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Do Financial Experts Make Better Decisions Than the Rest of Us?
10-27-2014, 03:23 PM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 402
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Do Financial Experts Make Better Decisions Than the Rest of Us?
Not necessarily, reports Atlantic Monthly. (At least in Sweden.)
Do Financial Experts Make Better Decisions Than the Rest of Us? - The Atlantic
"A new study spells more bad news for mutual-fund managers. It looks at 84 mutual-fund managers in Sweden and how they do when it comes to their own finances. This is the first study to look directly at fund managers' stock portfolios, real-estate ownership, total wealth, and personality in order to study whether extensive knowledge and day-to-day interaction with the stock market improves one's personal wealth.
The results were striking: The researchers found no evidence that these financial experts make better investments than peers of similar age, income, and education background—casting doubt on how much value is added by so-called expertise."
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10-27-2014, 03:28 PM
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#2
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Eastern WV Panhandle
Posts: 25,346
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No surprises there.
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When I was a kid I wanted to be older. This is not what I expected.
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10-27-2014, 04:05 PM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 14,328
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That's why they need to bleed off 1% or more off from your portfolio.
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10-27-2014, 07:37 PM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Houston
Posts: 1,448
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No different than when you see a doctor who is significantly overweight and smoking.
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10-27-2014, 08:15 PM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by soupcxan
No different than when you see a doctor who is significantly overweight and smoking.
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... which is rare I think. I have seen more smoking nurses, but they are not overweight. The overweight ones tend to be non-smokers.
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"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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10-27-2014, 10:39 PM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Los Angeles area
Posts: 1,708
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I do not consider mutual fund managers to be financial experts, just financial professionals.
Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger are financial experts.
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learn, work, save, invest, fire
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10-28-2014, 07:46 AM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 1,069
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Financial experts are people who can finance not working.
Full stop.
Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
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10-28-2014, 09:07 AM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 7,373
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I'm a retired actuary and I do think that the things I learned about compound interest really stuck with me and emphasized the power of compounding, why it was important to save early, etc. I was also able to construct a pretty straightforward Excel spreadsheet with variable assumptions about rates of return and inflation that served as a guide the last 10 years before I retired. It wasn't as fancy as the on-line calculators but I knew exactly what the assumptions (explicit and implicit) were. I have a similar one now that I'm retired to project cash flow and withdrawal rates.
It's not a guarantee, of course. I know one actuary who retired to engage in day-trading and ended up going back to work PT. Another was profiled in a NY Times article at the worst part of the financial crisis: he'd retired after all his fancy models showed it would be OK and then after the markets plummeted he decided to go look for work again. The people on the actuarial Board I frequent weren't very nice in their comments about him.
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