ats5g said:
I think the author of this intended to create a fairly unpleasant sounding scenario, but I read it as "decide to follow up on a potentially good idea, fail to diversify or understand your investments, then feel woeful when short term issues arise."
I guess theres a handful of things to consider.
1) Producing an income to pay the bills and have a pleasant life
2) Protecting your investments from excessive loss
3) Volatility levels you can live with
4) Producing satisfactory growth of your investments to maintain your lifestyle and offset your personal rate of inflation
To me, bonds just strike out on #4. You're playing to not lose too badly, but lose you will.
I also miss out on the concept of putting 20-25% of your money into TIPS/equiv and calling that inflation protection. You've protected a small portion, no more. And you'll earn crappy rates of return excepting the brief periods of very high inflation. Which a lot of prognosticators (yeah, I know) feel arent in our future.
Stocks suck on #3, unless you're in it for the long haul in which case its almost irrelevant.
IMO, a year or two in cash and cd's, the rest in value stocks that pay a nice dividend, hang on for 20+ years, and you're going to accomplish all four objectives far better in the long run. Especially with the tax treatment that qualified dividends receive at this time.