Do you think Dow 18,000 was the bottom?

[brewer12345]

+1

With the market down only about 20% from its top, it's hardly a bargain considering that it was overvalued then, and the economy is going to take a big hit with many industries in tatters.

Yep. Don't understand today's valuations even with all the stimulus.

 

[Rick0]

Yes, I have a good feeling about this..

 

[Lienlord]

When "a bottom is agreed on," will somebody kindly let me know?

Asking for a friend ....

I think I will be able to confidently tell you about a week after it happens!

 

[audreyh1]

I think I will be able to confidently tell you about a week after it happens!

A week? That’s pretty good!

 

[Markola]

No one can travel to Las Vegas right now but, no matter, people can still gamble with their portfolios instead!

 

[donheff]

Up 5% yesterday and the futures at +3% now. If you sold to cash do you get back in? Probably not because we could be facing a lot more downside. I can't see a good way to time things when you go all in either way. Seems to make more sense to pick an AA and stick with it or maybe play around in a range to see if you can make a good call. But maybe that's just my risk profile talking.

 

[Fermion]

This market is like War Games. The only solution is not to play.

 

[dvalley]

Question: With the markets being up the last couple of days if you're above your strike price by a little would you sell a small portion say 10-20% to lock in a small profit and buy back in later at a lower price? Since many believe the market will dip again as companies don't earn a profit, businesses close, unemployment goes much much higher.

 

[Spock]

Business cycle: stocks probably heading lower
"The Rona: stocks probably heading lower
Fed printing and blindly buying: stocks probably heading higher
And a new factor not normally on the radar, people looking for inflation harbors: stocks probably heading higher.

Time for the coin flip tie-breaker.

 

[NW-Bound]

Business cycle: stocks probably heading lower
"The Rona: stocks probably heading lower
Fed printing and blindly buying: stocks probably heading higher
And a new factor not normally on the radar, people looking for inflation harbors: stocks probably heading higher.

Time for the coin flip tie-breaker.

That's why I am 50% in. Heh heh heh...

 

[ER Eddie]

yeah I think so.

 

[pb4uski]

One interesting thing to me is how many companies have withdrawn earnings guidance and refused to provide any revised guidance.... it tells me that they are as uncertain of the way forward as we are.

It’s been a part of every business quarter: company executives report how much money their firm made over the last three months and then tell investors what the firm expects to do over the next three months and fiscal year. Indeed, firms did just that in January and February, during their last earnings calls.

But now, companies are telling investors to disregard all that. Company executives have said they can’t guide investors on revenues or profits, not only for the coming quarter but for the foreseeable future. Several airlines, hotels, and other travel-related companies made such announcements last week, and on Monday a major electronics retailer and a semiconductor company joined in. Experts predict that the practice of “withdrawing guidance,” will only increase over the coming weeks as companies begin the traditional first-quarter earnings report period. ...

https://www.kornferry.com/insights/articles/corporate-earnings-guidance-coronavirus

 

[aja8888]

This market is like War Games. The only solution is not to play.

Smartest advice now!

 

[brewer12345]

Business cycle: stocks probably heading lower
"The Rona: stocks probably heading lower
Fed printing and blindly buying: stocks probably heading higher
And a new factor not normally on the radar, people looking for inflation harbors: stocks probably heading higher.

Time for the coin flip tie-breaker.

The recession we are in is unlike any in modern history. Hard to understand what will happen and when. We have never seen the kind of unemployment that is currently the case. OK, were that high in the 30s, but find an adult who remembers it from personal experience. I will be awaiting better prices before I commit capital. Frankly, if today's rally had held and continued to a pop tomorrow, I was ready to start shorting.

 

[Ready]

I’m not ready to compare today’s environment to the Great Depression. The world looks very different today. We can do much more with technology that wasn’t remotely possible 90 years ago. And our medical science is vastly different.

I have no doubt we will lose a lot of lives and suffer economically but I do believe we will find a way to recover, just as we did in 2000 and 2008. But it may take years if we can’t flatten the curve and get at least some businesses going again fairly quickly.

