Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 04-09-2020, 01:05 PM   #181
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Florida's First Coast
Posts: 6,124
Don't the wild daily swings remind you of the old (maybe still current) "Day Traders" buying in the morning, selling in the afternoon?
__________________
"Never Argue With a Fool, Onlookers May Not Be Able To Tell the Difference." - Mark Twain
ShokWaveRider is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 04-09-2020, 01:56 PM   #182
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: SoCal, SE Florida, Lausanne
Posts: 3,019
Quote:
Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider View Post
Don't the wild daily swings remind you of the old (maybe still current) "Day Traders" buying in the morning, selling in the afternoon?
The day traders have been replaced by algorithm trading bots.
Freedom56 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 03:11 PM   #183
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtail View Post
I agree and you have a good rep on this site.
So (I don't remember), when there were 2 false starts of an upwards market in 2008 before finally settling to the lowest point, was the feeling the same as now?
I was busy trying to find a job and save capitalism for future generations, so I do not recall.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

- George Orwell

Ezekiel 23:20
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 03:12 PM   #184
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
Quote:
Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider View Post
Don't the wild daily swings remind you of the old (maybe still current) "Day Traders" buying in the morning, selling in the afternoon?
Looks like short covering to me.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

- George Orwell

Ezekiel 23:20
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 03:15 PM   #185
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 311
Well, as of today I'm officially all cash. Still buying stocks via paycheck deductions every two weeks, but I no longer trust this market at all. I never liked casinos and can't make any sense of the investing landscape these days. Bonds seem as risky as stocks at this point. I don't see any form of fair market capitalism anywhere, so for now, I'm out. Will be losing to inflation, but I'm OK with that. No FOMO for me. Good luck all.
__________________
Seems to me that the corporation's race to the top is resulting in a race to the bottom for the employee's quality of life. FIRE can't come soon enough.
kjpliny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 03:27 PM   #186
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: SoCal
Posts: 352
Quote:
Originally Posted by kjpliny View Post
Well, as of today I'm officially all cash. Still buying stocks via paycheck deductions every two weeks, but I no longer trust this market at all. I never liked casinos and can't make any sense of the investing landscape these days. Bonds seem as risky as stocks at this point. I don't see any form of fair market capitalism anywhere, so for now, I'm out. Will be losing to inflation, but I'm OK with that. No FOMO for me. Good luck all.
did you invest inequities thinking it would only go up ?
targatom2019 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 03:45 PM   #187
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 311
Quote:
Originally Posted by vipertom1970 View Post
did you invest inequities thinking it would only go up ?
No, I have been very conservatively invested for almost 3 decades, where bonds paid decent returns and stocks rose and fell due to earnings, "normal" speculation, and future business potential.

Since TGR and the Fed's manipulation of interest rates and the unfair bailing out of banks, I have been somewhat suspect of this type of interference, but it appeared as though corporations were still valued properly and risk seemed reasonable. Over the past few years, valuations have become unreasonable, and prices have largely been based on manipulation via buybacks. When the Fed tried getting rates slowly back to normal in 2018, the market reacted violently which made them stop tightening and start easing again, juicing the market once again. Artificially low rates, money printing, enabling the bad actors with bailouts, and stock prices near record highs when real earnings can't be known strikes me as a recipe for disaster.

I will gladly hold onto my two commas until I feel that things begin to make more sense. That may never happen, so I'll still be buying in with very little risk for huge losses over the near term. I just don't trust the current system...it looks wrong, it feels wrong and I need to sleep at night.
__________________
Seems to me that the corporation's race to the top is resulting in a race to the bottom for the employee's quality of life. FIRE can't come soon enough.
kjpliny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 03:52 PM   #188
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by kjpliny View Post
Well, as of today I'm officially all cash. Still buying stocks via paycheck deductions every two weeks, but I no longer trust this market at all. I never liked casinos and can't make any sense of the investing landscape these days. Bonds seem as risky as stocks at this point. I don't see any form of fair market capitalism anywhere, so for now, I'm out. Will be losing to inflation, but I'm OK with that. No FOMO for me. Good luck all.
I think it's a smart move to get out with this rally to where we are now. This is a trader's market, not a market for investors. The Pre-Pandemic market was 10-20% overvalued. Now we're back to about 20% down from the highs....with everything that has happened. In no world does that make any sense to me. I understand that the virus is peaking in NYC. I understand that the Treasury and Fed is doing things so unprecedented, not just firing bazookas, but tomahawk misses.....that it makes what they did during the Great Recession look like kids with water guns.

