Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 04-14-2020, 03:28 PM   #221
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
Quote:
Originally Posted by vipertom1970 View Post
nothing wrong with capital preservation but sell and try to get back in is always a losing game.
This far I am way ahead of buy and hold this year.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

- George Orwell

Ezekiel 23:20
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 04-14-2020, 03:48 PM   #222
Full time employment: Posting here.
atmsmshr's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: An island off the coast of Florida. (Ok - if you really need to know it's Vero Beach)
Posts: 627
Big and medium business survival mode has been something like:

- Pull the earnings forecast for next quarter and next year
- Draw down all available credit to raise cash
- Stop stock buybacks
- Employees 'work' from home
- Employee PPE for those working at location
- Furloughs and Layoffs
- Exec Pay cuts
- Mothball factories, airplanes, ships, oil rigs, hotels, amusement parks.
- Suspension of dividends
- Apply for government grants and loans
- Renegotiation of debt with banks
- Fight downgrades from ratings agencies
- Renegotiation of planned purchases with suppliers
- Renegotiation of leases / mortgages
- Plead with state governors to reopen asap
- Layoff everyone except skeleton crew
- Develop Public Safety plans to show how clean the business really is

Small businesses don't have as many levers to pull.

The stock market is shrugging all of this off. Irrational Exuberance?
__________________
DW and I are 59/59. FIRE'd August 2019. Non-cola pension available but will remain untouched until mid sixties to grow, max SS for DH at FRA or 70. Mega retiree health available. IRA rollover from 401k Jan 2020 for NUA treatment. LTCG next few years. AA 40% stocks, 7% cash and 53% Intermediate Treasury fund. Rising equity glidepath.
atmsmshr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-14-2020, 04:05 PM   #223
Recycles dryer sheets
Beststash's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 468
Quote:
Originally Posted by atmsmshr View Post
The stock market is shrugging all of this off. Irrational Exuberance?
I think so... but from recent history tells me ....."Don't fight the FED". Since they included "the market" in their mandate it goes against conventional wisdom.
Beststash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-14-2020, 06:14 PM   #224
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Ready's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Southern California
Posts: 3,944
I sold some equities today. I normally maintain 55% equities but I decided to trim it back a little to get closer to 50%. I don’t really understand what these market rallies are all about. Nobody has any idea what the recovery is going to look like. But it seems like it going to go very slowly so I don’t share in the market optimism right now.
Ready is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-14-2020, 06:46 PM   #225
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Reno
Posts: 1,181
I've been playing the bounce: went from 57% stocks Jan 1; decided to scrape off at least half of 2019 gains, so reduced to 53% in Jan, then the market went up; scraped off some more; reduced from 49% stock to 45% stock 3rd week of January, then saw the market take me down to 40% in March. Bought enough a day after the low (by accident) to raise to 43%, then saw the market take me up to 48% last Friday, so brought myself back down to 44%.
I'll ride this out for a while but will put more cash to work if I get down close to the 40% level.
Never thought I'd sit on 30% cash, but that's OK. I'm essentially even with where I was a year ago, which I would take anyday, but I'm not sure the V shaped recovery is the most likely outcome. I'll let the Fed take me up further before I scrape off some more. The volatility is probably going to snap our heads off; I think I was up 65K one day last week or the week before, which is reminiscent of 2008/9.

Online gig runs out next month, so I'm just trying to coast into full SS age in 4 years without losing an arm and a leg.
RobLJ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-14-2020, 07:05 PM   #226
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Markola's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Twin Cities
Posts: 3,282
Folks are debating whether the certain recovery will be U or V shaped. What if it goes WWWWWWWWWWWWWW for a long time?
Markola is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-14-2020, 07:20 PM   #227
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
USGrant1962's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 2,090
Quote:
Originally Posted by Markola View Post
Folks are debating whether the certain recovery will be U or V shaped. What if it goes WWWWWWWWWWWWWW for a long time?
That's a volatile, but flat market - not a bad long-term result of this mess.
__________________
FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged

