Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 04-09-2020, 09:55 AM   #161
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Midwest
Posts: 2,766
Quote:
This notion of pricing-in is as ephemeral

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toocold View Post
If that is the case, how do you account for the large drop in the stock market when the retrospective unemployment rate was still 3.4% and the number of deaths was still under 100 in mid march?

Not sure what you saying but it looks like your statement is corroborating what I was saying.
razztazz is online now   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 04-09-2020, 10:10 AM   #162
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
The market is now completely disconnected from reality. Looks more like a scratch off lottery ticket than anything else.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

- George Orwell

Ezekiel 23:20
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 10:22 AM   #163
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: SoCal
Posts: 352
FOMO time for many.
targatom2019 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 10:23 AM   #164
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 509
A fear of big inflation, triggered by the Feds QEs, push many investors back into the market and purchasing other assets.
VFK57 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 10:27 AM   #165
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
MRG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 10,700
Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345 View Post
The market is now completely disconnected from reality. Looks more like a scratch off lottery ticket than anything else.
That's exactly what I believe. I opened this thread to post those words. Market already seemed too hot then a needed correction followed by a pandemic. I don't know where the bottom is, nor can I predict how long till "normal" returns or even what normal means. I may use the bounce to augment my cash.
MRG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 10:31 AM   #166
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 49,036
Quote:
Originally Posted by MRG View Post
I may use the bounce to augment my cash.
I'm guessing a substantial number of investors are planning on doing the same. Expecting a big sell-off later today.
__________________
Numbers is hard

The key to understanding human behavior is realizing half the population is below average.
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 10:36 AM   #167
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
USGrant1962's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 2,090
Quote:
Originally Posted by VFK57 View Post
Adding huge additional Debt to already swollen Feds balance sheet of over $3 trillions means only one thing: there will be far greater inflation at some point.
The response to the financial crisis added $8T (or +80%) to the debt and we didn't get far greater inflation. Why would adding $3T (or +15%) do so now?
__________________
FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged

"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
There is always a well-known solution to every human problem: neat, plausible, and wrong. - H.L. Mencken
USGrant1962 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 10:44 AM   #168
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
OldShooter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 8,727
Quote:
Originally Posted by USGrant1962 View Post
The response to the financial crisis added $8T (or +80%) to the debt and we didn't get far greater inflation. Why would adding $3T (or +15%) do so now?
That bartender from Brooklyn, macroeconomic expert extraordinaire, says it's no problem.
OldShooter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 10:44 AM   #169
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
Quote:
Originally Posted by USGrant1962 View Post
The response to the financial crisis added $8T (or +80%) to the debt and we didn't get far greater inflation. Why would adding $3T (or +15%) do so now?
I am seeing estimates of a 20 percent deficit this year, which would be about 6 trillion. Then add in who knows how many trillion being printed. This is the carfentanil to the heroin of 08 09.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

- George Orwell

Ezekiel 23:20
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 11:30 AM   #170
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Location: Suburbs of Mpls
Posts: 272
This market rebound is good to see.

It's probably due to the benefits of the stimulus package via increased unemployment federal issued checks.

Another stimulus package for the next wave of unemployed will be needed to keep the market on it's upward rise.


More stimulus checks = more consumer spending = stronger banks = stronger businesses.
dd564 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 11:37 AM   #171
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 1,954
I am seeing predictions of 26% GDP contraction and a 36% decline for Corporate profits for the second quarter. Source Wall Street Journal. Problem is the longer we stay shut down, the worse this gets and the more the Fed and Government inject and asset buy.

Much damage has been done to the psych of American Citizens. If things reopen, how fast will they return to work or will they simply wait until their unemployment runs out. Isn't that paying out for 4 months? There is much to think about and consider.
sheehs1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 11:43 AM   #172
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,934
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
History says that agreement won't come until a few months after it happens - too late to be of much use to those hoping to "get in at the bottom."

But since this time is different, we may know the bottom immediately - especially if it is around 0.
Not to cross thread but wasn't there a fella named Angus Maddison who tabulated long term success/disappearance of markets in various countries. I can't remember where (W. Bernstein?) his name often popped up.

heh heh heh - I think this data is still kept current ? Wiki.
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 11:43 AM   #173
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
OldShooter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 8,727
Quote:
Originally Posted by sheehs1 View Post
I am seeing predictions of 26% GDP contraction and a 36% decline for Corporate profits for the second quarter. ...
From a source with a demonstrated history of successful economic predictions? I doubt it. That room is empty.
OldShooter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 11:49 AM   #174
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 9,842
Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345 View Post
The market is now completely disconnected from reality. Looks more like a scratch off lottery ticket than anything else.
I agree and you have a good rep on this site.
So (I don't remember), when there were 2 false starts of an upwards market in 2008 before finally settling to the lowest point, was the feeling the same as now?
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is offline   Reply With Quote
Harvesting Gains from Bottom or Locking in Losses?
Old 04-09-2020, 12:08 PM   #175
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Reno
Posts: 1,181
Harvesting Gains from Bottom or Locking in Losses?

About an hour ago, I sold about 35% of the bounce up from the bottom a couple weeks ago. I'm now sitting at about a 1.5% "loss" from this date last year, largely since in Jan and mid Feb I scraped about 60% of last year's gains to cash or short-term bonds.

It will be interesting to see if we go back down to test those "bottom levels" over the next few weeks (if so I'll put 1/2 of this additional cash to work to keep at the 40% stock level), or if the Fed/Congress actions will continue to move the market up. If it continues to recover, I'll probably sell 1/2 of those gains every 5% up.

