tired of the ‘bubble’ burst of the markets and think what’s wrong with just having 1mil instead of 2 or 3? Or $500k as a supplement to defined pension?
We are over the million category but it’s taking another hit, thus the post.

Debt is low - asset only 3 properties
DTI is only 22% we really live below are means but enjoy luxury (spend) travel.

I like the burn the dough threads but how about using a 20yr spread? Think this market will take us for a doozy!
We still have relative high income $200k yr but in San Francisco Bay CA.
Gas is over $4 again...lol. Go electric?

I really like ER Welcome your posts contrast/similar/unique

 

[pb4uski]

....but it’s taking another hit, thus the post. ...

Please elaborate. Also, what is your AA?

 

[SecondCor521]

As stated multiple times, I am a boring, LTBH, low cost, well-diversified, passive index investor. I've been 100% stocks for long periods of time, have been between 90/10 and 100/0 since at least 1987. I'm currently 93/7, with a lazy intent to get to 97/3.

I watch the market with bemusement, but have never changed my AA based on it's behavior and don't plan to start.

...

What do you mean by "a 20yr spread" ?

...

Yes, the market was down yesterday and probably down a percent or two today (haven't checked the close). It was down in Q4 2018. It was down in 2016, 2015, 2008-2009, 2001, 1993?, 1987, 1974, etc. The many up days and the up years after the down years don't get anywhere near as much news, but the math still works.

...

Gas here is somewhere around $2.70. I drive about 11K miles a year and my $2,500 26 year old sedan gets 20 mpg, so that's $1,507 in gas a year. Not really an issue. The payback on a $50K Tesla isn't there if you're just looking at dollars and cents: ($50K - $2.5K) / $1,507 is a long time. If you buy the argument that it's better for the environment, that could be a different discussion.

...

Yup, SFO is expensive. Maybe consider living somewhere else. "It's not what you make, it's what you keep."

 

[foxfirev5]

Live Large,
I think I catch your drift. Personally I stashed 25 years expenses in a 7 year CD ladder. The rest I'll just let ride in equities for the long run. Meanwhile I'm fortunate enough to live on the interest and dividends. At least until the yields collapse to zero. Then I'll tap the principal. After that the downside sets in but I'll be dead anyway. ☺

 

[joeea]

So, I said I would hunker down, take profits off the table and go ultra conservative but it just really wasn’t my style of investing.

I’m thinking about future ladder CD’s perhaps Vanguard and money market ultra conservative returns with a small consideration for inflation.

Is that your style?

 

[FREE866]

As stated multiple times, I am a boring, LTBH, low cost, well-diversified, passive index investor. I've been 100% stocks for long periods of time, have been between 90/10 and 100/0 since at least 1987. I'm currently 93/7, with a lazy intent to get to 97/3.

Thats pretty much where I'm at as well.
Do you draw down from that portfolio as well?

 

[marko]

So, I said I would hunker down, take profits off the table and go ultra conservative but it just really wasn’t my style of investing. Like many here, I subscribe to buy, hold, hold, maybe sell but more profits holding over time.

For better or worse, the '08/'09 debacle emboldened me to hold at 60/35/5. "Don't just do something; stand there!". "Over time" is the key phrase; there might be 2 or 3 or 5 flat years, but over time it tends to pay off.

We live off our dividends and interest and I only sell shares to rebalance and/or get rid of a dog and buy something showing more promise.

 

[SecondCor521]

Thats pretty much where I'm at as well.
Do you draw down from that portfolio as well?

Well, I try.

I lead a boring life in a LCOL area.

My gross withdrawal rate (spending / portfolio) is currently 2.43%.

I also have some income that doesn't come from my portfolio. That offsets most of my spending.

My net withdrawal rate ( (spending - non-portfolio income) / portfolio) is currently 0.77%.

Since I FIRE'd in February 2016, the market has been kind to me. I understand that could change.

 

[Live Large]

Please elaborate. Also, what is your AA?