There is just no way that this market stays where it is, or that we don't revisit the bottom when the truth of the economic wreckage is revealed. We're just getting started. Keep your powder dry. That's what we're doing.
k-man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 04:06 PM   #189
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 32,251
Quote:
Originally Posted by kjpliny View Post
....the unfair bailing out of banks....
I hate to let facts get in the way of a good argument, but the "bailout" did not cost taxpayers anything.... the receiving banks paid a total of $226.7 billion vs $204.9 billion lent. The $21.8 billion of profit to the government far exceeded what the government paid in interest on any government bonds issued to fund the program.

To claim that the bank bailout was unfair is sheer ignorance of the facts.

Additionally, some of the stronger banks at the time didn't want the money but Hank Paulson strong-armed them into taking it anyway as he didn't want the banks who wanted and needed it to be perceived as weak-sisters.

https://www.gao.gov/assets/680/676954.pdf

On the rest of the post, I pretty much agree... the actions of the Fed to prop up the stock market bother me and are part of the reason that I'm not keen on equities.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.

Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 04:14 PM   #190
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 311
Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
I hate to let facts get in the way of a good argument, but the "bailout" did not cost taxpayers anything.... the receiving banks paid a total of $226.7 billion vs $204.9 billion lent. The $21.8 billion of profit to the government far exceeded what the government paid in interest on any government bonds issued to fund the program.

To claim that the bank bailout was unfair is sheer ignorance of the facts.

Additionally, some of the stronger banks at the time didn't want the money but Hank Paulson strong-armed them into taking it anyway as he didn't want the banks who wanted and needed it to be perceived as weak-sisters.

https://www.gao.gov/assets/680/676954.pdf

On the rest of the post, I pretty much agree... the actions of the Fed to prop up the stock market bother me and are part of the reason that I'm not keen on equities.
I don't believe in bailouts for anyone, at any time. Risk should be managed by the free market, and pain is sometimes needed to correct a badly designed system of perpetual debt.
__________________
Seems to me that the corporation's race to the top is resulting in a race to the bottom for the employee's quality of life. FIRE can't come soon enough.
kjpliny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 04:18 PM   #191
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 32,251
Quote:
Originally Posted by kjpliny View Post
I don't believe in bailouts for anyone, at any time. Risk should be managed by the free market, and pain is sometimes needed to correct a badly designed system of perpetual debt.
Fine that you believe that... but it doesn't make it unfair. What is unfair is to mischaracterize something as unfair just because you don't like it.

And by the way... if there were no intervention and the free market was allowed to work then it's pretty clear to me that we, including "Main Street", would have been much worse off.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.

Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 04:26 PM   #192
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 32,333
Quote:
Originally Posted by razztazz View Post
If it's priced in massive unemployment and system-wide large scale reduction in business operation the market should be going downer and downer. Those things don't make markets go up.


This notion of pricing-in is as ephemeral and variable as a feather in the wind. There's always a by-the-way and a Yeah, but... in there to make it seem plausible.
Agreed. The market has not yet priced in major economic downturn, it’s still hoping for a quick and easy exit.

I only ever see the market pricing in speculative BS and constantly changing its mind. Total emotion.

Except for our panic week of crazy hedge covering, this market seems to remain stubbornly optimistic.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 04:43 PM   #193
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 311
Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
And by the way... if there were no intervention and the free market was allowed to work then it's pretty clear to me that we, including "Main Street", would have been much worse off.
I agree...and interest rates would be higher, and people with savings might be getting a normal return.
__________________
Seems to me that the corporation's race to the top is resulting in a race to the bottom for the employee's quality of life. FIRE can't come soon enough.
kjpliny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 05:36 PM   #194
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Reno
Posts: 1,181
At one point in HS, I thought libertarianism had an interesting point, and then I read Galbraith's history of the Great Depression.

