Do you think Dow 18,000 was the bottom?

[aja8888]

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345 Adding to the murk is that I estimate that ppp translates to 8 weeks of pay for in excess of 30 million workers. Obviously a lot of these people would otherwise be employed, but we have ?? Million shadow unemployed who will be back on the street in 8 weeks when the free money runs out.

Businesses around here can't seem to hire anybody as they stores and eateries are going pretty much 50% to full blast.

A friend of mine owns several Burger Kings and a mexican restaurant and told me today that he can't get his employees who had to be laid off to come back. It's nuts.

[njhowie]

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Originally Posted by aja8888 A friend of mine owns several Burger Kings and a mexican restaurant and told me today that he can't get his employees who had to be laid off to come back. It's nuts.

Not nuts - perfectly expected and as Capitalism would have it.

Has your friend offered to raise wages to/above what employees are getting in unemployment benefits plus the additional $600/week, at least until the end of July?

[tdv2]

When the $600/ week runs out they will be back. It's absolutely amazing how much traffic is on the roads in the past week. Still getting take out food once or twice a week and my favorite restaurants....they tell me they are hanging in there...they are not talking about going under.

[Toocold]

Would most people agree that April and May were likely the bottom of the economic cycle of the shock (both the virus and oil) if the unemployment rate was truly closer to 16%? This doesn't mean there aren't many boogeymen out there, such as China, protests, mutation of the virus, hyperinflation, geopolitics, that can still negatively impact the market.

[Dtail]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toocold Would most people agree that April and May were likely the bottom of the economic cycle of the shock (both the virus and oil) if the unemployment rate was truly closer to 16%? This doesn't mean there aren't many boogeymen out there, such as China, protests, mutation of the virus, hyperinflation, geopolitics, that can still negatively impact the market.

I would agree from an unemployment rate %, but not sure from a total picture yet.

[njhowie]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toocold Would most people agree that April and May were likely the bottom of the economic cycle of the shock (both the virus and oil) if the unemployment rate was truly closer to 16%? This doesn't mean there aren't many boogeymen out there, such as China, protests, mutation of the virus, hyperinflation, geopolitics, that can still negatively impact the market.

Not even close.

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toocold Would most people agree that April and May were likely the bottom of the economic cycle of the shock (both the virus and oil) if the unemployment rate was truly closer to 16%? This doesn't mean there aren't many boogeymen out there, such as China, protests, mutation of the virus, hyperinflation, geopolitics, that can still negatively impact the market.

I would guess no. A lot of federal bailout money will be gone in another 6 weeks or so with no clear path to more. That will start to make it clear how bad things really are. We also have many large bankruptcies unfolding, which can be chaotic. Also waiting to see if we have a second wave (guessing highly likely), and whether there is a resolution to the health crisis the virus represents. I think an awful lot of people are deluding themselves into thinking this is all resolved.

[VFK57]

It looks like Market acts on wishful thinking while the pandemic is far from over.

[UnrealizedPotential]

Market acts on wishful thinking? Not quite. I think it's somewhat true, but there are some things to consider. First is that some of that doom and gloom has already been priced in. Not all of it for sure, because some of that is unknown. How much is priced in? Who knows? But businesses are opening back up , so that is a good thing.
Second point is that the Fed has put a lot, a lot of money into the system to keep it from crumbling. That must have served as some kind of buoy to stock prices. Third is that the market seems to act on its own and sometimes you can make sense out of what happens by the news , but often times you can't.
So where do we go from here? I don't pretend to know. But it seems to me the market always seems to do what the masses least expect it to do.

[Tiger8693]

Quote:

Originally Posted by njhowie Not nuts - perfectly expected and as Capitalism would have it. Has your friend offered to raise wages to/above what employees are getting in unemployment benefits plus the additional $600/week, at least until the end of July?

You have to be joking. Are you ready to pay 30%-50% more for all of your products? The business has already been put out of business involuntarily... One thing I would suggest for the friend is to contact the DEW in his area and report that he has offered employment to those individuals which may stop the UE benefits which were meant only during the period of UE, not for the rest of their working career.

They will be back when the adder runs out, and if they are not smart about it, they will be left without a chair when the music stops. The adder (to the level that it was) was ridiculous, but the system would not provide for a way for the adder to be adjusted per each person to only make them whole to previous wages.