This will put me a couple percent above my "lower band" of 40% for stock allocation. Normally, I would just watch, but my part-time online gig runs out in September, with 3.5 years until I qualify for full SS. At that point, I'll increase my stock allocation back up to the 50-55% range.

I suspect the market will continue to be hugely volatile, with large gaps up with news of Fed/Congress and NY hopefully plateauing, and large moves downward as the seriously ill/hospitalization numbers begin peaking in the South and MidWest. I'm hoping not for an "all-clear" in early May, since I suspect that will just set us up for another round of exponential infection increases, but we will see. The news that the Feds are closing down their testing I see as really bad news for how the US is "handling" the infection (in my view, ubiquitous testing and probably a serological test to identify recovered with immunity are going to be needed before much easing of the stay at home orders). The good news is that the current measures are working to control the spread to half tolerable rates (although this is unclear without ubiquitous tests, so we have to go on deaths). Basically, we don't know a lot.

I'm also skeptical of the rate of small business recovery and consumer demand due to unemployment, but I'm hoping I'm wrong on these two points.

I don't advocate others to do this, since I'm right now entering the high risk period of no income and before my and DW (who is younger) SS age and I view the risks of a continued plunge this year and next as the key sequence of return factor. At worst, I'll file a few years early for SS and we have a lot of slack--no travel this year, so that big part of the budget can go towards next year's expenses. We just finished replacing the floors downstairs, so hopefully the house spending is largely over (after the solar panels and EV car last year).
RobLJ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 12:33 PM   #176
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 1,954
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldShooter View Post
From a source with a demonstrated history of successful economic predictions? I doubt it. That room is empty.
They were spot on with their writings, predictions and journalism before, during and after the 2008/2009 Financial Crisis.

What is your source then?
sheehs1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 12:33 PM   #177
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 509
Quote:
Originally Posted by USGrant1962 View Post
The response to the financial crisis added $8T (or +80%) to the debt and we didn't get far greater inflation. Why would adding $3T (or +15%) do so now?
My reasoning, what may not be correct, is: If you have a pool of money (including cash and virtual/electronic) what is backed by the economy or GDP of every kind of services and goods produced and the pool of money is greatly increased at same time while goods and services remain same or shrank (in this case by pandemic) what do you think will happen with the cost of those available goods and services?
VFK57 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 12:33 PM   #178
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: SoCal
Posts: 352
nothing wrong to sell to store up for emergency but to sell and try to time the market to get back in is a fool's errand.
targatom2019 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 12:41 PM   #179
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,042
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobLJ View Post
About an hour ago, I sold about 35% of the bounce up from the bottom a couple weeks ago. I'm now sitting at about a 1.5% "loss" from this date last year, largely since in Jan and mid Feb I scraped about 60% of last year's gains to cash or short-term bonds.

It will be interesting to see if we go back down to test those "bottom levels" over the next few weeks (if so I'll put 1/2 of this additional cash to work to keep at the 40% stock level), or if the Fed/Congress actions will continue to move the market up. If it continues to recover, I'll probably sell 1/2 of those gains every 5% up.

This will put me a couple percent above my "lower band" of 40% for stock allocation. Normally, I would just watch, but my part-time online gig runs out in September, with 3.5 years until I qualify for full SS. At that point, I'll increase my stock allocation back up to the 50-55% range.

I suspect the market will continue to be hugely volatile, with large gaps up with news of Fed/Congress and NY hopefully plateauing, and large moves downward as the seriously ill/hospitalization numbers begin peaking in the South and MidWest. I'm hoping not for an "all-clear" in early May, since I suspect that will just set us up for another round of exponential infection increases, but we will see. The news that the Feds are closing down their testing I see as really bad news for how the US is "handling" the infection (in my view, ubiquitous testing and probably a serological test to identify recovered with immunity are going to be needed before much easing of the stay at home orders). The good news is that the current measures are working to control the spread to half tolerable rates (although this is unclear without ubiquitous tests, so we have to go on deaths). Basically, we don't know a lot.

I'm also skeptical of the rate of small business recovery and consumer demand due to unemployment, but I'm hoping I'm wrong on these two points.

I don't advocate others to do this, since I'm right now entering the high risk period of no income and before my and DW (who is younger) SS age and I view the risks of a continued plunge this year and next as the key sequence of return factor. At worst, I'll file a few years early for SS and we have a lot of slack--no travel this year, so that big part of the budget can go towards next year's expenses. We just finished replacing the floors downstairs, so hopefully the house spending is largely over (after the solar panels and EV car last year).
x2 on everything you said.

My AA had been 90/0/10 for a few years so I sold a little today to boost my cash allocation. This will incur a small LTCG tax which will negate any small gains on the purchases I made last month when the market first dropped lol. However, I'd feel better I have a little extra cash in case I lose my job etc.
dvalley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2020, 12:43 PM   #180
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 953
I can't figure out if I should sell the equities that I have, figuring that we are going to drop off a cliff when the reality of the economic damage kicks in -or- if I should jump back in with the rest of my holdings to re-establish my typical high equity AA because- you know, FOMO. Maybe I just need to get comfortable with one of these middle of the road asset allocations for awhile.
__________________
Well it's all right, we're heading to the end of the line...
Clone is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
$764,000,000,000...Will you get your cut this year? mickeyd FIRE and Money 16 02-12-2020 04:55 PM
Is Dow 13,000 - 15,000 on the horizon at the rate of this plunge? cyber888 FIRE and Money 74 12-28-2018 10:17 AM
$423,000,000,000.00 Howard Other topics 25 02-08-2006 03:59 PM
$2,000,000,000,000- Happy 55th mickeyd Other topics 12 12-28-2004 09:19 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:13 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.