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Doable or Not
Old 01-05-2018, 10:54 AM   #1
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Doable or Not

Total nest egg 1.5Mish. Spouse makes about 10k total expenses without healthcare including travel/discretionary spending = 70k (splurging). Me 58 this year D.W. 52.

SS gets me 24k @62, 30k@67, 43k@70

Contemplating ER in 2019. Anyone else in this scenario, contemplated it. Bear in mind I am still relatively young and able to generate another 50k annually reinventing myself as need arises and D.W. could go full time and get some form of HC as well as small increase in income.

I have run it thru firecalc and out to 90 it appears doable. However when I read threads in this forum SWR are below what we would be experiencing unless I am in error somewhere along the way.
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Old 01-05-2018, 11:05 AM   #2
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Nest egg should (historically) be able to provide ~$60k/year, with SS covering the missing amount pretty easily I'd say. Some people here would tell you that's not conservative enough, others would tell you that you should have retired before now.. if you're comfortable with it I see no reason you couldn't retire this year personally.
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Old 01-05-2018, 11:05 AM   #3
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Total nest egg 1.5Mish. Spouse makes about 10k total expenses without healthcare including travel/discretionary spending = 70k (splurging). Me 58 this year D.W. 52.

...
Why would you not count the cost of healthcare ?
By that logic, it's very doable without the cost of: taxes, travel, food, electricity, water,... etc.

That number of 70K is before or after you paid taxes ? Because if it's after, then you need more like 85K

It's also important as to exactly how your nest egg is invested, pre vs post tax accounts.
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Old 01-05-2018, 11:12 AM   #4
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We could spend 6k/month depending on time of year. I currently have a wel paying job that is higher in stress and pay than I need. I am very resourceful and could easily generate the 50k I mentioned earlier.

Best case would be 70k expenses covering healthcare. Worst case between D.W. and I generating needed income to cover HC.
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Old 01-05-2018, 11:42 AM   #5
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Every person in here will tell you healthcare is one of the x factors, coupled with sequence of return risk over time, hence the lower SWR for most.
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Old 01-05-2018, 11:44 AM   #6
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I-orp.com although I think some might pick this calc apart, but its a good starting point to be honest with yourself.
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AA (Stock/Bond/Cash ): 97.5/0/2.5% MIX (Small/Mid/Large): 25/25/50% BLEND(US/Foreign): 100/0%, REIT (Real Estate Equity): ~50% of Assets

FIRE in 2031 @ 50yrs old (+/- 2yrs) w/ a hypothetical $2.5mil portfolio, 3 appreciated homes worth $1.0mil and rental income to fund my gap years until RMD. Assets will go to an inherited IRA where I plan on watching the investments grow until I die or the trust gets executed.
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Old 01-06-2018, 06:45 AM   #7
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You will be able to find opinions and projections to support whatever answer you want. I would not roll the dice with the numbers you have.
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Old 01-06-2018, 07:48 AM   #8
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I think you can retire on what you have. I also think you have the right attitude to make it work from the sound of it. Just remember to plan for the unexpected and have a plan if that might occur. If that doesn't work for you I would re-think before you retire.
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Old 01-06-2018, 08:48 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by Sunset View Post
Why would you not count the cost of healthcare ?
By that logic, it's very doable without the cost of: taxes, travel, food, electricity, water,... etc.

That number of 70K is before or after you paid taxes ? Because if it's after, then you need more like 85K

It's also important as to exactly how your nest egg is invested, pre vs post tax accounts.
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Originally Posted by kgtest View Post
Every person in here will tell you healthcare is one of the x factors, coupled with sequence of return risk over time, hence the lower SWR for most.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kgtest View Post
I-orp.com although I think some might pick this calc apart, but its a good starting point to be honest with yourself.
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Originally Posted by OldShooter View Post
You will be able to find opinions and projections to support whatever answer you want. I would not roll the dice with the numbers you have.

