Join Early Retirement Today
View Poll Results: Are we headed for doom in 2023?
Yes, things are going to get bad! Sell, Sell, Sell... 11 6.96%
No, this is just like any other time. Buy and hold... 43 27.22%
I don't have a crystal ball so how would I know... 104 65.82%
Voters: 158. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Do you think 2023 is 1929, 1966, 2000, etc?
Old 07-03-2021, 06:40 PM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Posts: 215
Do you think 2023 is 1929, 1966, 2000, etc?

I'm 8 months away from retirement. I've been playing with FireCalc and it says I don't have anything to worry about. This post is not based in fear, I'm actually genuinely curious if people think this is going to be one of those rare 5% failure rate years that has happened in the past. If you are not a "PermaBear" but you think we are headed for doom I would love to hear what you have to say.
__________________
FIREd @ 55 (March 1st, 2022)

“A calm and modest life brings more happiness than the pursuit of success combined with constant restlessness”
- Albert Einstein
rmcelwee is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 07-03-2021, 06:49 PM   #2
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 491
I saw a chart today showing how there are more companies losing money that being profitable right now. Eg dot com bubble.

I would certainly double check your seat belt is fastened
captain3d is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-03-2021, 07:07 PM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
ER Eddie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,687
The world will end in 2023! Prepare yourselves! Repent!

ER Eddie is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-03-2021, 07:14 PM   #4
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 145
2000 on Steroids. But with Fed as a back-stop.
yhoomajor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-03-2021, 07:16 PM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Car-Guy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Citizen of Texas
Posts: 7,723
This time is different....
__________________
I don't know how to act my age since I've never been this old before.
Car-Guy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-03-2021, 07:53 PM   #6
Moderator Emeritus
aja8888's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: The Woodlands, TX
Posts: 15,966
Quote:
Originally Posted by Car-Guy View Post
This time is different....
It's always different!
__________________
Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth...philosopher Mike Tyson
aja8888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-03-2021, 07:55 PM   #7
Moderator
rodi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: San Diego
Posts: 13,192
Since I'm not a market timer and my investment plan calls for rebalancing to my preferred asset allocation on both down markets and up markets... It's all good. Not going to sell on a prediction that the market may crash. Not going to buy on a prediction the market may boom... Just rebalance as needed.

And I'm finally reaching the point where I'm less worried about sequence of returns risk (SORR). I would probably be more nervous if I was just approaching retirement or very recently retired.
__________________
Retired June 2014. No longer an enginerd - now I'm just a nerd.
micro pensions 6%, rental income 20%
rodi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-03-2021, 08:05 PM   #8
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Ready's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Southern California
Posts: 3,944
Ask me again in 30 years and I’ll give you a definitive answer.
Ready is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-03-2021, 09:12 PM   #9
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Major Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: SF East Bay
Posts: 3,989
I feel much the same as rodi. It's easy for those of us who have been retired for a while, to be fairly sanguine about current and potential future market conditions - especially if we have a cushion built in to our withdrawal plans. If I were within a year or two of retirement, I'd be feeling much more confident if there was plenty of latitude for adjustment in my numbers than if I were playing things close to the edge.

For instance, if my entire retirement income were coming from an investment portfolio, and Firecalc was giving me a 95% success rate, I'd be wondering how much my portfolio could drop were I to retire just before a significant correction or crash. Even if the portfolio were to survive such an event, I'd be wondering how much the market drops would be likely to make my stomach churn, and cause sleepless nights. The trouble is, when you're new at retirement, you don't actually know how you'd react to such an event.

After about 12 years of retirement, I still don't know how I'd react to a major market event. However, I now have a significant cushion built into my portfolio, and am just 5 years from early SS, if I need it.
__________________
Contentedly ER, with 3 furry friends (now, sadly, 1).
Planning my escape to the wide open spaces in my campervan (with my remaining kitty, of course!)
On a mission to become the world's second most boring man.

Major Tom is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-03-2021, 09:14 PM   #10
Recycles dryer sheets
PhrugalPhan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: DC 'burbs
Posts: 133
As someone retiring in 2023, why that year? Why not 2022 or 2024? I guess I am not worried about it, but then again I have a solid pension awaiting me in 2023 so I feel fairly solid no matter what happens.
PhrugalPhan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-03-2021, 09:28 PM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 25,270
Quote:
Originally Posted by rmcelwee View Post
I'm 8 months away from retirement. I've been playing with FireCalc and it says I don't have anything to worry about. This post is not based in fear, I'm actually genuinely curious if people think this is going to be one of those rare 5% failure rate years that has happened in the past. If you are not a "PermaBear" but you think we are headed for doom I would love to hear what you have to say.
Seems like a contradiction.

FIRECalc history says you have nothing to worry about, but you are worried about the 5%? If you are running with a 95% success rate, then that 5% is something to worry about (in historical context).

If you are worried about the historical 5% failures, cut your spending a bit to reach historical 100%, it won't be that much less. And you can use the "retire again and again"plan to raise your spending if the market does well.

