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10-17-2005, 12:18 PM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 78
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Dow 40000
Super-bulls set sights on Dow 40,000
A growing group of forecasters see a monster-sized rally just ahead
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/...5.asp?GT1=7160
Guess I will be rich soon 
__________________
FIRE may actually be attainable
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10-17-2005, 01:21 PM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Lou-evil
Posts: 2,025
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Re: Dow 40000
Ahhh book sales must have slowed down for Dent
Care to provide us with any fundamental details in the article? Well, just look at a drop here and see a rise there and today's market will act exactly the same. Right....
How could the Dow (full of big caps) suddenly explode to 40,000? I suppose earnings and profits will grow at a rate to justify that kind of move? Ha
Article interrupted my 'praying for a huge drop' session
__________________
"These walls are kind of funny. First you hate 'em, then you get used to 'em. Enough time passes, gets so you depend on them"
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10-17-2005, 01:28 PM
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#3
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Diego
Posts: 5,248
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Re: Dow 40000
We all know markets can behave irrationally, but while I would enjoy the ride, I'd be sold out of the market no later than 30k. 
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10-17-2005, 02:09 PM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
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Re: Dow 40000
It's a typo...
Should be 400000!! 
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
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10-17-2005, 03:01 PM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,502
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Re: Dow 40000
I think maybe 4000!
__________________
Work is something you do to get enough $ so you don't have to....Me.
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10-17-2005, 03:02 PM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Chattanooga
Posts: 3,212
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Re: Dow 40000
__________________
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Ezra Solomon
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10-17-2005, 03:10 PM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
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Re: Dow 40000
Based on historical average PE ratio (15.11 +/- 38.5%), the Dow should be 9138.
(Based on the 9/30 close)
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
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10-17-2005, 04:03 PM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
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Re: Dow 40000
Dow may dip below 10,000 by yearend - JPMorgan
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuot...7393837_newsml
NEW YORK, Oct 17 (Reuters) - The Dow Jones industrial average may end 2005 below 10,000 as lower margins and higher interest rates are likely to hurt corporate profits, pushing stock prices down, JPMorgan's global equity analyst Abhijit Chakrabortti said.
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
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10-17-2005, 04:09 PM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 8,687
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Re: Dow 40000
As I've said before, I'm not gonna worry about what the "experts" forecast. I will continue with by same old 1/3 stocks, 1/3 bonds, and 1/3 other(cd's, reits, commodities) and hope for the best. I've done more damage over the years trying to market time that I'm gonna just stay the course with this allocation. Not gonna get rich, but hopefully won't get hit too hard either. * 
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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10-17-2005, 04:28 PM
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#10
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
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Re: Dow 40000
 Quote:
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Originally Posted by Have Funds, Will Retire
Based on historical average PE ratio (15.11 +/- 38.5%), the Dow should be 9138.
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Dent has been predicting DOW 40,000 since 1993, I think. He says it'll happen in 2008. He's also betting that the economy speeds up to 7% GDP growth (from about 3.5% now).
If P/E levels stay the same, 7% growth would get us to 12,700 by 2008. So, he's apparently betting that P/E's will tripple to around 60.
Anything's possible, but some things are very improbable.
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