Dilemma I face is staying at a career I enjoy from a monetary perspective but unfortunately because of the demands requires more of my daily,weekly including weekends hours thus not allowing me to enjoy - outside vacations which by the way feel as though they are frowned upon - each and everyday that much more.

I know most will say choices however I feel as though I am trading time for healthcare insurance a few more bucks in my/families pocket and of course a bit more in my retirement account. The difference between what I gross annually and save for retirement 24k max including catch up and 85k draw down would be approximately 15 - 20k.

Guess I should have started a thread regarding ACA subsidy cutoffs based on income levels to better figure in HC costs.
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Old 01-06-2018, 09:09 AM   #10
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Guess I should have started a thread regarding ACA subsidy cutoffs based on income levels to better figure in HC costs.
There's quite a few of them. If you can keep your income to under 250% of FPL it can be attractive. However when will this change?

Keep in mind healthcare is expensive. My silver plan for one person is $1,800 monthly prior to subsidies.
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Old 01-06-2018, 09:13 AM   #11
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It sounds like what you really want to do is get out of a job you hate and not necessarily retire completely. I think you're good to go as long as you and your wife are willing to do something to cover the healthcare costs.

You didn't mention your plan for healthcare but if you're buying your own without subsidy you need to add another $20-$30k to your expenses!
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Old 01-06-2018, 09:22 AM   #12
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Geeez, it’s not the 1.5 mil that gives me pause, lots of folks retire with way less, it is the health insurance wildcard. I know everybody wants to retire as early as possible but that cannot be much fun if a sizable portion of one’s assets go toward HI.
Just sayin’
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Old 01-06-2018, 09:57 AM   #13
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OP i think you are cutting it too close. If you were both 58 currently, then retiring at 59 would be 6 years of HI to worry about, = probably doable. But your DW is 52 so 53 so 12 years. I think you want to be comfortable with the idea of paying $30k per year HC (then happy when it's not at first, but not crippled if it is).

Seems you should spend the next few months considering a career downgrade/change, vs. stopping completely.
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Old 01-06-2018, 10:00 AM   #14
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Geeez, it’s not the 1.5 mil that gives me pause, lots of folks retire with way less, it is the health insurance wildcard. I know everybody wants to retire as early as possible but that cannot be much fun if a sizable portion of one’s assets go toward HI.
Just sayin’
+1

OP-Although your numbers ‘can’ work, they are on the edge of potential failure IMO. FIRECalc will give you a >90% of success, depending on your AA. But, you are clearly in what Jim Otar would call “The Red Zone”, which is not good (see below). In your position, I would not retire until I had a solid plan for healthcare & moved out of the Red Zone. You have 7 yrs until Medicare eligibility; so, come up with a rock solid plan for how you & DW get affordable healthcare until then; COBRA will cover 18 mos of that. Save more on the way.

Lifelong retirement income: the zone strategy | Advisor.ca

The second thing I’d do is have a “real” (yes, I really am going to do this if I have to) backup plan...whenever you retire, now or later. It can be many things (cut expenses, return to a different job, relocate to lower COL area, etc.) or a combination of them all but, you have to be committed to doing it.

This is probably not what you want to hear. But, think of it this way - the stress of an existing job is almost certainly less than the stress of being unemployed without affordable healthcare in a bear market.

Best of luck.
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Old 01-06-2018, 10:38 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by SteveNU View Post
It sounds like what you really want to do is get out of a job you hate and not necessarily retire completely. I think you're good to go as long as you and your wife are willing to do something to cover the healthcare costs.

