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Old 04-18-2020, 10:37 AM   #321
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LOL, use HELOC to buy equities
Check your glasses. He said bonds and preferreds, not equities:

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...I even borrowed money on a HELOC to buy bonds and preferreds I could tell were money good and trading at double digit yields. ...
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Old 04-18-2020, 10:42 AM   #322
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I am still up over 350% since 1995 even with the 30% drop March 23rd. I already bought close to 580K when the DOW was dropping from 24,000-18,500 and currently break even YTD. You need to focus on long term, ignore the noises and control your emotion because we invest based on having the best economy, best technology, best science and human ingenuity or else why even invest at all and just stay on cash.
WADR, you probably need to check your numbers because up over 350% since 1995 isn't all that impressive for 100% equities.

The S&P 500, with dividends reinvested, is up 792% since 1995 and is up 455% without dividends reinvested.
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Old 04-18-2020, 10:51 AM   #323
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WADR, you probably need to check your numbers because up over 350% since 1995 isn't all that impressive for 100% equities.

The S&P 500, with dividends reinvested, is up 792% since 1995 and is up 455% without dividends reinvested.
I DCA over the last 25 years, I think you based on 1 lump sum amount and I remember I started out with just $2,000 in 1995. Might not be impressive to you but I am pretty happy to build a NW of 3.2M in equities and 3.4M in real estate based on average salary of 87K per year last 25 years is not bad either don't you think. One thing for sure is I did fold and run for the hills based on short term noises.
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Old 04-18-2020, 11:11 AM   #324
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Check your glasses. He said bonds and preferreds, not equities:
does not matter, using HELOC to buy bonds is still not a wise investment strategy and it's a stupid way to take risk.
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Old 04-18-2020, 11:17 AM   #325
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The market is going up fast because it’s wishing for a miracle and hoping that this all suddenly goes away magically.


+1. Stocks are still historically expensive and the odds for a reversion to mean, or at least probing the vicinity of it, seem a lot higher than the odds of staying at current prices for the next “while,” unless we’ve all turned into riverboat gamblers and high CAPE 10 ratios don’t matter anymore.

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Old 04-18-2020, 11:20 AM   #326
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does not matter, using HELOC to buy bonds is still not a wise investment strategy and it's a stupid way to take risk.
I think this statement means it is safe to ignore anything else you have to say. Have a nice life.
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Old 04-18-2020, 11:20 AM   #327
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does not matter, using HELOC to buy bonds is still not a wise investment strategy and it's a stupid way to take risk.
So say you. I've got to know brewer quite well from his posts over the years and when it comes to investing he's pretty savvy and prudent, so while it was a calculated risk I suspect that it worked out for him quite well.
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Old 04-18-2020, 11:38 AM   #328
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I am still up over 350% since 1995 even with the 30% drop March 23rd. I already bought close to 580K when the DOW was dropping from 24,000-18,500 and currently break even YTD. You need to focus on long term, ignore the noises and control your emotion because we invest based on having the best economy, best technology, best science and human ingenuity or else why even invest at all and just stay on cash. Do you really think the markets will not hit new high 10 years from now ?
Well, if I go back to the beginning of time, I too have never lost money in the stock market. I took your quote to mean you've never sold any stock at a loss - ever.

As far as the answer to your question - yes, I think stocks are going to hit new highs in the next 10 years.

But, as I've stated before, you and I are in hugely different positions. I'm retired and counting on my retirement savings making up a large chunk of my retirement income. You've got $7 million, with more than half in real estate. You're playing the game to see how much you can possibly accumulate. I have to be more cautious. If the market craters and stays there for 5 years, I'm in trouble - you're probably fine. Ending up with the most money possible isn't my plan.

I really don't know why you can't understand other people's positions.
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Old 04-18-2020, 11:50 AM   #329
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Well, if I go back to the beginning of time, I too have never lost money in the stock market. I took your quote to mean you've never sold any stock at a loss - ever.

