Doom and gloom SWR based on 1965-1982

[Hyperborea]

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Determining a reasonable withdrawal rate from a ballpark perspective and periodically adjusting your plan to make sure you arent over or under withdrawing makes perfect sense. But that isnt what is being proposed here by the travelling troll. He thinks, or wants us to think he thinks, that he can determine asset valuations and whether to own them or not.

Oh, I know that from a long and bitter experience on the Motley Fool board. * My post was in reply to db.

I (and a number of others) at first thought he was just another typical math challenged FIRE-wannabe and so I spent time trying to teach him how the math of the calculations works, a bit about probability, etc. *It then became apparent that he wasn't confused about this but instead refused to acknowledge the difference between past versus future, returns versus withdrawal rates, average rates versus absolute minimum rates, medians versus means, etc.

I finally gave up on the composite creature that includes the alias h@cus and probably quite a few more (e.g. jwr1945). *Who knows whether the h@cus story is closer to the real one (guy who tried to RE with way too llittle and went mad with the worry) or the jwr1945 story (REd guy who is ~60 - i.e. b.1945 - and gets his jollies by causing mayhem on internet boards). *Stranger things have happened in the 25 or so years that I've been hanging out on the internet.

[hocus]

I finally gave up on the composite creature that includes the alias h@cus and probably quite a few more (e.g. jwr1945).

My personal favorite is the WilliamBernstein alias I use when publishing books.

[haha]

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In my case when I FIRE it will be the decider on how much time is spent in Thailand/Eastern Europe/South America and Japan/North America/Western Europe.

Tha is an interesting idea. However, too often one realizes that he must add aother name to the already long list of countries where an American is walking around with a sign on his back that says-"Kidnap me!"

Who knows how it will look in 5 years?

Mikey

[unclemick]

The JWR data I looked at (I'm not a math cat) pretty much convinced me that pulling HSWR/SWR out of context of a specific data set and using it willy nilly to draw conclusions generally was dangerous.

SEC yield of MY portfolio plus some small look back variable (1-2%) and adjustments along the way - including age related.

Four Pillars didn't convince me to change. But the JWR data convinced me that
tips weren't for this ER and Bernstein convinced me that slice and dice also sucked(in my case) and individual stocks were the way to go for a reasonable (15%) portion of my ER.

Portfolio value and SWR are not Relavent in my case. The Norwegian widow and DeGaul are.

[Hyperborea]

Quote:

Tha is an interesting idea. However, too often one realizes that he must add aother name to the already long list of countries where an American is walking around with a sign on his back that says-"Kidnap me!" Who knows how it will look in 5 years?

Well, for one thing I'm not an "American" in the US citizen sense. I do have citizenship in one of the countries of the Americas though (amongst others). Unfortunately for me that's the country that "Americans" try to disguise themselves as when they travel by sewing the flags onto their packs, jackets, etc.

However, a lot of it depends on how one chooses to live. A simple quiet life without ostentation should attract little attention. Though you are correct that there are areas that one would be well advised to avoid or travel carefully and quickly through. Some of those are in the US.

[unclemick]

Mexican businessmen getting kidnapped for ransom was the rage a while back. We Americans having a slight(heh heh) tendency toward isolationist views - tend to forget the long tradition thru history.

[haha]

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However, a lot of it depends on how one chooses to live. *A simple quiet life without ostentation should attract little attention. *Though you are correct that there are areas that one would be well advised to avoid or travel carefully and quickly through. *Some of those are in the US.

You probably are a very inoffensive eco-traveler. But be assured that if you could be valuable to anyone- and in a country where $10 per day is a lot, who isn't- people will know.

Mikey

[Hyperborea]

Quote:

You probably are a very inoffensive eco-traveler. But be assured that if you could be valuable to anyone- and in a country where $10 per day is a lot, who isn't- people will know.

Actually more of a very LBYM traveller who realizes that if he wants to see the inside of a Holiday Inn he could do it without the air fare. You are right that in many parts of the world where "$10 per day is a lot" that we are wealthy even without the FIRE stash. However, if you keep a reasonably low profile you will most likely be safe. Just like putting a lock on your front door at home doesn't prevent someone from breaking in. It only convinces them to go for easier targets.

I've visited people in Detroit in the past who warned us that if the car broke down to not get out of the car under any circumstances. Wait for the police to come. There were areas in downtown that you could be "reasonably" safe walking but only within the area of a few blocks that were heavily patrolled by the police. Something that many who live in first world countries generally don't have to deal with.

