Dow Predictions by the End of 2009

[W2R]

Time for all of us to pull our our crystal balls and participate in a poll about our expectations for the daily closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

Will the daily closing value of the Dow peek above 10,000 on any day before the end of 2009? Will it go below 8,000 on any day?

Here's your chance to say what you REALLY think. A poll will be attached to this thread.

 

[NW-Bound]

Are we all becoming DMT (Dirty Market Timer)?

I still think of myself as a CMT. I refuse to vote because I really do not know how it will turn out.

As more and more events unfold, and more statistics on the world economy are revealed, I will buy or sell my positions accordingly. Still holding, not [-]trading[/-] balancing at this point.

PS. I did not see that W2R has allowed the last choice for people like me. So, I went back and voted. Now, where's my button "I voted today"?

 

[bssc]

My guess is above 10000. Of course, one good day could put us there. Hey, I would say 11,000 by the end of the year.

 

[W2R]

My guess is above 10000. Of course, one good day could put us there. Hey, I would say 11,000 by the end of the year.

Oh, I like that way of thinking!!

I almost used 11,000, but it seemed like such a big increase. Looking at the results, probably I should have compromised on 10,500.

 

[CuppaJoe]

I don't see an ending date for the poll. My best plan would be to wait to vote until people return to trading after Labor Day. The Schwab light bulb indicator may be illuminating but I don't know how to read it yet; last time I checked, they still had a few bulbs short of a full marquee. Does anyone know their maintenance schedule? What does it all mean, why are we here?

 

[NW-Bound]

It just occurred to me that we have had polls like this in the past. However, the best I know, there has been no compilation to show how good the consensus or majority turns out to be.

If it can be shown that the polls here have predictive values (and they very well might), I can see someone contacting CNBC about us FIRE'ed people making good market calls. Heck, just the fact that you are FIRE'd means something. This gotta bring in traffic and money. Andy will then cut dividend checks for us, right Andy? And raises and bennies for the moderators too.

 

[Rustic23]

I searched some threads to see what would come up for the DOW. Here are some threads from the past.

Retire@40 6/3/2005
I just checked the DOW only to see we are at about the same level we were 5 years ago at 10.5K.* I guess we don't need to worry about a bubble in the stock market.

Bum 5/5/2006
Spank my behind and take away my Boglehead pin. With the Dow at 11577 who can resist locking in some profits or at least taking some money off the table...I can't.

Want2Retire 1/1/2007
I know we're not SUPPOSED to feel happy due to the fact that the Dow is over 14,000. Stocks are no longer on sale at a blue light special, and all that.

AirJordan 2/3/2007
Well it's almost a forgone conclusion now that the Dow will drop below 12k. I was just curious when you peeps are ready to back up the truck?

Audreyh1 10/6/2008
Folks on CNBC have to go dig out their DOW 10,000 hats again. We have crossed under!

NewGuy88 3/8/2008
Dow Falls under 12,000 as job losses roil Wall St.
I know I know doom and gloom newguy, But things really are about to hit the fan in a big ugly way.

 

[REWahoo]

Wheeee...!

I have absolutely no idea where it will end up (or down).

 

[FIREd]

I guessed that it will end the year above 10,000 after shortly sliding below 8,000 in the fall.

 

[freebird5825]

Miss Clueless here still has trouble wrapping her hands around what the Dow (only 30 stocks) should equal numerically during the bulls and the bears.
I'm more of a YTD percentage or a historical gain chart person.
So I took the last option.

 

[audreyh1]

Where is that DOW prediction thread from earlier this year? Whatever I said then, I have no reason to change it now.

Audrey

 

[FIREsetter]

We will hit 11000 on the dow before year end then back down to 8500 after that I have no idea.

 

[dixonge]

Where is that DOW prediction thread from earlier this year? Whatever I said then, I have no reason to change it now.

Audrey

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/2009-predictions-41663.html

 

[audreyh1]

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/2009-predictions-41663.html

Thanks! Folks are so great here about finding threads for me! I did a search that included "2009" and "prediction" and can't imagine why it didn't find this thread! So thanks!

BTW - I voted DOW 11,000 on that poll. We shall see!

Audrey

 

[W2R]

OK, but THIS poll is not asking what your prediction is for the end of 2009. It is asking about two specific values and for the entire time period between now and the end of 2009.

Even though you voted for 11,000 by the end of 2009 on a previous poll, that only eliminates two of the five possible choices on this poll. Different question. Check it out and vote if you wish.

 

[audreyh1]

Well, I just can't do any better than a guess at the end of year value. Any attempt to predict price movements up or down before that date makes my brain hurt! (say that last part in the proper Monty Python accent)

Audrey

 

[W2R]

Well, I just can't do any better than a guess at the end of year value. Any attempt to predict price movements up or down before that date makes my brain hurt! (say that last part in the proper Monty Python accent)

Audrey

Well, then it sounds like you have a strong preference for one of the choices in THIS poll, that's for sure! See? that wasn't hard at all.

 

[Notmuchlonger]

My my my aren't we an optimistic bunch.

 

[bssc]

Well, we closed above 10,000 today.

 

[kcowan]

Just a minor blip...

 

[RonBoyd]

My signature lines are my only opinion... this week.

 

[megacorp-firee]

I've stopped speculating ever since 2000 ... just got tired of being wrong all the time

 

[kcowan]

what is all the fuss?

 

[Aussie Trooper]

The most accurate prediction I or anyone can possibly be is Somewhere between 0 and infinity

No hang-on let me be more accurate....it could actually be 0, so somewhere between =to or > 0 and infinity...

In all honesty this is the truth of the matter.....not because I'm bullish or bearish, but it truly is unknown and unpredictable......

Every prediction is reliant on a million ifs, buts and variants.................

good luck punting.....

My tip is upwards, but Im only49.9% sure...

 

[Martha]

OK, found the prediction thread for the DOW year end 2009. Looks like the optimists had it.