[JustVisitingThisPlanet]

Given last week's jobs data was 'misrepresented', won't be surprising if market turns down again next week. The economy still sucks afterall and the impact hasn't been fully realized yet.

[Dtail]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tiger8693 You have to be joking. Are you ready to pay 30%-50% more for all of your products? The business has already been put out of business involuntarily... One thing I would suggest for the friend is to contact the DEW in his area and report that he has offered employment to those individuals which may stop the UE benefits which were meant only during the period of UE, not for the rest of their working career. They will be back when the adder runs out, and if they are not smart about it, they will be left without a chair when the music stops. The adder (to the level that it was) was ridiculous, but the system would not provide for a way for the adder to be adjusted per each person to only make them whole to previous wages.

NJHowie was being theoretical/rhetorical of course. No business would match this $600 extra payment.
Yes the real problem is having workers earn more when not working than when they were working.
I agree that the system was not sophisticated enough for payment limits, plus the timeliness needed for the payments.
Yes, they could be left with no job in the end, but isn't this a statement of some kind in how some folks are willing to play this job roulette?

[njhowie]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tiger8693 You have to be joking. Are you ready to pay 30%-50% more for all of your products? The business has already been put out of business involuntarily... One thing I would suggest for the friend is to contact the DEW in his area and report that he has offered employment to those individuals which may stop the UE benefits which were meant only during the period of UE, not for the rest of their working career. They will be back when the adder runs out, and if they are not smart about it, they will be left without a chair when the music stops. The adder (to the level that it was) was ridiculous, but the system would not provide for a way for the adder to be adjusted per each person to only make them whole to previous wages.

Not joking at all, as we went back and forth on this previously. If anything, you might be the one out of touch with the way most of the business world and employers operate these days. You believe that all employers are doing right by employees, employees should be gracious, and that is simply not the case. Most employers take advantage of employees at every turn. Wages have not kept up, benefits have been reduced and eliminated, pensions rarely exist. At the same time, more is expected of employees. Most white collar employers want to be able to call/contact employees 24x7, they are made to feel guilty taking earned vacation and lawful paid time off. Many employers currently receiving the PPP loans are looking how they can keep employees just long enough to meet requirements for not having to pay it back. Then you have the megacorps looking at this as an opportunity to trim their ranks, figuring that they can operate with less headcount, reduce expenses, increase profits. Again, the view of the ruling class employer is that the employee is nothing more than an expendable/replaceable/interchangeable body that will be cut the moment it is advantageous for the employer to do so.

You've also already posted your suggestion about reporting employees who turn down employment. And I will again suggest that no employee go back to work minimally until the adder ends, and if justification is needed, claim that employer is not sufficiently protecting employees. In my view, if the employer is not testing all employees at the beginning of every shift with the ability to have immediate results, then whatever they have implemented is not sufficient. Simply taking temperature is almost useless for determining if someone is infected. Similar with installing a few hand sanitizers and mandating washing hands periodically - insufficient.

Sure, if employee does not return to work immediately when offered he/she risks not having a job to go back to, but, that is the way things work in a Capitalist free-market economy - everyone knows this. No job is guaranteed, yet, employers think that they can lay off an entire work force one day and then have them at their beckon call to return when they want them to.

The adder was not ridiculous in the context that the government shut down the economy. They forced businesses to close and effectively made it impossible for employees to work, taking away their income. There was no ability to get a new job in the interim. A Capitalist free market economy does not do that. The alternative to the adder would be an almost immediate collapse of the economy and financial markets...which is still very possible depending how things play out.

You seem very pro-business, and that's fine. I am pro-employee and will advocate on their behalf encouraging they do everything possible to get as much money as they can through this unprecedented period of history. If the government is going to shower corporations with tens of trillions of dollars, there's no reason why individuals shouldn't be getting some number of trillions just the same. The government already gave the corporations a few trillion in tax breaks the past few years. They spent it all and much more not on enhancing their businesses or to benefit employees, but repurchasing their own shares at inflated prices - to further enrich their management. If employers are pressed and can't operate because of lack of employees, then raise the wages to get employees to return. Match what the employee is getting by not working. If you are unable to, then that's the employer's problem, not the employee who the employer laid off as it was convenient and has not been paying. If you have to raise prices 30% to 50% to do it, then go ahead - if it's a competitive price for the product/service, then consumers will pay it. If consumers won't pay it, then that's the employers problem - you cannot force folks to work for an uncompetitive wage. You have millions of unemployed workers today, surely you should be able to find some willing to work for the wages being offered. You say the prior employees know the business and had specific skills? Then pay them appropriately.