"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
There is always a well-known solution to every human problem: neat, plausible, and wrong. - H.L. Mencken
USGrant1962 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-14-2020, 07:21 PM   #228
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 9,843
Another point of note.
Each of the last 2 bear markets had 3 drops and 2 partial recoveries before the final move upward.
So far, only one move down and one partial recovery.
Is it really possible "this time is different" due to Fed manipulation?
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2020, 07:29 AM   #229
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by vipertom1970 View Post
nothing wrong with capital preservation but sell and try to get back in is always a losing game.
Not necessarily. In 2007 we got out of the market in early November when the Dow was at 13,600, and sat on the sidelines until January of 2009 when we got back in at 7850. When we moved to a Treasury fund in November of 2007, never did we imagine that we'd be sitting on the sidelines for 14 months. And while we didn't get at the very top, we were pretty close, and the Dow bottomed around 6,600 in early March and then bounced back to the high 7,000 later that month. That was the whoosh to the bottom and the snap back. We missed a 42% drop in the market in our portfolio which was invested very aggressively at that time.

As I've said earlier, we were very aggressive through the end of 2019, but moved into VBIAX in January because we felt like the market was overvalued. We didn't want to be greedy. We saw an almost 30% return in 2019 alone, like many of you here likely did as well.

We followed the virus news very closely and grew increasingly concerned. Missed the top, but got out at 27,080 and moved into VMFXX. And we will stay on the sidelines again, for I fear, quite some time. But this is completely about capital preservation now for us.

My wife is in contact with many other service businesses and ICs trying to apply for PPP and expanded benefits for ICs through State unemployment. It's a joke...they're lightyears behind where those of us in the 21st century operate. This money is not getting to the people and businesses who need it fast enough. Not even close.

Our "bet" is that this is going to be a deep and long recession. Turn off CNBC....it's a game show right now, other than the big thinkers they typically have on before the market opens. This is a moment to read The Economist and The Financial Times. And everything I'm seeing there is that we are *in* for it. And the way that our markets are behaving here are completely devoid of any reality. Trading on a hope and a prayer at this point.

If we're wrong, and this whole pandemic event has been overblown, there has still been an incredible amount of destruction to the economy. And we have no idea just how much destruction has been done just yet. But if we're right, this market will not only re-test the lows, but go below those levels.

We just continue to ask ourselves, if the market was down 20% in late 2018 due to tariff concerns, Brexit concerns and Fed interest rate policy concerns....should it be trading *just* 20% down now? With everything that has happened and with a sea of uncertainty ahead? With unemployment clearly over 25 million people already when you factor in the backlog of "pending" UI and PPP applications. Does everyone think those jobs are all going to be waiting for those people when we "open up" the USA again? Are you kidding me?

Anyway, in no set of circumstances does that make any sense to us. Even with the stimulus that is being thrown at the problem, it's not enough to offset the capital destruction that has already happened. And oh....the whole rest of the world is worse off than we are. And we kind of do business with them too.

Again, if we're wrong, and we're all back to work soon, that would be great. And unemployment numbers drop like a rock as everyone goes back to those re-opened businesses that hired them, jobs at the ready....unemployment back down to 3.5%. If the ballparks and theme parks are full and the restaurants are packed due to pent-up demand, then I'm wrong. If planes are flying as full as they used to be and cruise ships are heading out packed to the gills like before...then I was wrong, and the economy will soar back to life and we'll have that "V" recovery that this market is clearly betting on.

We'll know in 2-3 months and see how we're doing with our testing efforts. And we'll see how the consumer behaves. If things start looking really good, then we'll happily jump back into the market into VBIAX, when it feels like it's trading on reality and not on what appears to me right now to be a fantasy.
k-man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2020, 07:55 AM   #230
Full time employment: Posting here.
BeachOrCity's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 875
Quote:
Originally Posted by vipertom1970 View Post
nothing wrong with capital preservation but sell and try to get back in is always a losing game.
Two words to avoid: "always" and "never". When using them one usually ends up being wrong at some point!

