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Old 04-03-2020, 11:09 AM   #41
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Well, that's true for all of us, but I figure my odds are low to catch the virus, and even lower to die from it, so I still monitor my investments in the likely case I stay around.

Yes. I'm more worried about the worst case scenario: What if I keep living? Then what will I do?
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Old 04-03-2020, 11:19 AM   #42
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I don't think the Fed can backstop the trickle down affect of the millions of people not paying bills/debts. My bet, this black swan event takes out more than we can imagine.
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Old 04-03-2020, 02:15 PM   #43
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I am waiting to see what the clinical trial of hydrochlorquine/Z Pack therapeutic treatment going on in NYC shows. If that is a silver bullet, market will rise.
Saw this yesterday...

"Dr. Stephen Smith on effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine: 'I think this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic'"

I hope it's true!
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Old 04-03-2020, 02:41 PM   #44
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Saw this yesterday...

"Dr. Stephen Smith on effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine: 'I think this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic'"

I hope it's true!
Interesting. Dr Oskui is my cardiologist.
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Old 04-03-2020, 02:42 PM   #45
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Saw this yesterday...

"Dr. Stephen Smith on effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine: 'I think this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic'"

I hope it's true!

Wrong. It might be the beginning of the end of many or most deaths from it but that's all.
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Old 04-03-2020, 04:35 PM   #46
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12-15k range is my guess for the low. There will NOT be a quick turn around...too much damage will be done with thousands of businesses going under or declaring bankruptcy.
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Old 04-03-2020, 04:50 PM   #47
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Frankly, my concerns include none of us getting this plague, trying to scrounge groceries, worrying a less well prepared family and friends, and wondering when the crime wave will pick up. Where the market bottoms is of interest and I will certainly star buying when I think we are there, but I am guessing I will know it when some of these concerns are are alleviated.
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Old 04-03-2020, 05:10 PM   #48
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Frankly, my concerns include none of us getting this plague, trying to scrounge groceries, worrying a less well prepared family and friends, and wondering when the crime wave will pick up. Where the market bottoms is of interest and I will certainly star buying when I think we are there, but I am guessing I will know it when some of these concerns are are alleviated.
Could you elaborate on your crime wave statement? I was always wondering would this society ever get to a point of wide scale lawlessness.
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Old 04-03-2020, 05:15 PM   #49
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Could you elaborate on your crime wave statement? I was always wondering would this society ever get to a point of wide scale lawlessness.
Let's see:

- Large and increasing number of unemployed? Check.
- Police forces losing more and more officers to the virus/sick-outs? Check.
- General attitude of willingness to ignore theft and similar offences in large cities? Check
- Lots of people (including the bad ones) with too much time on their hands? Check.

Looks like we have all the ingredients for a crime spike.
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Old 04-03-2020, 05:38 PM   #50
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Let's see:

- Large and increasing number of unemployed? Check.
- Police forces losing more and more officers to the virus/sick-outs? Check.
- General attitude of willingness to ignore theft and similar offences in large cities? Check
- Lots of people (including the bad ones) with too much time on their hands? Check.

Looks like we have all the ingredients for a crime spike.

Hardly catastrophic. It's like what happens every year. It's called Summer.
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Old 04-03-2020, 05:42 PM   #51
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Hardly catastrophic. It's like what happens every year. It's called Summer.
Unemployment spikes over 20% every summer where you live? Wow.
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Old 04-03-2020, 05:49 PM   #52
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Unemployment spikes over 20% every summer where you live? Wow.

Petty fogging. That is but one sub-detail. Meaningless to the thoughts expressed but it did provide a I suppose a needed deflection. I'm "wow" that you'd even use it in this context.
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Old 04-03-2020, 05:49 PM   #53
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Let's see:

- Large and increasing number of unemployed? Check.
- Police forces losing more and more officers to the virus/sick-outs? Check.
- General attitude of willingness to ignore theft and similar offences in large cities? Check
- Lots of people (including the bad ones) with too much time on their hands? Check.

Looks like we have all the ingredients for a crime spike.
Add to this municipalities releasing prisoners early to uncrowd jails as Houston is thinking of doing. Boy, that makes good sense!
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Old 04-03-2020, 05:51 PM   #54
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Petty fogging. That is but one sub-detail. Meaningless to the thoughts expressed but it did provide a I suppose a needed deflection. I'm "wow" that you'd even use it in this context.
You know, you are right. There will not be a shred of extra crime in the next 2 years. You just make so much sense.
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Old 04-03-2020, 05:51 PM   #55
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Everyone seems to be eagerly looking for the peak. That doesn't really mean squat. This stuff will still be loose and relaxing lockdowns will just result in more flare-ups. Watch for progress on vaccines.
I agree. And we are a year plus out from a vaccine..unless a miracle happens. Until then, there are 2nd and 3rd waves of this virus. Who is going to feel safe goin back to what was once our normal lives?
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Old 04-03-2020, 05:52 PM   #56
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Let's see:

- Large and increasing number of unemployed? Check.
- Police forces losing more and more officers to the virus/sick-outs? Check.
- General attitude of willingness to ignore theft and similar offences in large cities? Check
- Lots of people (including the bad ones) with too much time on their hands? Check.

Looks like we have all the ingredients for a crime spike.
Hopefully it would not come to it but if it is, I will keep my shot gun loaded and close by. I am looking with horror on what happens in New York and other states. How come that we are not ready and looking for lungs ventilators in China and Russia? Did not our scientists warned for years that it is a matter of time when deadly pandemic will strike?
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Old 04-03-2020, 06:09 PM   #57
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What do you think?

Nope. But Mr. Market doesn't care what I think.
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Old 04-03-2020, 06:17 PM   #58
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I think no way as the unemployment impact hasn't hit yet. I see the full extent of that is unknown until the Covid-19 thing is corralled.
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Old 04-03-2020, 06:26 PM   #59
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Whenever the markets hit new highs, I look at my AA and determine its value should the markets fall lost 50-60%. So I am mentally (and hopefully financially) prepared for a potential low in the 12000-15000 range. but your guess is as good as mine.
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Old 04-03-2020, 07:58 PM   #60
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The economy was already in support by the highest level of corporate debt in history. The S&P500 had thehighest percentage of company ever that had not made any money net for 3 years - over 30% of the S&P500. These companies are supported by debt. In an effort to prevent collapse the government is spending at a record deficit projection and the Central Banks are planning on expanding the balance sheet by 4 times the rate of 2008-2010.

The fastest decline in history of 30% just occurred and the market is in a consolidation phase. The economy of the United States has been changed overnight. The airline industry, the hotel industry and the restaurant industry have been eliminated as an industry for 2020. I think upon reflection and listening to the posters on this forum you can feel the angst of the crowd while it is trying to maintain an optimistic note, but I can feel the overall worry of the crowd.

What I see is what Mike Tyson says, “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”
which Mike used to equate to “how much can you endure buddy?” Odds are this is going to be a historic bear market, I will take my chances with Treasury Bills for the time being since if I am wrong and the economy comes roaring back there is nothing to worry about, but if the move down is as historic as the early moves are indicating it will be, If the S&P500 falls to 1300 as I expect a nice first minimum down I will buy back at 40cents on the dollar my stock portfolio, leaving another 60 cents to purchase more if it falls below the 2009 low.VTI at 30 could be a possibility.

Anyone with a pension better hope I am totally off base as the security of pension payments will become a huge problem, most have never recovered from 2009 despite the greatest bull market of all time and there won’t be any government funding of pensions for several years after this revenue sucking economic event.
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