As far as the answer to your question - yes, I think stocks are going to hit new highs in the next 10 years.

But, as I've stated before, you and I are in hugely different positions. I'm retired and counting on my retirement savings making up a large chunk of my retirement income. You've got $7 million, with more than half in real estate. You're playing the game to see how much you can possibly accumulate. I have to be more cautious. If the market craters and stays there for 5 years, I'm in trouble - you're probably fine. Ending up with the most money possible isn't my plan.

I really don't know why you can't understand other people's positions.
No, based on previous threads, you and couple people in this thread are timing the market which is not a right way of investing and timing the market is a fool’s errand. Pick an AA you are comfortable with, stay there, rebalance and good luck with selling low and buy back at high because institution investors with billion dollars will eat your money up in no time, so IMO !!!!!!
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Old 04-18-2020, 02:12 PM   #330
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No, based on previous threads, you and couple people in this thread are timing the market which is not a right way of investing and timing the market is a fool’s errand.
Whatever. Bye.
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Old 04-18-2020, 02:45 PM   #331
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I did what many folks on this thread did who are retired or near retirement: sold equity gains to increase cash position to protect our futures.
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Old 04-18-2020, 03:40 PM   #332
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I think it came down to a view that the unprecedented suddeness of the decline suggested that there was a possibility that it might be different this time and I had no desire to see a lifetime of saving and investing be obliterated by a black swan event... especially since I have absolutely no desire or intent to go back to w*rk.
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Old 04-19-2020, 07:28 AM   #333
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I did what many folks on this thread did who are retired or near retirement: sold equity gains to increase cash position to protect our futures.
Agreed! Well put. Im retired, and sold stocks to protect my future.

At this moment in time, I don't have a lot of confidence in a quick recovery. I see trillions going into stocks/bonds, but our current bottleneck to restarting the economy seems to be testing, well testing, and a vaccine. And now testing has become a blame game.
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Old 04-19-2020, 10:57 PM   #334
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Yep. But I don't know for sure, and since I'm keeping a reasonable AA that I can live with, I don't really care.
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Old 04-20-2020, 01:10 PM   #335
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Yep. But I don't know for sure, and since I'm keeping a reasonable AA that I can live with, I don't really care.
I'm also keeping a reasonable AA but I certainly do care if the market goes back down.
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Old 04-20-2020, 01:54 PM   #336
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does not matter, using HELOC to buy bonds is still not a wise investment strategy and it's a stupid way to take risk.
Is it too much to ask of you to dial it down a bit?
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Old 04-20-2020, 02:41 PM   #337
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Nobody knows ... it's possible that it may revisit 18,000. But since most investors are already expecting that double bottom .. many will start to buy at 19,000-20,000. And it may not go that low - when some get ahead of others to load up.

Remember, the market going up may nothing to do with fundamentals. It's all about the Trillions that the Feds have to pump up the market. The Fed will support all big US companies. There's talk that the political powers won't let stocks go down and let China buy all strategic US companies for a dime a dozen.
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Old 04-20-2020, 03:12 PM   #338
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No, based on previous threads, you and couple people in this thread are timing the market which is not a right way of investing and timing the market is a fool’s errand. Pick an AA you are comfortable with, stay there, rebalance and good luck with selling low and buy back at high because institution investors with billion dollars will eat your money up in no time, so IMO !!!!!!
So what you're saying is



I don't even disagree with you, but damn!
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Old 04-20-2020, 03:41 PM   #339
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Is it too much to ask of you to dial it down a bit?
Yes, sorry to all, have a wonderful day and please stay safe.
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Old 04-21-2020, 05:22 AM   #340
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don't know where you got your news but Remdesivir looks very promising after the trial so yes, you can say good buy to DOW 18K and welcome DOW 30K by year end.
Not a chance to see 30,000 again this year! But that is why their is a market. When one buys, one sells, and both think they are right. So you are the buyer and I am the seller.
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