Over weighted exposure in stocks 80/15/5%cash down 7% right now but I sleep well q I just felt I got a little greedy and should’ve cashed out but like to ride the wave peaks some valleys back to peak

 

[Live Large]

As stated multiple times, I am a boring, LTBH, low cost, well-diversified, passive index investor. I've been 100% stocks for long periods of time, have been between 90/10 and 100/0 since at least 1987. I'm currently 93/7, with a lazy intent to get to 97/3.

I watch the market with bemusement, but have never changed my AA based on it's behavior and don't plan to start.

...

What do you mean by "a 20yr spread" ?

...

Yes, the market was down yesterday and probably down a percent or two today (haven't checked the close). It was down in Q4 2018. It was down in 2016, 2015, 2008-2009, 2001, 1993?, 1987, 1974, etc. The many up days and the up years after the down years don't get anywhere near as much news, but the math still works.

...

Gas here is somewhere around $2.70. I drive about 11K miles a year and my $2,500 26 year old sedan gets 20 mpg, so that's $1,507 in gas a year. Not really an issue. The payback on a $50K Tesla isn't there if you're just looking at dollars and cents: ($50K - $2.5K) / $1,507 is a long time. If you buy the argument that it's better for the environment, that could be a different discussion.

...

Yup, SFO is expensive. Maybe consider living somewhere else. "It's not what you make, it's what you keep."

Got a lot from your comments, thanks. True on the market the math just works so I do sleep well - not as Long as you may have been bought & sold a few good stocks but I’m moving to hold longer dividend stock or Vanguard index - payment by spread I mean ROI for 20-25yrs not concerned if my principal goes to 0 at 80yrs old (if Alive) hence my moniker Live Large. My 457b is hedge on inflation on my pension that also has a cola. Roth IRA + 100k CS No, Tesla your right (math) Florida/Nevada

 

[Live Large]

Live Large,
I think I catch your drift. Personally I stashed 25 years expenses in a 7 year CD ladder. The rest I'll just let ride in equities for the long run. Meanwhile I'm fortunate enough to live on the interest and dividends. At least until the yields collapse to zero. Then I'll tap the principal. After that the downside sets in but I'll be dead anyway. ☺

Yes Yes! Spend your hard earned cash, I mean why did we all save all these years 25-30 to leave money sitting around. Can’t spend it all? Give it away while you here.
I’m ok if my ROI burns thru the principal within 20-25yrs once I start to withdraw in a couple years. ER’s at 51 start using at 55 won’t wait till forced make min w/d 70.5
No, enjoy the fruits while I can hike explore youthful physical capabilities very active
Travels include a first class ticket flight on occasion ��

 

[Live Large]

For better or worse, the '08/'09 debacle emboldened me to hold at 60/35/5. "Don't just do something; stand there!". "Over time" is the key phrase; there might be 2 or 3 or 5 flat years, but over time it tends to pay off.

We live off our dividends and interest and I only sell shares to rebalance and/or get rid of a dog and buy something showing more promise.

I subscribe to your Live Well by Living Large!
Plan to spend beyond the interest return 20yrs

 

[Live Large]

Is that your style?

No, much more of a high risk that has endured a few huge swings but such eventual new highs make me think I should become conservative- how much more needed?
Still live far below annual income way of lifestyle now but like the Blow that Dough threads...lol.

 

[BeachOrCity]

Over weighted exposure in stocks 80/15/5%cash down 7% right now but I sleep [emoji99] well q I just felt I got a little greedy and should’ve cashed out but like to ride the wave [emoji305] peaks some valleys back to peak

Umm, what’s happening now is minor volatility. The fact that you are even discussing not changing your AA during this “valley” may be an indication that you might be more likely to change it during a real 20-50% downturn?

 

[pb4uski]

Over weighted exposure in stocks 80/15/5%cash down 7% right now but I sleep �� well q I just felt I got a little greedy and should’ve cashed out but like to ride the wave �� peaks some valleys back to peak

How in the world can you be down 7% right now?

Even from its peak around July 27th the stock market is only down about 3.9% but is up over 16% for the year to date.