Not debating any further. We have differing views and neither will convince the other of their view.

[aja8888]

Not to beat a dead horse, so to say, but my friend with the 6 BK's and one Tex/Mex location has already started hiring replacements (he has about 100 employees over the 6 locations). He's OK with that, and needs to run the shops. And raising prices to offset higher wages? At the BK locations, his retail prices are dictated by the parent company in Brazil (3G Capital) and not changed arbitrarily.

The Tex/Mex location is his own (non-franchised) and to stay competitive, his prices are "market".

[Tiger8693]

Quote:

Originally Posted by njhowie Not debating any further. We have differing views and neither will convince the other of their view.

I agree 100%, and while I disagree, you are obviously entitled to that opinion. Your line of thinking is from an "idealistic one" vs "pragmatic one", which is what my 30+ years of business experience has given me, and it ignores that someone is paying for all of this. Good luck with that view and hope you don't encourage people to do something that will have them unemployed with zero income in the future.

[lesjrp]

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Originally Posted by RetireAge50 Whatever dude. I hope you are not making your investment decisions based on these sources.

THIS x 10,

Once you set your AA, you either have faith that this country can get whatever done or you are timing the market.

[lalanian6]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toocold Would most people agree that April and May were likely the bottom of the economic cycle of the shock (both the virus and oil) if the unemployment rate was truly closer to 16%? This doesn't mean there aren't many boogeymen out there, such as China, protests, mutation of the virus, hyperinflation, geopolitics, that can still negatively impact the market.

This will not be the popular opinion here, but I would agree April and May were the bottom of the economic cycle...March was the bottom of the 'covid 19' market bottom.


The testing has consistently shown that multitudes of people have been exposed, have had minor symptoms, or were simply asymptomatic. The fatality/mortality rate has shrunken by so much (due to the denominator increasing) over the past month, that the current projection is similar to the fatality rate of the flu. If/when there is a 'second wave', it likely won't even show up on the radar. The more tests performed, the better the survival rate is proving to be.

[Chuckanut]

Quote:

Originally Posted by njhowie The adder was not ridiculous in the context that the government shut down the economy. They forced businesses to close and effectively made it impossible for employees to work, taking away their income. There was no ability to get a new job in the interim. A Capitalist free market economy does not do that. The alternative to the adder would be an almost immediate collapse of the economy and financial markets...which is still very possible depending how things play out.

+1

I have read about how Germany survived the crash of 2008 and one of the things it did was make sure that the unemployed people were not thrust into a financial death spiral. That not only helped those who lost their jobs, but also those who provided good and services to them. Apparently, the financial 'safety net' already in place did its job. So goes one way of thinking. YMMV.

We need to keep in mind that people did not lose their jobs and businesses did not shut down because of poor decisions made by labor and/or owners. It was caused by government fiat - You will close your business NOW OR ELSE! We can debate whether or not this was a good idea, and time will provided provide more clues to help make that decision.

Now the same government leaders have looked at what this economic calamity is doing to tax revenues and, Surprise! they realize their political empire might be hurt also. It also doesn't help the lock-down case that we are seeing a rise in non-CV19 threats to our health. (Childhood vaccinations down 30% in my state.) So, I expect the opening to continue even if they have to lock up restrict people like me (older, at risk folks) so the less at risk can work.

FWIW, my state's four phase plan calls for me to highly restrict my life outside my home until the last phase. Lucky me. But, I will do it willingly so my kids can get get back to work and the grands can get back to school. And, our leaders need to make sure they get it right, and not waste this huge sacrifice that many of the citizens have made.

[timo2]

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Originally Posted by Chuckanut +1 We need to keep in mind that people did not lose their jobs and businesses did not shut down because of poor decisions made by labor and/or owners. It was caused by government fiat - You will close your business NOW OR ELSE! We can debate whether or not this was a good idea, and time will provided provide more clues to help make that decision. right, and not waste this huge sacrifice that many of the citizens have made.

That's a question for the ages: 'did we waste the collective pause the world took while trying to get a handle on the new virus'?

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by timo2 That's a question for the ages: 'did we waste the collective pause the world took while trying to get a handle on the new virus'?

Seems likely that we are in the process of doing so.