[raddr]

Quote:

I finally gave up on the composite creature that includes the alias h@cus and probably quite a few more (e.g. jwr1945). *Who knows whether the h@cus story is closer to the real one (guy who tried to RE with way too llittle and went mad with the worry) or the jwr1945 story (REd guy who is ~60 - i.e. b.1945 - and gets his jollies by causing mayhem on internet boards). *Stranger things have happened in the 25 or so years that I've been hanging out on the internet.

If anyone is interested I have started a FIRE-oriented board that is, and forever will be, *****- and JWR1945-free. We have a small but knowledgeable core of posters who don't have to worry about their threads being hijacked by attention-craving trolls. :

raddr-pages.com/forums

[intercst]

Quote:

If anyone is interested I have started a FIRE-oriented board that is, and forever will be, *****- and JWR1945-free. *We have a small but knowledgeable core of posters who don't have to worry about their threads being hijacked by attention-craving trolls. : raddr-pages.com/forums

I think you're on to something there raddr....

Hoco-Mania will no doubt spur the creation of several more "*****-free" sites.

intercst

[intercst]

Quote:

He'll just register with some other bogus aka...

He's registered under four different screen names on the Motley Fool, but Hoco-Mania is so distinctive, we can usually make a definitive identification by the second or third post.

intercst

[hocus]

I have started a FIRE-oriented board that is, and forever will be, *****- and JWR1945-free.

Even our critics acknowledge that neither JWR1945 nor myself engage in abusive posting practices. What we are saying is highly controversial, that's for sure. But why do people feel a need to be protected from exposure to it?

A good number of people from time to time have expressed interest in hearing us out. But those people want to talk substance, not this other stuff. Why can't those who do not have an interest in what we are saying just ignore the threads in which it is discussed?

[raddr]

Quote:

He's registered under four different screen names on the Motley Fool, but Hoco-Mania is so distinctive, we can usually make a definitive identification by the second or third post. intercst

LOL - yeah, I think we can make a positive ID, especially with my co-administrator Ataloss constantly on guard for hoco/JWR-speak. :P

[haha]

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LOL - yeah, I think we can make a positive ID, especially with my co-administrator Ataloss constantly on guard for hoco/JWR-speak. :P

And not since junior-high have you boys had so much fun!

[Bob_Smith]

Quote:

If anyone is interested I have started a FIRE-oriented board...

Raddr, the link isn't working for me. Is this the address?
http://early-retirement.org/cgi-bin/...ges.com/forums

[sgeeeee]

Quote:

Raddr, the link isn't working for me. Is this the address? http://early-retirement.org/cgi-bin/...ges.com/forums

try:
http://www.raddr-pages.com/forums/

[Bob_Smith]

Thanks SG.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Quote:

Even our critics acknowledge that neither JWR1945 nor myself engage in abusive posting practices. What we are saying is highly controversial, that's for sure.

I'm a critic, and you do engage in abusive posting practices.

There, happy now?

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Why can't those who do not have an interest in what we are saying just ignore the threads in which it is discussed?

Probably for the same reason why you insist on posting about it in threads that have nothing to do with SWR's.

Is there a reason why when pretty much everyone on a board tells you to take a hike, that you insist on pushing your horsepuckey anyhow?

Take up selling insurance door to door or something. Put that pointless insistence to some good use. :P :

[raddr]

***** asks,

Why can't those who do not have an interest in what we are saying just ignore the threads in which it is discussed?

Well, when someone asks a sincere question they hope that it will be followed by a focused on-topic discussion. If, however, you become involved it quickly degenerates into a nonsensical anti-intercst SWR tirade and the thread degenerates into a big cluster-f**k. So, you see, even if the original poster ignores you they still find that their thread has been trashed by you and those that want to argue with you and they never get the discussion that they'd hoped for. That will not happen at my forum.

[hocus]

Is there a reason why when pretty much everyone on a board tells you to take a hike, that you insist on pushing your horsepuckey anyhow?

I gave a link earlier in this thread to the "SWR of 6.21 Percent for 26 Years?" thread, noting that that thread contained a good bit of valuable substantive discussions. Here's one comment that was put forward during that thread.

AMT: "I'm awe struck by the depth of these discussions. *I am very glad to be learning from you folks."

That's the sort of thing that lights my fire, TH. I chose writing as a career because I love to learn and I love to teach. Researching articles I write allows me to learn. Publishing them allows me to teach.

AMT has learned from these discussions. That's evident. If you want me to prepare a really, really long post, I can put one up listing scores of comments along the lines of the one I put forward above by AMT. I have learned a lot from SWR discussions, and hundreds of other community members have too.