Do you think Dow 18,000 was the bottom?

vchan2177 said:
I agree with the PE ratio being up too high so the market is over valued.

Why is there a market rally in a pandemic? That does not make sense. But wait. I have a saying: If it does not make sense, then it's politics.

We all know who is in power now. We all know that the Fed is semi-independent. We all know that the Treasury Department is not. I like to speculate on whether there is a connection between the market rally and the people currently in power.

Too many people are focused on the opening up of the economy in June and July. Not enough attention is being focused on the election in October and November. If my speculation is true, then the stock market may potentially crash again when we get near or after the actual election.
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Yes tend to agree with this too. The market definitely seems to be disconnected from the economy at this point and it is easy to speculate that cheap money, new money and the emphasis of the powers that be on supporting the market at seemingly any cost are the drivers. OTH it may be that many see the market as the only game in town at this point. I know nothing but am not going to be surprised to see the market below 18k again but it may take a year or two or more or never... It is just hard to imagine that we aren't going to see a sustained recession given the hits that so many parts of the economy are taking and the effects of reduced incomes and uncertainty among consumers.
 
I figured the market was heading up because a bunch of people believed that the economy was going to be restarted in a matter of a few weeks as states lifted isolation orders. I think there'll be another dip when that doesn't work out so well, but we'll see.

You can argue that the P/E was too high before coronavirus, but it's pretty meaningless right now, as it was when climbing out of 2008 when current earnings are well below normal. Although as a buy-and-hold-ish investor I don't really care about P/E, I just stay invested.
 
This interview with Dr Hunt illustrates the disconnect between the economy and markets better than anything else I have read recently. He covers the potential for negative interest rates, inflation due to all the accommodation, MMT and a whole lot more.
Note - this is a transcript and contains a few errors than can easily be read through.




https://www.macrovoices.com/podcast...ough-deflation-toward-eventual-hyperinflation
 
I'm betting on the 18,000 not being the bottom, in hindsight I should have set up to buy in when I sold off in early February. I'm still ahead of the S&P 500 by 9% and about even with a blended portfolio at this point. I did miss a huge, in my mind temporary, buying opportunity that would have set me up for a 25% gain YTD. But it is the year of hindsight... 2020
 
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Siestatime said:
I think the projection outlined by Goldman Sachs yesterday is realistic. Although this article doesn’t mention it, they’ve also lowered their EOY S&P projection from 3,400 to 3,000.


https://markets.businessinsider.com...-more-selling-goldman-sachs-2020-5-1029188273
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It is interesting. They are also consistently changing their projections, which of course might sound logical, but then how often are they correct in the end on any long dated projections?
3400 to 3000 is a whole years typical stock market return.
 
I agree with the risks that they identify...
1. Growing infection rates outside New York
2. A lengthy reboot
3. Swelling loan-loss protections
4. Slashed dividends
5. The 2020 election
6. International tensions
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I just think that the recovery will take much longer than they do... IMO years rather than months.
 
2009 - 2020 was already the largest expansion ever, with sky high asset prices. I think most investors sensed something was going to break, which turned out to be a harsh pandemic. I know nothing but, to me, the weight of the evidence indicates it’s going to get worse before it gets better, and I assume that will include the stock market.
 
vchan2177 said:
I like to speculate on whether there is a connection between the market rally and the people currently in power.

Too many people are focused on the opening up of the economy in June and July. Not enough attention is being focused on the election in October and November. If my speculation is true, then the stock market may potentially crash again when we get near or after the actual election.
Click to expand...

I do not think there is any speculation involved, just sound thinking. I am with you on the November election as being the real concern, however, the efforts leading up to that will also cause extraordinary volatility.
 
vipertom1970 said:
very possible now !!!!!
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Then why don't you just come right out and say/post the magic word? We'll then see how quickly the recent gains will be given back.

If I say/post the magic word, it will have no effect as my AA is 2/98, and I really could not care.

However, a raging bull saying/posting the magic word, well, that will certainly do the trick.
 
njhowie said:
Then why don't you just come right out and say/post the magic word? We'll then see how quickly the recent gains will be given back.

If I say/post the magic word, it will have no effect as my AA is 2/98, and I really could not care.

However, a raging bull saying/posting the magic word, well, that will certainly do the trick.
Click to expand...

So that I am clear what is the magic word? After it is posted I will watch what happens lol:popcorn:
 
njhowie said:
It starts with a "W" and ends with a "e"
Click to expand...

I apologize NJ but my brain must be shot:blush:

The hint is not helping me.

You are an AA of 2/98, I am 12/88. Go ahead and tell me the magic word lol.
If the market drops I promise not to blame you.:)
 
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