Poor stock picking?

 

[pb4uski]

Yes Yes! Spend your hard earned cash, I mean why did we all save all these years 25-30 to leave money sitting around. Can’t spend it all? Give it away while you here. ...

Totally agree... I saved it to spend it in retirement, not to hoard it.

 

[GenXguy]

I'm about to FIRE and have gone from 80% to 42% equities over the last year and a half. I'm at around 70X required expenses (inc taxes) in my stash, so I'm playing it conservative, as that leaves still leaves plenty for discretionary.

 

[ckelly78z]

Last September, I commented how I was up 19% YTD, and was thrilled with 100% growth equities (trying to make up for years of non-investing). Needless to say, October/November 2018 took everyone on a ride, and December rebounded slightly, but still ended the year at only 8% YTD (down 10% from September).

This year in September I was up 24.5% and loving life, I kept hearing/seeing threatening news that was effecting the market, and decided to trust my gut. I went to 90% income securities, and have missed most of the rough down days so far. Maybe December/Christmas will bring a new growth pattern that I can get back in....we will see, but in the meantime, I have preserved some sizeable profits.

I also live a boring life in a LCOL area, and live pretty frugally compared to most, just trying to be able to F.I.R.E. with confidence and live comfortably.

 

[jebmke]

Haven't held cash in decades.

 

[Live Large]

How in the world can you be down 7% right now?

Even from its peak around July 27th the stock market is only down about 3.9% but is up over 16% for the year to date.

Poor stock picking?

I have 1 large holding I’m awaiting next two ER for it to blossom- it has Me at the -7 but I’m ok with it. Like I’ve posted I do well.

 

[pb4uski]

I have 1 large holding I’m awaiting next two ER for it to blossom- it has Me at the -7 but I’m ok with it. Like I’ve posted I do �� well.

Good luck.

It does seem incongruent that you are nervous about stocks and have 1 large holding.... or perhaps that is why you are nervous about stocks.

 

[Live Large]

To your moniker- Have City Condo (SFO) looking for Beach perhaps Florida - Hold a dessert condo in Vegas. As to your post...Naw, I don’t panic sell when the tide goes out it tends to bring Gold when it rises again...lol. Just like the ideas you all offer. My goal like many here was exceeded so I get these thought to stock up a boat load of cash ie- ladder CD just to spend next 20-25yrs��

 

[marko]

My goal like many here was exceeded so I get these thought to stock up a boat load of cash ie- ladder CD just to spend next 20-25yrs��

Inflation not a worry for you over the next 25 years? Not sure those CDs will carry the day over that period.

 

[Live Large]

Good luck.

It does seem incongruent that you are nervous about stocks and have 1 large holding.... or perhaps that is why you are nervous about stocks.

Yes, as ironic as that might seem...although I wouldn’t say no not worried, just a little inpatient sometimes. Money is a great tool, it’s nice to have lots of it, but I know I’ll never go w/o food, shelter, & clothing. No, I just need to combat what I consider being “greedy” just a little bit more...As for being nervous? Perhaps just as nervous as the next post about uncertainties but that’s just life.

It’s more than Luck ~ I’ll never go Broke
But I’ll die that way...lol.

 

[RobLJ]

I've been withdrawing the last two years about 3% from my account, but my online parttime gig will end next year. I've built up cash to fund 2.5 years from my account and if the market happens to go up 4-5 % over the next months/early next year, I'll scrape off another half year to a year and place in cash/shortterm bonds.
I'm right at 50-32-18 now, but DW (who can't withdraw from IRA yet) is 67-23-10. In 3 years I can draw from her accounts and in 2 more I'm at full SS age, so the real issue is the next 3 years. I'll probably balance the two accounts after she hits 59.5 and I can withdraw from both sets of accounts.
So, yes, I'm looking to scrape more stock gains opportunistically over the next 6 months or so. If not, I'll spend some of the bonds after exhausting the floating rate fund (don't want to go much below a 43% allocation in my funds but I could always increase stock allocation in DW's funds).