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View Poll Results: Are we headed for doom in 2023?
Yes, things are going to get bad! Sell, Sell, Sell... 11 6.96%
No, this is just like any other time. Buy and hold... 43 27.22%
I don't have a crystal ball so how would I know... 104 65.82%
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Old 07-04-2021, 07:53 AM   #21
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Since thatís the year Iíd like to hang it up...yep. Sounds about right.
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Old 07-04-2021, 08:57 AM   #22
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How did you react in March / April 2020 ?
In April 2020, I moved $100K from one 'dog' of a fund to another fund that had had a sudden 36% drop. It is now up 69.4% from April 2020, so a nice gain; while not a market timer, I saw a bargain opportunity and took it.

The 2008 fiasco emboldened me. It was supposed to be the end of life as we know it and instead the relatively rapid recovery gave me a lot of confidence in market drops as opportunities vs calamities. It's your chance to go back in time and find bargains.

I often mention my "smarter than you" neighbor who proudly announced on the last Friday of Feb, 2008 that she had just "sold everything"; the following week, well......
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Old 07-04-2021, 09:13 AM   #23
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No contradiction here. I have 75x yearly living expenses not including pension or SS. As I said, I am merely curious as to what other people think. I happen to think there will be a big crash in 2023 but I'm most probably wrong. If there is, it will be a great buying opportunity.
OK, I kinda missed that.

So sure, 2023, (or any recent or future year) could be the start of something similar to the 5% worst in history, or even worse.

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Old 07-04-2021, 09:17 AM   #24
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I think the excesses of this market are way beyond the year 2000. Meme stocks, crypto, real estate gone berserk. Is it going down? I don't know.
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Old 07-04-2021, 09:28 AM   #25
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I often mention my "smarter than you" neighbor who proudly announced on the last Friday of Feb, 2008 that she had just "sold everything"; the following week, well......
Well, if she was smart enough to buy it all back around Thanksgiving 2008, or March 9, 2009, I'd say she was a market timing genius. But, somehow, I have a feeling she didn't do that?
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Old 07-04-2021, 09:34 AM   #26
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Well, if she was smart enough to buy it all back around Thanksgiving 2008, or March 9, 2009, I'd say she was a market timing genius. But, somehow, I have a feeling she didn't do that?
While I was working for MegaCorp that March 2009 was a really terrible time. Massive layoffs left and right and I survived the cut. My responsibilities doubled overnight and I was lucky to still have a job.
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Old 07-04-2021, 10:13 AM   #27
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It will be a terrible time, but we'll stick with our AA. Had to go with #1 because of the limited options available in the poll.

What I mean by a terrible time is the 2001 and 2009 recessions. For working people it became very harsh. OTH retired and FIRE will survive, some with belt-tightening.
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Old 07-04-2021, 10:35 AM   #28
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I pulled enough money out of the market last year to meet our basic income needs long-term, leaving us with a current market allocation of about 30% stocks, plus an ESOP.

I'm uncomfortable with current economic conditions and their potential impact on stocks, but am not making any predictions. Except for allocating funds from selling ESOP shares (as we're eligible) mostly to stocks, I don't plan to do much whatever happens.
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Old 07-04-2021, 11:09 AM   #29
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Well, if she was smart enough to buy it all back around Thanksgiving 2008, or March 9, 2009, I'd say she was a market timing genius. But, somehow, I have a feeling she didn't do that?
She never went back to the market. Lost a fortune in misses opportunities.
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Old 07-04-2021, 11:19 AM   #30
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The longer a person has been an investor, the less confident they are in their ability to predict. This is a manifestation of the Dunning Kruger effect: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunnin...3Kruger_effect
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Old 07-04-2021, 11:57 AM   #31
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Not sure about "Doom". Maybe year of consolidation. By then the Fed's taper plans should be clearly in view. There will be a negative market reaction.

And statistically I am assuming equities will be less bouyant after this year, for the next 5-10 years. Reversion to the mean, and the impact of higher taxes, regulation and low population growth.
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Old 07-04-2021, 12:54 PM   #32
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We are in a dangerous position because our leadership as the world economy#1 is slowly but surely deteriorate. So what? It is just my opinion that what my happen is the US$ being in 60% of the world trade would surely be pushed back to 55, 50% and high inflation of the US$ may happen. However, where to invest? If high inflation is going to happen, most likely equities, RE, gas, oil, PM and many other assets will go higher. May be sit quiet and wait is still better choice.
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Old 07-04-2021, 01:55 PM   #33
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How did you react in March / April 2020 ?
I rebalanced in early April since my quarterly 'check to see if I need to rebalance' happened.

In other words... I reacted according to my plan. Didn't panic buy or sell.
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Old 07-04-2021, 04:14 PM   #34
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I don't know if or when the market will crash. But I think the chance is not high that the market will go even more gangbuster than it already has.

I am trying to reduce my stock AA from the current 78% back down to 60%. Being a stock lover, I find that it is hard to do.
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Old 07-04-2021, 04:26 PM   #35
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Iím buying more stock. Markets might crash, but I donít worry about it. The long term trend has always been positive and if that changes, then there are bigger issues going on.

Hereís to a repeat of the roaring 20s!
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Old 07-04-2021, 04:32 PM   #36
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Iím buying more stock...
Great. Whenever I click "sell", I always know there's somebody else who clicks "buy".

Stock liquidity is so great, I simply cannot get interested in other assets such as RE.
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Old 07-04-2021, 06:42 PM   #37
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I'm 8 months away from retirement. I've been playing with FireCalc and it says I don't have anything to worry about. This post is not based in fear, I'm actually genuinely curious if people think this is going to be one of those rare 5% failure rate years that has happened in the past. If you are not a "PermaBear" but you think we are headed for doom I would love to hear what you have to say.
i just hope itís not 1861.
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Old 07-04-2021, 07:13 PM   #38
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Nah. 2032 is the next Y2K get ready now.
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Old 07-04-2021, 07:29 PM   #39
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Nah. 2032 is the next Y2K get ready now.


Iím putting all my investments into tulip bulbs. I got a tip from my cousinís dental hygienist.
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Old 07-04-2021, 07:50 PM   #40
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Nah. 2032 is the next Y2K get ready now.
I thought it was 2038, for all the unix based systems?
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