 

[brewer12345]

I’m not ready to compare today’s environment to the Great Depression. The world looks very different today. We can do much more with technology that wasn’t remotely possible 90 years ago. And our medical science is vastly different.

I have no doubt we will lose a lot of lives and suffer economically but I do believe we will find a way to recover, just as we did in 2000 and 2008. But it may take years if we can’t flatten the curve and get at least some businesses going again fairly quickly.

Don't count on a "V" recovery with this one. I am optimistically hoping for a U.

 

[kjpliny]

I fear that the next leg down will be absolutely brutal. We'll be wishing for DJIA 18k at that point.

 

[Ready]

Don't count on a "V" recovery with this one. I am optimistically hoping for a U.

Agreed. While some businesses will be able to reopen, many will still be forced to stay closed until we either believe the virus has been eradicated or we find a vaccine or at least a treatment for those infected.

I think it will be a long time before massage therapists go back to work. And I’m not sure if we will see people dining inside restaurants any time soon. But I could see retail stores like Macy’s reopening with limits on how many people can be inside at once.

 

[pb4uski]

+2... I'm very skeptical of a V recovery.

 

[USGrant1962]

Agreed. While some businesses will be able to reopen, many will still be forced to stay closed until we either believe the virus has been eradicated or we find a vaccine or at least a treatment for those infected.

I think it will be a long time before massage therapists go back to work. And I’m not sure if we will see people dining inside restaurants any time soon. But I could see retail stores like Macy’s reopening with limits on how many people can be inside at once.

A big part of the economy that would be possible to reopen sooner is the white collar cubicle dweller community. Many of these guys are in 8x8 cubicles or actual offices. Social distancing by sitting in every third chair in a conference room, closing every other urinal, etc. is doable.

And perhaps companies will reverse the open floor plan nonsense.

Reopening financial companies, publishers, engineering companies, engineering departments of manufacturers, and other residents of generic office buildings would help a lot. They might operate a little less efficiently, but that's much better than not operating at all.

 

[brewer12345]

A big part of the economy that would be possible to reopen sooner is the white collar cubicle dweller community. Many of these guys are in 8x8 cubicles or actual offices. Social distancing by sitting in every third chair in a conference room, closing every other urinal, etc. is doable.

And perhaps companies will reverse the open floor plan nonsense.

Reopening financial companies, publishers, engineering companies, engineering departments of manufacturers, and other residents of generic office buildings would help a lot. They might operate a little less efficiently, but that's much better than not operating at all.

Assuming they have a revenue stream, I would guess that is the part of the economy least affected by all of this. Almost all of those people are working from home.

 

[2177V]

I do not believe 18,000 is the bottom because corporate earnings comes out quarterly. March 31 was a partial virus effect on corporate earnings. June 30 will be a complete virus effect. It will not be pretty when those numbers are published.

Also 50/50 portfolio managers has to re-balance since their original 50/50 portfolio is now 40/60. Re-balancing is necessary to ensure better recovery. For example: $1M equity/$1M bond portfolio becomes $700K equity/$1M bond after a 30% drop assuming bonds does not decline. If there is a 30% recovery and no re-balancing, then the portfolio becomes $910K equity/$1M bond. Hence, the 50/50 portfolio manager is behind $90K without re-balancing... even after a 100% market recovery. Re-balancing may contribute to a dead cat bounce.

 

[VFK57]

If we guessing when economy is going to reopen after pandemic, look at China Wuhan. Keep in mind that totalitarian regimes, like China communist party rulers, always have much stricter control over people, with harsh punishments for violating quarantine. The pandemic and lock down started in late November, the province was blocked and nobody was allowed to move out. Did we implement similar rules and when? Even if we did at best it is going to be 4 - 5 month. I think it is not going to happen till summer, possibly late summer.

 

[Born2Fish]

Assuming they have a revenue stream, I would guess that is the part of the economy least affected by all of this. Almost all of those people are working from home.

+1, I can personally vouch for that!

 

[JJpop]

It certainly seems like this is going to take quite awhile to sort out. I do not understand these market rallies when we see what is coming.On top of that, it will most likely return in the fall/winter and we will not yet have a vaccine or drug to cure it unless there is a miracle.