Dow Prediction for 12/31/10

[kcowan]

Dow 10,000
Gold 1380
Oil 96

 

[rescueme]

Gosh... I do.
It is all over the place, and remains a pretty good proxy for VTSMX, Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index. I can see the DOW on a bank sign driving down the street and easily estimate my portfolio value.

So you only invest in one country?

 

[IndependentlyPoor]

So you only invest in one country?

Got me.

 

[CuppaJoe]

15211

At least! j/k

Why so pessimistic, OP? Would you like a mod. to add higher guesses?

Seriously, I estimate it will again be hovering around 13999-14001. IOW, it will fluctuate on 12/31/10.

 

[easysurfer]

With the dow nudging over 11,000 as of this moment, I just had to take a peek on our predictions. Not bad, the majority of the votes landed between 10500 thru 12500. Of course the year isn't over yet!

 

[ziggy29]

One thing I continue to find troubling (beyond the lousy economy itself) is the very high correlation between stock prices and oil prices over the last year or so. It just feels like any strong economic recovery will be killed before it starts by $120+ oil.

 

[dex]

One thing I continue to find troubling (beyond the lousy economy itself) is the very high correlation between stock prices and oil prices over the last year or so. It just feels like any strong economic recovery will be killed before it starts by $120+ oil.

My guess - stocks & oil move in the same direction at the same time - stocks & oil look ahead saying economic activity will pick up - stock & oil up, dollar down seems to be the relationship. My only guess for the dollar down is the low interest rates & if economic activity picks up; dollars flow out of the USA.

 

[FUEGO]

I'll go second. Dow 11,850. That will be up 12% from the start of the year. Seems reasonable given where we were in 07 and 08. And our economic situation will be 9 months clearer by then (not necessarily better though).

I wanted to revive this old thread so we could check what we guessed and where we are as we close in on the end of the year. I'm still sticking with my guess! The old crystal ball has been pretty clear lately.

And kudos to the ER forum members. The median from the poll is very close to where the Dow is today.

 

[MichaelB]

I wanted to revive this old thread so we could check what we guessed and where we are as we close in on the end of the year. I'm still sticking with my guess! The old crystal ball has been pretty clear lately.

And kudos to the ER forum members. The median from the poll is very close to where the Dow is today.

The year isn't over. We all know what happens when someone engages in premature celebration. This is a bad omen...

 

[Gumby]

The year isn't over. We all know what happens when someone engages in premature celebration. This is a bad omen...

Count no man happy until he is dead. -- Herodotus

 

[FUEGO]

The year isn't over. We all know what happens when someone engages in premature celebration. This is a bad omen...

Just doing my part to get a little sale going for us young dreamers!

 

[kcowan]

Congratulations to all the poll participants for their bravery in trying to predict the future. As Barry Ritholtz said today, the government is causing a meltup, delaying the peak into 2011.

 

[bbbamI]

The year isn't over. We all know what happens when someone engages in premature celebration. This is a bad omen...

Oh...so that's what it's called now?

 

[W2R]

I like that! I'll see that and up you one, to 12,825.

I don't want to be premature or anything, but I would guess that maybe I was a teeny weeny bit overly optimistic on this one...

 

[Westernskies]

Oh...so that's what it's called now?

When it comes to the Dow, many of us here on E-R.org are guilty of premature speculation.

 

[bbbamI]

When it comes to the Dow, many of us here on E-R.org are guilty of premature speculation.

Ahhhh now...that really is a shame.

 

[martyb]

When it comes to the Dow, many of us here on E-R.org are guilty of premature speculation.

I used to have that problem, back when I was a young whipper snapper, but now that I'm a mature gentleman....oh, ya'll were talking about something else, I guess...

 

[bbbamI]

Well, we are talking about 'prediction'.

 

[FinanceDude]

Well, we are talking about 'prediction'.

The medical term is "lag time"...............

 

[bbbamI]

The medical term is "lag time"...............

Ahhhh...dang it...I should have gone to med school....

 

[frayne]

Bump

 

[W2R]

Bump

Hey, we still have over a week! The Dow COULD go up a 1300 points or so, and meet my prediction. Really, it could. I am waiting... C'mon, Dow! You can do it!

 

[kyounge1956]

Well it's in the right ballpark (I voted 11,500-12,500). Whether it will stay there is another question.

How many more trading days this year? Does the market take Friday off when the actual holiday is on Saturday?

 

[haha]

Well it's in the right ballpark (I voted 11,500-12,500). Whether it will stay there is another question.

How many more trading days this year? Does the market take Friday off when the actual holiday is on Saturday?

Stock market closed Christmas Eve, open normal hours New Year's Eve.

Ha

 

[ksr]

So, it looks like as a group we did pretty well with this one. DOW closed at 11,577.

Now it's almost time to start guessing for 2011!