That said, the Fed's interventions generally don't trickle all the way down, and curiously most of the water seems to stay near the top.

Just read this article, serendipitously after seeing a tweet (don't agree with it all, but he makes a series of good points):

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/202...n-manipulated/



Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
Fine that you believe that... but it doesn't make it unfair. What is unfair is to mischaracterize something as unfair just because you don't like it.

And by the way... if there were no intervention and the free market was allowed to work then it's pretty clear to me that we, including "Main Street", would have been much worse off.
RobLJ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 05:54 PM   #195
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobLJ View Post
At one point in HS, I thought libertarianism had an interesting point, and then I read Galbraith's history of the Great Depression.

That said, the Fed's interventions generally don't trickle all the way down, and curiously most of the water seems to stay near the top.

Just read this article, serendipitously after seeing a tweet (don't agree with it all, but he makes a series of good points):

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/202...n-manipulated/
Exactly right. We can see now, in real time, how hard it is to get the Fed and even the Treasury to effectively get money to Main Street. It's too slow, and will be too late for many.

This new 2.3 trillion today...sure, 600 Billion of that is for those businesses that fall between the Boeings of the world...and the little Italian pizza joint you love around the block. So..for those companies with 10K employees or less, with gross revs less than 2.5 billion...I suppose it's something. But that 600 Billion....is loans. I'm not saying it shouldn't be...but the Fed is opening another giant "window" for banks to come to...and borrow....in order to lend to "mid-size" corporations. Banks are going to have assess those loan applications to determine the risk to their balance sheets. And a lot of those loans won't be made. If banks start adding risky loans to their balance sheets, the incentives that the Fed is offering them...won't be enough to off-set their risk.
k-man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 05:56 PM   #196
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: SoCal
Posts: 352
Quote:
Originally Posted by k-man View Post
I think it's a smart move to get out with this rally to where we are now. This is a trader's market, not a market for investors. The Pre-Pandemic market was 10-20% overvalued. Now we're back to about 20% down from the highs....with everything that has happened. In no world does that make any sense to me. I understand that the virus is peaking in NYC. I understand that the Treasury and Fed is doing things so unprecedented, not just firing bazookas, but tomahawk misses.....that it makes what they did during the Great Recession look like kids with water guns.

There is just no way that this market stays where it is, or that we don't revisit the bottom when the truth of the economic wreckage is revealed. We're just getting started. Keep your powder dry. That's what we're doing.

so when did you sell and when are you planning to get back in ?
targatom2019 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 06:29 PM   #197
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by vipertom1970 View Post
so when did you sell and when are you planning to get back in ?

We moved out of VBIAX on February 25th....right around 27K on the Dow at the close. Moved all of it to VMFXX. We only just moved everything to VBIAX in mid January because we felt like the market was 10-20% overvalued (pre-pandemic). Prior to that our allocation was very aggressive...85 US Index funds/11 international funds and 4% bonds. We're 52 AND 51...So with the run the market has had, the move to VBIAX felt like the right move.

Then the pandemic hit...and we got out on the 25th....we're down 3-4% from our portfolio high when we got out. When will we get back in? Honestly, we're reading and studying as much as we can. But I can tell you that 37% down as fast as we got there did not feel like the bottom to us. There's no precent for this on a global scale in our lifetimes. But to us, it "feels" like it's somewhere between the Great Recession and the Great Depression. And the Great Recession took 16-17 months to play out. We are just not going to bounce out of this thing.

It just makes absolutely no sense to me, that after what we've all experienced, just from the pandemic itself, justifies that we're now down just 20%...and that everything is priced in (even factoring in Fed/Treasury moves). Much of what the Fed is doing is simply "backstopping' to keep markets trading in a functional manner....straight up QE. The only "helicopter money" is the stimulus checks, but it's slow in arriving. The small business "helicopter money" is the PPP....and that's off to a terrible-slow start. That money will not arrive in time to save many small businesses.