-ERD50
ERD50 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-03-2021, 09:55 PM   #12
Moderator Emeritus
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 46,220
Quote:
Originally Posted by Car-Guy View Post
This time is different....
That's what my (normally) brilliant big brother told me about the market in 2008! Thank goodness I couldn't figure out what to do about it, so in the depths of my confusion I did nothing.

That worked for me pretty well! So, that's my plan now. My crystal ball just isn't working like it should.

__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-03-2021, 10:59 PM   #13
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Posts: 215
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Seems like a contradiction.

FIRECalc history says you have nothing to worry about, but you are worried about the 5%?
-ERD50
No contradiction here. I have 75x yearly living expenses not including pension or SS. As I said, I am merely curious as to what other people think. I happen to think there will be a big crash in 2023 but I'm most probably wrong. If there is, it will be a great buying opportunity.
__________________
FIREd @ 55 (March 1st, 2022)

“A calm and modest life brings more happiness than the pursuit of success combined with constant restlessness”
- Albert Einstein
rmcelwee is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-04-2021, 03:08 AM   #14
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 9,814
Quote:
Originally Posted by rmcelwee View Post
No contradiction here. I have 75x yearly living expenses not including pension or SS. As I said, I am merely curious as to what other people think. I happen to think there will be a big crash in 2023 but I'm most probably wrong. If there is, it will be a great buying opportunity.
If you are at 75x expenses not including Pension or SS, then by default you must be at 100% success rate in Firecalc with a lot of room to spare.
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-04-2021, 03:11 AM   #15
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Posts: 215
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtail View Post
If you are at 75x expenses not including Pension or SS, then by default you must be at 100% success rate in Firecalc with a lot of room to spare.
Yes I am. Let me quote my original post:

"This post is not based in fear, I'm actually genuinely curious if people think this is going to be one of those rare 5% failure rate years that has happened in the past."
__________________
FIREd @ 55 (March 1st, 2022)

“A calm and modest life brings more happiness than the pursuit of success combined with constant restlessness”
- Albert Einstein
rmcelwee is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-04-2021, 03:16 AM   #16
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Location: Glasgow
Posts: 184
Quote:
Originally Posted by Major Tom View Post
After about 12 years of retirement, I still don't know how I'd react to a major market event. However, I now have a significant cushion built into my portfolio, and am just 5 years from early SS, if I need it.
How did you react in March / April 2020 ?
Jim59 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-04-2021, 04:20 AM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
DrRoy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Michigan
Posts: 3,944
I think 2023 is . . . . . . . . . . 2023.
__________________
"The mountains are calling, and I must go." John Muir
DrRoy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-04-2021, 06:27 AM   #18
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Crownsville
Posts: 3,003
This time it's different...just like every other time!
Andre1969 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-04-2021, 06:46 AM   #19
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Crownsville
Posts: 3,003
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim59 View Post
How did you react in March / April 2020 ?
Everybody's experience is going to be different, but for me, the COVID crash came so fast, I didn't have time to react. I had hit a new financial high on February 19, but by March 23 was down about 35%. For the year, I was down about 30.5%.

The recovery was quick, though. I finished out March "only" down about 21.5% for the year. By April, I was down about 13.3%. By August I was up about 3% for the year, and I finished 2020 with a return of around 13.2%.

I'll admit, when I first took the hit, my initial thought was "oh crap, this might get bad!" But I didn't make any rash decisions. I did a little rebalancing here and there if some of my asset allocations got too far out of whack, but I didn't do any major selloffs or anything.

I can't speak for Major Tom, but I'd imagine if he's been retired for 12 years and doing fine, he doesn't have to worry about a bad string of sequence of returns. That usually only factors in, if you retire during a peak year, and then the economy crashes and stays down for awhile.

Still, I imagine that, no matter how far along you might be, when there's some kind of bad economic event, it's hard to shake the feeling that, "This time it WILL be different!"
Andre1969 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-04-2021, 07:20 AM   #20
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Midwest
Posts: 2,763
Quote:
Originally Posted by yhoomajor View Post
2000 on Steroids. But with Fed as a back-stop.

Probably this. I won't swear to 2023 but when it's time for the next correction/bear market crash-boom-bam. The economy in general and the stock market in particular have become a gordion knot, of sorts, ever since the democratization of stock owning. It's one thing to let a handful of jillionairs (Don Ameche and Ralph Bellamy) lose a bunch of money because of "how businesses operate" but unacceptable to let a jillion Joe & Josephine Averages lose their 401k's. That's what they always say at CNBC. Can't let the stock market fall. Everybody will lose their 401k's.
razztazz is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
1966 - 1982 all over again HokieHill FIRE and Money 14 11-01-2008 02:03 PM
Wow, thank you, etc, etc gray_jay Hi, I am... 1 07-12-2006 02:38 PM
1966-1982 - Stock Market return of zero. Cut-Throat FIRE and Money 14 02-20-2004 03:34 AM
Stock Market from 1966-1982 - Nowhere???? Cut-Throat FIRE and Money 8 10-30-2003 05:19 AM
Another 1966-1982? FinallyRetired FIRE and Money 8 05-25-2003 09:52 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:19 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.