You didn't mention your plan for healthcare but if you're buying your own without subsidy you need to add another $20-$30k to your expenses!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Choices View Post
Geeez, it’s not the 1.5 mil that gives me pause, lots of folks retire with way less, it is the health insurance wildcard. I know everybody wants to retire as early as possible but that cannot be much fun if a sizable portion of one’s assets go toward HI.
Just sayin’
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aerides View Post
OP i think you are cutting it too close. If you were both 58 currently, then retiring at 59 would be 6 years of HI to worry about, = probably doable. But your DW is 52 so 53 so 12 years. I think you want to be comfortable with the idea of paying $30k per year HC (then happy when it's not at first, but not crippled if it is).

Seems you should spend the next few months considering a career downgrade/change, vs. stopping completely.
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Originally Posted by Huston55 View Post
+1

OP-Although your numbers ‘can’ work, they are on the edge of potential failure IMO. FIRECalc will give you a >90% of success, depending on your AA. But, you are clearly in what Jim Otar would call “The Red Zone”, which is not good (see below). In your position, I would not retire until I had a solid plan for healthcare & moved out of the Red Zone. You have 7 yrs until Medicare eligibility; so, come up with a rock solid plan for how you & DW get affordable healthcare until then; COBRA will cover 18 mos of that. Save more on the way.

Lifelong retirement income: the zone strategy | Advisor.ca

The second thing I’d do is have a “real” (yes, I really am going to do this if I have to) backup plan...whenever you retire, now or later. It can be many things (cut expenses, return to a different job, relocate to lower COL area, etc.) or a combination of them all but, you have to be committed to doing it.

This is probably not what you want to hear. But, think of it this way - the stress of an existing job is almost certainly less than the stress of being unemployed without affordable healthcare in a bear market.

Best of luck.
Appreciate all the input regardless of how dire it may may be, thus the reason I started the thread.

Reinventing my self at my age would not be an issue. What would be more of an issue is finding out reduced income from a new career and health care costs would dramatically affect my families lifestyle if indeed I did make a decision to retire.

As a side note I have failed to mention that mega corp I hang my hat at is more than likely going to have buyouts/offers due to a rumored task in the coming year. Based on last years buyouts/offers the offer would be more than enough to pay my mortgage off thus freeing up approximately 12k in expenses year in and year out.
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Old 01-06-2018, 12:51 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by Huston55 View Post
+1

OP-Although your numbers ‘can’ work, they are on the edge of potential failure IMO. FIRECalc will give you a >90% of success, depending on your AA. But, you are clearly in what Jim Otar would call “The Red Zone”, which is not good (see below). In your position, I would not retire until I had a solid plan for healthcare & moved out of the Red Zone. You have 7 yrs until Medicare eligibility; so, come up with a rock solid plan for how you & DW get affordable healthcare until then; COBRA will cover 18 mos of that. Save more on the way.

Lifelong retirement income: the zone strategy | Advisor.ca

The second thing I’d do is have a “real” (yes, I really am going to do this if I have to) backup plan...whenever you retire, now or later. It can be many things (cut expenses, return to a different job, relocate to lower COL area, etc.) or a combination of them all but, you have to be committed to doing it.

This is probably not what you want to hear. But, think of it this way - the stress of an existing job is almost certainly less than the stress of being unemployed without affordable healthcare in a bear market.

Best of luck.
Thanks for the great link to Jim Otar's article. He also has a great book - Unveiling the Retirement Myths.
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Old 01-06-2018, 01:02 PM   #17
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As a side note I have failed to mention that mega corp I hang my hat at is more than likely going to have buyouts/offers due to a rumored task in the coming year. Based on last years buyouts/offers the offer would be more than enough to pay my mortgage off thus freeing up approximately 12k in expenses year in and year out.
That would definitely help. Our mega corp has been offering early retirement packages for the last two years. Only a handful of people took the packages as they were not that attractive, however.
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Old 01-06-2018, 01:13 PM   #18
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That would definitely help. Our mega corp has been offering early retirement packages for the last two years. Only a handful of people took the packages as they were not that attractive, however.
Yeah I here you about folks not taking the offers. For me if I took the offer I could go to work in the same industry at a xross town competitor without much thought.
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