Quote:
Originally Posted by k-man View Post

We just continue to ask ourselves, if the market was down 20% in late 2018 due to tariff concerns, Brexit concerns and Fed interest rate policy concerns....should it be trading *just* 20% down now? With everything that has happened and with a sea of uncertainty ahead? With unemployment clearly over 25 million people already when you factor in the backlog of "pending" UI and PPP applications. Does everyone think those jobs are all going to be waiting for those people when we "open up" the USA again? Are you kidding me?

Anyway, in no set of circumstances does that make any sense to us. Even with the stimulus that is being thrown at the problem, it's not enough to offset the capital destruction that has already happened. And oh....the whole rest of the world is worse off than we are. And we kind of do business with them too.
This matches my sentiment. My only caution is the old truism "Don't fight the fed". But I just don't see how the fed can replace the bulk of the entire economy for the likely >1 year duration of this whole thing.
BeachOrCity is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2020, 07:56 AM   #231
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Land of Florida Man
Posts: 37,400
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeachOrCity View Post
Two words to avoid: "always" and "never". When using them one usually ends up being wrong at some point!
Im always very careful to never use those words.
MichaelB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2020, 08:27 AM   #232
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: SoCal
Posts: 352
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeachOrCity View Post
Two words to avoid: "always" and "never". When using them one usually ends up being wrong at some point!



This matches my sentiment. My only caution is the old truism "Don't fight the fed". But I just don't see how the fed can replace the bulk of the entire economy for the likely >1 year duration of this whole thing.
I got 3.2M in the market and have not loss one $1 dollar yet since 1995 and still up over 350% so I NEVER worry about the markets looking at 10-15 years out and ALWAYS have faith in the US Economy, our technology, our science and our ingenuity. Study already shown there are more money is lost waiting for corrections or bottom than in them.
targatom2019 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2020, 08:32 AM   #233
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 509
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeachOrCity View Post
But I just don't see how the fed can replace the bulk of the entire economy for the likely >1 year duration of this whole thing.
The printing press is On again. The question is for how long before the US$ will lose the confidence in it.
VFK57 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2020, 08:45 AM   #234
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 436
Quote:
The printing press is On again. The question is for how long before the US$ will lose the confidence in it.
And do what? Start using the Yuan or the Euro or bitcoins as the defacto currency?
Toocold is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2020, 08:56 AM   #235
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 509
Quote:
Originally Posted by Toocold View Post
And do what? Start using the Yuan or the Euro or bitcoins as the defacto currency?
Surely Zimbabwe could not print out their way from economic chaos.
VFK57 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2020, 09:02 AM   #236
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by VFK57 View Post
The printing press is On again. The question is for how long before the US$ will lose the confidence in it.
This is a concern of mine. There's an opinion piece on Bloomberg about this today. Title: "Money is Losing its Meaning."

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...e?srnd=premium
k-man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2020, 09:07 AM   #237
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 32,251
+1 The Fed seems to me to be pushing its mandate to the edge of the envelope. I'm not totally certain that they have the authority to do some of the things that they are doing.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.

Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2020, 09:18 AM   #238
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 412
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
Im always very careful to never use those words.
I just spit my coffee out.
11522914 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2020, 09:20 AM   #239
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
OldShooter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 8,727
Quote:
Originally Posted by Toocold View Post
And do what? ...
In TIPS we trust, supplemented by 50% of our equity in non-US stocks. In a significant devaluation of the dollar all equities will have a wild ride, but when the dust settles non-US equities will be the winners.
OldShooter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2020, 10:08 AM   #240
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Badger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 2,642
Quote:
Originally Posted by vipertom1970 View Post
"...I NEVER worry about the markets looking at 10-15 years out and ALWAYS have faith in the US Economy, our technology, our science and our ingenuity..."
There is a fly in your ointment and it is the irrational behavior of most people.


Cheers!
Badger is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
$764,000,000,000...Will you get your cut this year? mickeyd FIRE and Money 16 02-12-2020 04:55 PM
Is Dow 13,000 - 15,000 on the horizon at the rate of this plunge? cyber888 FIRE and Money 74 12-28-2018 10:17 AM
$423,000,000,000.00 Howard Other topics 25 02-08-2006 03:59 PM
$2,000,000,000,000- Happy 55th mickeyd Other topics 12 12-28-2004 09:19 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:49 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.