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Dow to drop over 4000 pts and other news at 11PM
06-10-2015, 08:15 AM
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#1
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 534
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Dow to drop over 4000 pts and other news at 11PM
Here is a cheery prediction from MarketWatch.
Get ready for a 4,000-point Dow drop
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06-10-2015, 08:21 AM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Bernalillo, NM
Posts: 2,717
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that should keep the talking heads busy. it probably won't stop them from covering the sex lives of the rich and famous, unfortunately.
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"We live the lives we lead because of the thoughts we think" ...Michael O’Neill
"We can cannot compel others to do our will" ....Norman Goldman
"There never is shortage of the gullible to accept the illogical"...Anonymous
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06-10-2015, 08:37 AM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 1,019
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I can almost guarantee a 4000 point drop in the Dow. That's about 22%, which has happened many times in the past. I just can't predict when it will happen.
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06-10-2015, 08:42 AM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 1,660
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Yawn, 11 pm is way past my bed time.
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06-10-2015, 08:52 AM
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#5
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,473
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4000 points? Is that all? Piece o' cake. (yawn!)
2008-2009 was a great training exercise for us and after dealing with that crash and coming out of it nicely (as many of us did), such a drop would seem like child's play.
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Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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06-10-2015, 08:53 AM
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#6
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 312
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Lol. For every prediction of a huge decline, there is an offsetting prediction of a huge gain. All by noted experts in their field. Agree, gives the talking heads something to chatter about.
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06-10-2015, 08:57 AM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 1,653
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Which Roger
I can almost guarantee a 4000 point drop in the Dow. That's about 22%, which has happened many times in the past. I just can't predict when it will happen.
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1987! One day.
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06-10-2015, 09:00 AM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,204
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Garbage, no surprise. While interest rates have an effect on markets long term, the premise from the link is inaccurate to begin with:
Quote:
Are there parallels to this current market environment? Yes — 1987.
The summer that year began with a slow, methodical rise in actual rates. Yet the Fed did not raise the discount rate, even though actual rates suggested otherwise. The fall of 1987 arrived with the stock market having hit an all-time high in late August, unfazed by this unsettled condition.
As it happened, the Federal Reserve was literally forced to raise interest rates. Policymakers were behind the curve severely, just as the Fed is now. The 1987 rising-rate action caused stock prices to tumble more than 30% within two months, including a sharp 20% selloff in October — still among the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s worst one-day percentage declines ever.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_%281987%29
Quote:
Possible causes for the decline included program trading, overvaluation, illiquidity, and market psychology.
A popular explanation for the 1987 crash was selling by program traders, most notably as a reaction to the computerized selling required by portfolio insurance hedges.[10] However, economist Dean Furbush points out that the biggest price drops occurred when trading volume was light.[11] In program trading, computers perform rapid stock executions based on external inputs, such as the price of related securities. Common strategies implemented by program trading involve an attempt to engage in arbitrage and portfolio insurance strategies. As computer technology became more available, the use of program trading grew dramatically within Wall Street firms. After the crash, many blamed program trading strategies for blindly selling stocks as markets fell, exacerbating the decline. Some economists theorized the speculative boom leading up to October was caused by program trading, and that the crash was merely a return to normalcy. Either way, program trading ended up taking the majority of the blame in the public eye for the 1987 stock market crash. U.S. Congressman Edward J. Markey, who had been warning about the possibility of a crash, stated that "Program trading was the principal cause."[12]
New York University's Anna Chen divides the causes into macroeconomic and internal reasons. Macroeconomic causes included international disputes about foreign exchange and interest rates, and fears about inflation. The internal reasons included innovations with index futures and portfolio insurance. I've seen accounts that maybe roughly half the trading on that day was a small number of institutions with portfolio insurance. Big guys were dumping their stock. Also, the futures market in Chicago was even lower than the stock market, and people tried to arbitrage that. The proper strategy was to buy futures in Chicago and sell in the New York cash market. It made it hard – the portfolio insurance people were also trying to sell their stock at the same time.[13]
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No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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06-10-2015, 09:10 AM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 8,363
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That would be time to "buybuybuy!".
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Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
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06-10-2015, 09:15 AM
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#10
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Midwest
Posts: 2,962
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A 4000 pt/22% drop would be the correction we've been expecting for what, a couple of years now. Pretty regular. I was hoping for a larger buying opportunity
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06-10-2015, 09:28 AM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Northern Ohio
Posts: 3,182
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jebmke
1987! One day.
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That was the year I learned not to sell on panics.
I had very little in the market ($2K in an IRA maybe), but one of my office mates did. She and her husband really did panic. They sold all their stocks at a large loss and didn't get back in the market in time.
I was able to look at what they did and see how stupid they had been.
Every time the market tanks I think of them and it helps me to stay invested. This has severed me very well.
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06-10-2015, 09:29 AM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Crownsville
Posts: 3,711
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And, in other news, tomorrow morning it is predicted the Sun will rise in the East!
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06-10-2015, 09:31 AM
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#13
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Charleston, SC
Posts: 534
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If you visit the MarketWatch site often enough, you will see those kinds of headlines are a regular occurrence on there. It's click-bait - nothing more.
What's the old expression......"they've predicted nine of the last 5 recessions"
Keep your powder dry. Have your Exit Strategy planned if it gets really nasty. But relying on MarketWatch for anything more than their daily charts is not a good thing.
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He who thinks he 'knows it all' has a very limited understanding of the word ALL.
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06-10-2015, 09:34 AM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,204
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We had nothing in the market before, but I put everything we had (about $20K) in the market on the Tuesday & Wednesday after Black Monday. The first of several great opportunities. We have been in and stayed in ever since.
I'd rather be lucky than good...
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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06-10-2015, 09:37 AM
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#15
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,223
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The article author is full of manure , but I always welcome sale prices on good, dividend paying equities.
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" A person is smart, but People are dumb, dangerous, panicky animals, and you know it " Agent "K", Men in Black
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06-10-2015, 09:44 AM
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#16
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Gone but not forgotten
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Peru
Posts: 6,335
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...and the winner is.... !!!!
@11:45 ET... the DOW!!!
UP... 260 Pts.
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06-10-2015, 09:46 AM
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#17
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,390
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We all like to think we know more in life than we actually do. This applies to the stock market as much as anything else.
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Understanding both the power of compound interest and the difficulty of getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things. Charlie Munger
The first rule of compounding: Never interupt it unnecessarily. Charlie Munger
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06-10-2015, 09:49 AM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 1,069
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I love a sale.
Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
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06-10-2015, 10:04 AM
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#19
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 731
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Quote:
Originally Posted by imoldernu
...and the winner is.... !!!!
@11:45 ET... the DOW!!!
UP... 260 Pts.
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Keep the doom articles coming!
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06-10-2015, 10:18 AM
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#20
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Crownsville
Posts: 3,711
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Wheeee!
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