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Old 02-13-2020, 04:36 PM   #421
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Old 02-13-2020, 04:37 PM   #422
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Sweat.
Perspiration?
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Old 02-13-2020, 04:39 PM   #423
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Perspiration?
I never won a spelling bee or is that spelling-B or ... ?

And what do bees have to do with spelling?
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Old 02-13-2020, 04:52 PM   #424
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I never won a spelling bee or is that spelling-B or ... ?

And what do bees have to do with spelling?
Courtesy of Google, here's the origin of the term "spelling bee".
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Old 02-13-2020, 05:11 PM   #425
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It's me, as a teenager living in Hawaii, back in the 1960's. And thank you for the compliment.

When I look at it, I can almost hear my late mother say "Get that hair out of your eyes!!! " Neither parent was a fan of those bangs.

We were about to go for a ride in my uncle's Jeepster, which was open to the air and that is why my aunt lent me her scarf to cover my long hair.
LOL! Interesting how we can remember things like that. A great picture of you.
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Old 02-13-2020, 06:27 PM   #426
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It's me, as a teenager living in Hawaii, back in the 1960's. And thank you for the compliment.

When I look at it, I can almost hear my late mother say "Get that hair out of your eyes!!! " Neither parent was a fan of those bangs.

We were about to go for a ride in my uncle's Jeepster, which was open to the air and that is why my aunt lent me her scarf to cover my long hair.
The hair reminds me of Mary Ann on Gilligans Island. You did say the picture was in Hawaii and so it just reminds me of the show. But it's a good picture and it's kind of fun to see a snapshot in time.
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Old 02-14-2020, 11:04 AM   #427
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Emotionally this feels a little like 2007 when we were flush. So there is an underlying feeling of "when will the hammer come down?". And who cares about world pandemics? Apparently not the US markets.

How to deal with that? I just keep rebalancing when stocks move up another 1% above our target AA. So at least keeping the risk a constant. It is probably somewhat kidding myself but feels like "doing something".
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Old 02-14-2020, 11:23 AM   #428
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In theory there wouldn't have to be a stock market crash to get PE ratios more in line with the historical averages. As I write the DOW is at 29,386. It's climbing fast, but not so fast as to be crazy. Not yet I don't think. But it is getting scarier the higher we climb. Because everyone knows at some point , there will be a bear market.

Or maybe not in the next few years. Why couldn't the market stay high until earnings caught up with the PE? Because something will probably happen to bring the market down before that is a possibility, slim as it is.

I can't worry about what I can't control. In the mean time I will continue to ride the train until it is thrown off the track.
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Old 02-14-2020, 11:44 AM   #429
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We make up these pretend cause-and-effect relationships in our minds, because we really, really, REALLY want to be able to correctly predict/control such things. It's only human nature to want to do that.
I couldn't agree more. Speaking more generally, this reminds me of the way that some folk are fond of the saying, "Things happen for a reason". It can be a comforting thought when we're in the thick of things, but I don't quite agree with it. I think that often, things just happen, and we attempt to find the reason, or some kind of pattern in such events.

It might sound like a cynical way of looking at the world but, to me, it is realistic. I like to face situations upfront, as they present themselves, and make the best of them, regardless of the reason they happened.
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Old 02-14-2020, 11:57 AM   #430
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I couldn't agree more. Speaking more generally, this reminds me of the way that some folk are fond of the saying, "Things happen for a reason". It can be a comforting thought when we're in the thick of things, but I don't quite agree with it. I think that often, things just happen, and we attempt to find the reason, or some kind of pattern in such events.

It might sound like a cynical way of looking at the world but, to me, it is realistic. I like to face situations upfront, as they present themselves, and make the best of them, regardless of the reason they happened.
You mean we don't live in the best of all possible worlds? Is that you, Voltaire?
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Old 02-14-2020, 12:08 PM   #431
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You mean we don't live in the best of all possible worlds? Is that you, Voltaire?
He was a sensible and pragmatic fellow, that Voltaire. I have a feeling he would have fitted in well here!
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Old 02-15-2020, 05:47 AM   #432
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I couldn't agree more. Speaking more generally, this reminds me of the way that some folk are fond of the saying, "Things happen for a reason". It can be a comforting thought when we're in the thick of things, but I don't quite agree with it. I think that often, things just happen, and we attempt to find the reason, or some kind of pattern in such events.

