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Old 04-02-2020, 06:15 PM   #21
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We aren’t bending the curve yet. Lots more bad news to come.
Every USA curve I've looked at seems to be bending starting about 4 to 6 days ago. Perhaps that is due to the prior weeks being artificially steep due to the ramp-up in testing. FWIW, you must look at logarithmic curves to have any idea of the progress. There are far too many linear plots around, which are meaningless in tracking progress.
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Old 04-02-2020, 06:15 PM   #22
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One can only hope.
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Old 04-02-2020, 06:22 PM   #23
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Every USA curve I've looked at seems to be bending starting about 4 to 6 days ago. Perhaps that is due to the prior weeks being artificially steep due to the ramp-up in testing. FWIW, you must look at logarithmic curves to have any idea of the progress. There are far too many linear plots around, which are meaningless in tracking progress.
Dr Birx (sp?) on the Task Force today said emphatically that we are not bending the curve. The curve below shows us perfectly tracking Italy.
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Old 04-02-2020, 06:26 PM   #24
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I expect a retest of the lows. We could break the lows.

Be ready. Make investing decisions with a long time horizon. They usually work out best.
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Old 04-02-2020, 06:51 PM   #25
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The most eminent doctors and scientists cannot tell us with any certainty what this wild virus will do. Thus, I do not see how anyone can predict what things that depend on the virus will do.
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Old 04-02-2020, 07:57 PM   #26
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What timeframe?

I don't know what the market will do but I expect more fear and uncertainty will make it go down. I don't think we have any idea how much fear will be generated as the death toll rises. Nor do I think the average person has the capacity to understand what the numbers indicate.

I sincerely hope I am wrong.
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Old 04-02-2020, 08:00 PM   #27
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What do you think?
Nope, I think 14,500 is more likely
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Old 04-02-2020, 08:40 PM   #28
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Everyone seems to be eagerly looking for the peak. That doesn't really mean squat. This stuff will still be loose and relaxing lockdowns will just result in more flare-ups. Watch for progress on vaccines.
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Old 04-02-2020, 08:48 PM   #29
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I forecast the stock market curve to be inversely proportional to the infection curve.
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Old 04-02-2020, 09:20 PM   #30
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Sadly, the worst is yet to come with a mounting death toll.
I think the bottom (stock market) will be at the top of the curve (Covid19 U.S death rate) in another few weeks according to everything i've seen.
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Old 04-03-2020, 02:29 AM   #31
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10 days? If that is your timeline, abandon all hope.
That's a comment on Italy, not the world. If they are on the other side of the peak, new infection rate should be ramping down quickly.

They peaked on March 21 at about 6500 new cases. Last few days have been about 4000-4500. 10 days from now it could be below 1000, which would suggest they have gotten the lid back on in Italy.
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Old 04-03-2020, 04:34 AM   #32
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I can say with absolute certainty that it may have been the bottom, or it may not.
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Old 04-03-2020, 07:12 AM   #33
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That's a comment on Italy, not the world. If they are on the other side of the peak, new infection rate should be ramping down quickly.

They peaked on March 21 at about 6500 new cases. Last few days have been about 4000-4500. 10 days from now it could be below 1000, which would suggest they have gotten the lid back on in Italy.
And then what? Let everyone roam around free? Can't do that until we have a vaccine in a year or so. Ramping down new cases is effectively meaningless as far as the economy goes.
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Old 04-03-2020, 08:11 AM   #34
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All depends on how long the economy is shut down and how much of that shut down is priced in. I don't know the answer to either, but I suspect we're going to be in shutdown mode well into June. I don't see things opening up May 1st.
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Old 04-03-2020, 08:13 AM   #35
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The question is, how much of this gloomy probable outlook priced into the market now?
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Old 04-03-2020, 08:46 AM   #36
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I am waiting to see what the clinical trial of hydrochlorquine/Z Pack therapeutic treatment going on in NYC shows. If that is a silver bullet, market will rise.
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Old 04-03-2020, 09:33 AM   #37
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The other words of wisdom "the market has already priced it in" go out the window in this environment, although I am not sure that was ever true.
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Old 04-03-2020, 10:26 AM   #38
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The other words of wisdom "the market has already priced it in" go out the window in this environment, although I am not sure that was ever true.
I disagree. Some estimate of the future effects of the virus are priced in. How accurate those estimates are will determine the direction of the market.

The Dow was down to near 18,000 on March 23. In the days since then, there infection rate in the US has and continues to increase, job loss numbers are out and it is known they will get worse, yet the Dow is up something like 15% since then. How could that possibly be? Could it be that the virus effects were priced into the market on March 23, perhaps too much? Nobody has a crystal ball to foretell the future, but investors do try.
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Old 04-03-2020, 10:37 AM   #39
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At the moment I don't really care which way it goes. If my wife and I don't survive Covid-19 it won't make any difference to me.


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Old 04-03-2020, 10:54 AM   #40
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At the moment I don't really care which way it goes. If my wife and I don't survive Covid-19 it won't make any difference to me.
Well, that's true for all of us, but I figure my odds are low to catch the virus, and even lower to die from it, so I still monitor my investments in the likely case I stay around.
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