And all of the rest of the Fed/Treasury moves....are loans. And sure, banks can go to one of nine million fed windows to borrow money from them at an incredibly low rate, with tons of additional incentives to do so. But that loan still sits on the bank's balance sheet...and ultimately, if they write a bad loan...they're on the hook.

So...ultimately, we (me and the wife) feel like this could be a long wait on the sidelines. We're not biting now. We talked about starting to DCA back in at 40-50% down, but we never got that low with the first shock/drop. We know we can't guess the bottom...and we could be completely wrong, but we'd rather protect what we have and understand that we possibly may have already missed the bottom, then to jump back in now to see a 30-50% drop from where we are now.

Does anyone....anyone...legit think this market should be trading 20% below the highs right now? We haven't even begun to understand the wreckage that our economy has already endured. The market will turn before we get the full grasp of that...it always will. But I truly don't think we're close to that.
k-man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 06:41 PM   #198
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
k-man, the market is ignoring the labor market nuclear winter we find ourselves in. Given how much we relay on consumer spending and the fact that the rest of the world is in the ****ter with us, today's valuations make no sense to me.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

- George Orwell

Ezekiel 23:20
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 09:09 PM   #199
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345 View Post
k-man, the market is ignoring the labor market nuclear winter we find ourselves in. Given how much we relay on consumer spending and the fact that the rest of the world is in the ****ter with us, today's valuations make no sense to me.
Same. We're in this weird phase with the market, so very similar to the sub-prime/housing bubble shock....where we had that first leg down in the late fall of 2007. Between then and a full year later....sooooo many huge shocks occurred in the market, but it wasn't until October of 2008 when the SHTF. And even with that drop, it wasn't until after the election and into March of 2009 that we had the final "whoosh"...to the bottom.

This is just much worse than that. Think about it. Most Americans really didn't understand what happened to them in the Great Recession. But they did understand the fear after 9/11. This event combines the fear of a 9/11 event, and the Great Recession...but kind of in a dislocated way Many of us understand the gravity of this virus and, if we have the resources, will alter our behavior to avoid getting infected. 9/11 had much more of a patriotic feel to the aftermath. It was a...."I'm getting on that flight...and going to Disneyworld...." as a way of "fighting back". Now, many of us with resources...will just hunker down for awhile.

In our current situation, we have 30-40% of our population that believes that this whole ordeal is BS. I'm not judging those folks in the slightest. We all get to believe, what we believe. But we have politicized a Pandemic in our country. And so it almost doesn't matter how this virus behaves at this point in our society from an investing standpoint. From a public health standpoint...it's obviously devastating.

What matters is how our society behaves coming out of the "lockdown" phase of this. And while there is a large percentage of folks who just think we all need to go back to work....do the herd immunity thing....and come out the other side. There is another group that doesn't subscribe to that way of thinking at all.

Therein lies the problem with this whole mess....because we don't have a Federal response that will deploy a "Manhattan project" COVID testing roll-out, there's a big percentage of Americans who will simply not go about "business as usual". Not until we know for sure that we've tested negative, have immunity...etc. Until then, we're left to therapeutic meds (but not a cure) and a vaccine (which is also not guaranteed to completely wipe this thing out).

We just can't BS our way through a pandemic. And we're already way too late in understanding that. The fear is baked in.
k-man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2020, 07:32 AM   #200
Full time employment: Posting here.
BeachOrCity's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 875
Back to the original question......

No I do not.
BeachOrCity is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
$764,000,000,000...Will you get your cut this year? mickeyd FIRE and Money 16 02-12-2020 04:55 PM
Is Dow 13,000 - 15,000 on the horizon at the rate of this plunge? cyber888 FIRE and Money 74 12-28-2018 10:17 AM
$423,000,000,000.00 Howard Other topics 25 02-08-2006 03:59 PM
$2,000,000,000,000- Happy 55th mickeyd Other topics 12 12-28-2004 09:19 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:51 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.