It might sound like a cynical way of looking at the world but, to me, it is realistic. I like to face situations upfront, as they present themselves, and make the best of them, regardless of the reason they happened.
That "Things happen for a reason" point of view usually comes from believing that a higher power controls your life and the universe. Itís close to fatalism (I have virtually no control over my life, itís all in all-powerful Dietyís hands) which is common in many cultures around the world.

Other than ďaccepting what I cannot changeĒ, I never could ascribe to those points of view. In spite of the comfort one might get during troubled times. Just never made sense to me. And I had a very thorough religious education growing up!
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Old 02-15-2020, 05:59 AM   #433
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Regarding the death rate, the numbers reported are as follows by John Hopkins CSSE on 2/13/2020:

Confirmed cases 60331 / Death 1369 / Recovered 6055

Does that mean that the death rate is 1369 out of 7424 (1369+6055), or 18%?
I would say 1369/60331 so 2.3%.

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Because market movements are just about totally impossible for investors like us to predict.

We make up these pretend cause-and-effect relationships in our minds, because we really, really, REALLY want to be able to correctly predict/control such things. It's only human nature to want to do that. But if we really could predict market movements accurately based on world events like that, then each of us would be a billionaire living on a secluded private island, and unlikely to communicate our secrets to the world.

My best advice? Ignore predictions you read, especially from those who stand to profit by "selling" their predicting capabilities.
Very well said. There was a day in the last week or two where the market declined, supposedly on bad coronavirus news. The next day the news was worse, but the market rose.
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Old 02-15-2020, 06:06 AM   #434
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I would say 1369/60331 so 2.3%.



Very well said. There was a day in the last week or two where the market declined, supposedly on bad coronavirus news. The next day the news was worse, but the market rose.
I have been fascinated by the entrenched FOMO attitude of the US markets in the face of a serious economic threat, looking for any excuse, no matter how feeble, to run up the numbers. It can go on for a long time, before it suddenly breaks.....

I just shake my head, observe that Iím currently at my target AA, and go about my other business.
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Old 02-15-2020, 09:11 AM   #435
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I have been fascinated by the entrenched FOMO attitude of the US markets in the face of a serious economic threat, looking for any excuse, no matter how feeble, to run up the numbers. It can go on for a long time, before it suddenly breaks.....

I just shake my head, observe that Iím currently at my target AA, and go about my other business.
Wouldnít it be nice to be able to measure the FOMO versus other factors. Recent months have seen growth funds beating value by a fair amount. Perhaps that is due to FOMO but they do tend to converge eventually.
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Old 02-15-2020, 09:26 AM   #436
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I would say 1369/60331 so 2.3%.
The rest of the patients who are neither dead nor recovered (52907 out of 60331) cannot stay in limbo forever. After a few weeks, they should be either dead or back to normal.

The problem with using 60331 as the denominator is that it includes recently diagnosed patients, and the disease has not run its course with these patients yet.

Because the total number of cases exploded in the last few weeks and the fate of these recent patients is still undecided, should we not count only the earlier cases?
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Old 02-15-2020, 09:31 AM   #437
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Here is a chart of what I was referring to in my last post. It shows VUG (Vanguard large cap growth), GSPC (the SP500), and VTV (VG large cap value). You can see the divergence of these since the latest market run started at the end of 2018. Recently the divergence has accelerated.

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Old 02-15-2020, 09:38 AM   #438
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Here is a chart of what I was referring to in my last post. It shows VUG (Vanguard large cap growth), GSPC (the SP500), and VTV (VG large cap value). You can see the divergence of these since the latest market run started at the end of 2018. Recently the divergence has accelerated.

It's the new economy. We don't need anything else besides smartphones and computers, and apps like FB and Twitter. If we need anything, Amazon is there to provide it.
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Old 02-15-2020, 09:48 AM   #439
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It's the new economy. We don't need anything else besides smartphones and computers, and apps like FB and Twitter. If we need anything, Amazon is there to provide it.
I don't profess to understand why the markets are valuing things the way they are except that growth companies have good earnings in general. And with a strong dollar you can bet that foreign markets see our growth stocks as tempting investments.

The largest 10 companies in VUG make up 42% of the fund and in order are:

Microsoft Corp.
Apple Inc.
Alphabet Inc.
Amazon.com Inc.
Facebook Inc.
Visa Inc.
Mastercard Inc.
Home Depot Inc.
Comcast Corp.
Boeing Co.
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Old 02-15-2020, 10:21 AM   #440
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Wouldnít it be nice to be able to measure the FOMO versus other factors. Recent months have seen growth funds beating value by a fair amount. Perhaps that is due to FOMO but they do tend to converge eventually.
There are probably also big short squeezes going on.
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