Dow high on April 1st 2023 , Poll

[Lakewood90712]

Place your bets, I mean vote in the poll

[Rowej]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lakewood90712 Place your bets, I mean vote in the poll

Placed bet, 17,000 to 21,000, time will tell. Could be be higher, could be lower, or between 17,000 and 21,000.

I bet most will bet higher, as we all hope it will be, eternal optimist, or talking our book position.

[statsman]

Having no idea how we get out of the rabbit hole we have jumped into and what the condition will be of our country afterward, it could be anything. How many businesses (large and small) survive? Who will be in the White House and who will control Congress?

What are the odds of another virus being hoisted on the planet like COVID-19 in the next three years? Anyone wanting to disrupt or damage the US now knows the game plan.

[mpeirce]

I really don't understand the slavish following of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It's just 30 companies, albeit large ones.

I guess it's the supremacy of the Wall Street Journal in financial reporting and their PR machine.

I'll stick the S&P 500 as a much broader indicator for the US economy.

[Running_Man]

Poll doesn't go low enough

[rk911]

assuming the prez is re-elected i would expect a booming dow by 2023 otherwise not so much.

[aaronc879]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Running_Man Poll doesn't go low enough

Really? Why? Coronavirus will have a vaccine long before then and the market should go up pretty quick once we get back to normal.

[Clone]

7000 x (Average Resale price of a Big Mac)


I have no idea if Big Macs will be $3 or $7.50. I am much more concerned about what inflation is going to do in the next 10 years than I am with what the market will do. I expect the inflation adjusted value of the market to be about where it was 3 months ago.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpeirce I really don't understand the slavish following of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It's just 30 companies, albeit large ones. I guess it's the supremacy of the Wall Street Journal in financial reporting and their PR machine. I'll stick the S&P 500 as a much broader indicator for the US economy.

Yet, the Dow and the S&P track each other reasonably well, from 2010 till now.

From 2000 to 2010, the Dow led because it did not have as many stocks that went bust.

[Mountain skier]

DOW will be up as long as our current president is still in charge, otherwise, no way.

[Lakewood90712]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clone 7000 x (Average Resale price of a Big Mac) I have no idea if Big Macs will be $3 or $7.50. I am much more concerned about what inflation is going to do in the next 10 years than I am with what the market will do. I expect the inflation adjusted value of the market to be about where it was 3 months ago.

The Big Mac index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Mac_Index

Corporate website says $3.99 for corp owned locations. Franchisees can set their own prices . so about 28,000 using the above secret formula.

[DrRoy]

Quote:

Could be be higher, could be lower, or between 17,000 and 21,000.

Quote:

I really don't understand the slavish following of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It's just 30 companies, albeit large ones. I'll stick the S&P 500 as a much broader indicator for the US economy.

+1

voted 25K-30k

[aja8888]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Running_Man Poll doesn't go low enough

Right on! I voted 13K - 17K, but it wouldn't surprise me to see it much lower.

[aja8888]

Quote:

Originally Posted by aaronc879 Really? Why? Coronavirus will have a vaccine long before then and the market should go up pretty quick once we get back to normal.

It's more than just the virus we should be concerned with.

Remember who said "it's the economy, stupid!"

Answer:

Quote:

“The economy, stupid” is a phrase coined by James Carville in 1992. It is often quoted from a televised quip by Carville as “It's the economy, stupid.” Carville was a strategist in Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign against incumbent George H. W. Bush.

Once we get past the virus, the U.S. will be facing a devastated economy with high unemployment, lots of closed small businesses and a oversold real estate market full of empty commercial buildings. It will be a mess.