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Old 11-28-2017, 08:00 PM   #21
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Is this a 'wheee!!' thread?
NO, absolutely not! No, no, no, no no.
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Old 11-28-2017, 08:14 PM   #22
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NO, absolutely not! No, no, no, no no.
Only matters if She says it. (Thanks for keeping your "W****!" holstered, W2R! )

PS - Put in a small rebalance for tomorrow just in case.
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Old 11-28-2017, 08:27 PM   #23
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Watch for another leg up when all the bitcoin billionaires cash out and look for alternative investments.
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Old 11-28-2017, 08:46 PM   #24
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No, not a WHEEE!!! thread! Just a happy thread. As you all must have figured out by now, my WHEEE!!! seems to be broken or something. I already did it a few times this year, and nothing happened.

I was offline for a few minutes just now, figuring out my spending projections for 2017. Looks like as of today I am coming in $1054 under what I spent last year. Now that would be a non-contagious, harmless little wheee, I would think!

Market up? Spending down? I like this.
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Old 11-28-2017, 10:34 PM   #25
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Looking back at recent historical market data, I saw things that's hard to explain even though I lived through it.

In 1998, the year building up to the dot-com bubble that burst in early 2000, I saw that the S&P was at 1282, and at a P/E of around 33.

In early 2000, when the NASDAQ hit its all-time high and was about to collapse, the S&P reached 1442, but its earnings rose such that the P/E declined to 27.

Even as the dot-coms and tech stocks imploded, earnings of the S&P continued to climb until the end of 2000, when they started to decline as the country entered into a recession in 2001. Then, 9/11 event occurred, and it was mayhem.

By mid 2004, the S&P earnings already recovered to the level it reached in mid 2000, even with inflation adjustment. What was the price? It was around 1100, compared to 1400 in 2000. And that was before inflation.

Why? Investors were not as gunho with stocks in 2004 as they were in 1998 or in 2000. The P/E of the S&P was down to 16 in 2004, compared to the mid 20 in 2000. Same earnings, but much lower stock prices. They loved stock, then they did not love it anymore.

Yes, that's P/E reversion, my fellow investors. It happened so many times before, and it will happen again. That's what Bogle has been warning us. And that's why long-term return of stocks is going to be in the single-digit when we talk time periods of a decade or more.

Sell, sell, sell? Not now, but soon.
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Old 11-28-2017, 10:49 PM   #26
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Let me know when, as I just figured out we are about 95% in stocks, so it's been great the past couple of years, but the Piper is coming.
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Old 11-28-2017, 10:57 PM   #27
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LOL! has a market-timing thread. You should watch his announcement there.

Oh wait! There's the proven "Wh***" proclamation. I will have to frequent this forum more to make sure I do not miss it. Lots of money involved, as I have quite a bit more than I did in the last two market collapses.

Darn, talking about the late 90s, it occurred to me that it has been almost 20 years. 20 years! Time went by fast, then you are old. This bull market may be the last one for many of us to try to time. Once it crashes, many of us will not be around to see the next bull market.

Oh, that's sad. Not about the money, but about not being around to count your money.
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Old 11-28-2017, 11:06 PM   #28
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I have a feeling this bull could run longer than the 1982-1999 bull. Like Buffet says we will have interuptions but the beat goes on.
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Old 11-28-2017, 11:06 PM   #29
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Or to blow that dough.
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Old 11-29-2017, 12:17 PM   #30
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I have been rebalancing frequently this year waiting for the bottom to fall out but nothing so far... joke's on me.
I normally rebalance once per year. Today makes the third rebalance this year. But, we are at 70% stocks and I am reluctant to let it drift higher. Each time I have pared stocks back to the 70% level. I considered going lower, but did not.
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Old 11-29-2017, 03:17 PM   #31
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I’ve been hanging in there waiting. Distributions expected next month I will take in cash, and that should take care of most of the Jan rebalancing for me. I have done a little trimming on foreign funds which are way ahead.
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Old 11-29-2017, 03:35 PM   #32
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The trip from 20k to 25k is redefining The Roaring Twenties.
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Old 11-30-2017, 10:53 AM   #33
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Dow 25k count down begins. Tax cuts are on the way.
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Old 11-30-2017, 10:58 AM   #34
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Currently, it is not to the same level, but why do I have some nagging déjà vu feelings?
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+1
+2.

I didn't feel that way until this week. Something about the bitcoin thing and the tech rally (aside from yesterday) gave me that feeling.

At Megacorp, people are talking a lot like I remember in 1999, using no downside terms when it comes to Megacorp Stock.

It is unsettling me, but I'm not a timer, so I'm just checking the shutters and door latches. Oh, and I'm discounting my portfolio 20% in planning for ER next year. Trying to take some of the sequence of return risk out of the equation.
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Old 11-30-2017, 11:19 AM   #35
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The last time I had that feeling of leaving too much money on the table (by being too conservatively invested) was in 2007. Back then I increased my equity allocation because I started to feel like I was falling behind and it turned out to be a mistake. I am staying put his time around. Net worth is still up a good amount this year (despite an extensive home renovation project) and I have already raised enough cash to cover next year's expenses. That's good enough.
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Old 11-30-2017, 11:21 AM   #36
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I'm also having the omg, omg feelings. Everyone I work with is totally oblivious though. I think when statements come out there will be a stampede towards stocks which might be the blow off top everyone waits for to signal the end of a bull market.
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Old 11-30-2017, 11:24 AM   #37
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The last time I had that feeling of leaving too much money on the table (by being too conservatively invested) was in 2007. Back then I increased my equity allocation because I started to feel like I was falling behind and it turned out to be a mistake. I am staying put his time around. Net worth is still up a good amount this year (despite an extensive home renovation project) and I have already raised enough cash to cover next year's expenses. That's good enough.
Yes. Good enough is important. At these times, when market adrenalin is on high and animal spirits are running wild, I keep in mind that my most important metric is not % return, it’s portfolio survival. So, for me, it’s stick to the plan and be ready to rebalance.
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Old 11-30-2017, 11:33 AM   #38
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Yes. Good enough is important. At these times, when market adrenalin is on high and animal spirits are running wild, I keep in mind that my most important metric is not % return, it’s portfolio survival. So, for me, it’s stick to the plan and be ready to rebalance.
+1000 Exactly.

I'm ready for the next crash. This time, I have SS and a mini-pension to cover some of my bare bones expenses. I have a lot of cash on hand at the moment, too, and have never had a higher portfolio balance than at present. I am not changing my AA because it is the same AA that got me through 2008-2009 without selling low.

I ran a scenario and even if we repeated the 2008-2009 level of crash, I am ready. I dare you, Fate, bring it on. In the words of Clint Eastwood, "go ahead, make my day".
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Old 11-30-2017, 11:34 AM   #39
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PS - Put in a small rebalance for tomorrow just in case.
Just popped in to say "You're welcome" to everyone. Call me if you need me.
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Old 11-30-2017, 11:57 AM   #40
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Just popped in to say "You're welcome" to everyone. Call me if you need me.
Just the excuse I need to post some music.

Call me (call me) on the line
Call me, call me any, anytime
Call me (call me) my love
You can call me any day or night
Call me



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