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03-10-2020, 07:38 PM
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#21
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Mar 2020
Location: WAXHAW
Posts: 36
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I would like to reset the clock on this longest bull market and start a new one. Cannot happen without some pain, but it is normal and natural, and absolutely important to have a bear market from time to time.
Think of it like a forest fire. Everyone would love for the woods to always be lush and green, but a fire must occur every so often in order for nature to function. There are some trees that cannot reproduce without a fire. Sometimes I feel I cannot make any real returns without a bear.
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03-10-2020, 08:32 PM
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#22
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 656
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Those fully invested in stocks, stocks would have to return to their highest level to get back to even. Or if the market drops 50%, their stocks would have to go up 100% to get back to even.
If, OTOH, one did get out of the market before the drop, chance of nice returns. I.E, if the [mod edit] COVID-19 Virus doesn't kill you first.
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03-11-2020, 09:02 AM
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#23
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 1,961
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gumby
I guess I should not assume your motivation in investing. Mine is to make money. At the end of the year, if I have made money, I do not say "yes, I'm substantially richer than a year ago, but the market was distorted by central bank intervention, so I cannot possibly enjoy my gains." Conversely, if I have lost money, I don't console myself by saying "at least the market was efficient." But, again, you may have different objectives.
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Everybody wants to "make money".
My concern with artificially inflated markets is that the money being made isn't stable. It is a sugar high that has no economic foundation of value. The printing presses have to run faster and faster just to keep up and that has not worked out well for any of the other currencies that have done it.
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03-11-2020, 09:48 AM
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#24
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Administrator
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 23,036
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I have not noticed substantial price inflation for the stuff I buy. Unless and until that occurs, I'd say my gains are real.
__________________
Living an analog life in the Digital Age.
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03-11-2020, 12:44 PM
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#25
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,691
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They just said we drop 20% from our highs....that’s bear market territory, right?
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03-11-2020, 01:17 PM
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#26
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Dryer sheet wannabe
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 23
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Typically it's when the average closes below the 20% mark.
For the Dow, a close below 23,640 would do it. We're several hundred points below this mark in the final hour of trading.
On the S&P, the close would need to be below 2,708... we're trading right on this level now.
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03-11-2020, 01:28 PM
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#27
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 8,971
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Make all your wishes come true!
But now watch what you wish for.
Things can get really ugly from here.
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03-11-2020, 02:04 PM
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#28
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Dryer sheet wannabe
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 23
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Dow closed at 23,553. We are now down 20% and technically in a bear market.
FYI... bear markets historically see a 30% market delcine.
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03-11-2020, 02:09 PM
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#29
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,139
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I found a definition last month that said the market had to stay down for 2 months for a bear market, so we’ll see if this persists.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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03-11-2020, 02:12 PM
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#30
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 1,404
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I'm always quietly cheering for a big drop. I buy stocks every month and don't intend to draw on it for many years. I would much rather be buying the same shares for 30% or 40% less than I am right now.
__________________
Luck is when Preparation meets Opportunity.
FIRE'd 1/1/24
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03-11-2020, 02:19 PM
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#31
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Conroe, Texas
Posts: 18,727
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
I found a definition last month that said the market had to stay down for 2 months For a bear market, so we’ll see if this persists.
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Agreed, but the "news" has all been negative, except for the "plan" laid out by the Pres, which will be slow to implement (and maybe not that effective?)....meanwhile, the bad news worsens. I'm planning for a long Spring and Summer of poor earnings by companies and periodic bad news here and there.
With all the cancellations of big events, empty airplanes and ships, people hunkering down and not spending, and general fear of getting CV19, the landscape doesn't look "Rosy".
And the Astros, caught cheating last year, will have a bad year too.
__________________
*********Go Yankees!*********
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03-11-2020, 02:30 PM
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#32
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,139
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aja8888
Agreed, but the "news" has all been negative, except for the "plan" laid out by the Pres, which will be slow to implement (and maybe not that effective?)....meanwhile, the bad news worsens. I'm planning for a long Spring and Summer of poor earnings by companies and periodic bad news here and there.
With all the cancellations of big events, empty airplanes and ships, people hunkering down and not spending, and general fear of getting CV19, the landscape doesn't look "Rosy".
And the Astros, caught cheating last year, will have a bad year too.
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I agree that it’s likely to persist and will probably drop further. There is an awful lot of unwinding to do. And we’ve got several years of animal spirits to overcome. Lots of folks are going to keep hoping this is quick and that the bull resumes.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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03-11-2020, 02:39 PM
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#33
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 13,142
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My gut feeling says market has plenty of room to drop more before going back up.
With the downs and ups lately, I still don't have the feeling there was much panic selling yet. Could be wrong, but perhaps that is yet to come.
__________________
Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
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03-11-2020, 02:49 PM
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#34
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 8,971
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If this is like 2008, we are only half way there.
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03-11-2020, 03:30 PM
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#35
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 14,328
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What I wish doesn't change anything, but I've been waiting for a recession to get some remodeling done. Recently contractors often don't even return calls and if they do quote, the prices are ridiculous.
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03-11-2020, 03:53 PM
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#36
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Midwest
Posts: 2,968
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Quote:
Originally Posted by COcheesehead
If this is like 2008, we are only half way there.
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If it's like 2008 we're more like 1/3 of the way there
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03-12-2020, 11:25 AM
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#37
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Newcastle, WA
Posts: 208
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The market is signalling much more than a recession.
A whole lot more chickens coming home to roost, including the virus, climate change, trillion-dollar deficits, etc. ... it is different this time.
Hope I'm wrong!
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03-12-2020, 02:22 PM
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#38
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: NC Triangle
Posts: 5,807
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Pretty naive, I know, but I’d really prefer it if the stock market could manage a slow descent into a bear market. This is like being a passenger on Air Kamikaze.
__________________
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03-12-2020, 02:29 PM
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#39
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 6,023
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lawrence of Suburbia
The market is signalling much more than a recession.
A whole lot more chickens coming home to roost, including the virus, climate change, trillion-dollar deficits, etc. ... it is different this time.
Hope I'm wrong!
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It is the end times huh?
Well, lets just say I am not worrying about the impact of straws in my soda right now.
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03-12-2020, 02:30 PM
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#40
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Florida's First Coast
Posts: 7,718
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Am I missing something? The S&P in August 2009 was ~1000 or so. Today after the carnage so far is ONLY 2,480! That is still up some ~150%. Why are folks who are in for the long haul so agitated?
Isn't it like home prices? So your home goes up 50% then drops 40% you are still up 10%.
__________________
"Never Argue With a Fool, Onlookers May Not Be Able To Tell the Difference." - Mark Twain
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