Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 02-11-2018, 12:07 PM   #621
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Greenville
Posts: 653
Quote:
Originally Posted by frayne View Post
Suggesting any types need to take the Fisher/annuity route is a bit condescending and disingenuous in my way of thinking.
Suggesting I am being condescending with my statement is, well, condescending. I was just pointing out the "variety" of comments on an extremely long thread.

And as I mentioned on another thread, I STILL think the advice that i have been reading on here for all of the time I have been here, to use Firecalc and see what your current portfolio AA would have done over the last xx years, is very good advice.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but it is much better in most cases not to assume someones complete meaning in a written comment.
Pilot2013 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 02-11-2018, 12:39 PM   #622
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
redduck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: yonder
Posts: 2,851
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pilot2013 View Post
...And then there are those that apparently should never be in the market due to a lack of comfortability who are scared $#!&less and need to go to Fischer investments or something along those lines and purchase their annuities.
Quote:
Originally Posted by frayne View Post
... Suggesting any types need to take the Fisher/annuity route is a bit condescending and disingenuous in my way of thinking.
Condescending, disingenuous and dangerous. With the 30,000+members plus all the guests that visit here, some might actually take you (Pilot2013) up on the Fischer/annuity investment advice.

Taking your advice, a Fischer rep. is scheduled to call me Monday at 8:30 AM. He wants me to have compiled a list of everybody I know that has more than $500,000 to invest. Friendly fellow, sounds like the wants to meet some of my friends and neighbors. Would you (Pilot2013) like to be included on the list?
__________________
When the people shall have nothing more to eat, they will eat the rich--philosopher Jean-Jacques Rousseau
redduck is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2018, 01:35 PM   #623
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Greenville
Posts: 653
Quote:
Originally Posted by redduck View Post
Taking your advice, a Fischer rep. is scheduled to call me Monday at 8:30 AM. He wants me to have compiled a list of everybody I know that has more than $500,000 to invest. Friendly fellow, sounds like the wants to meet some of my friends and neighbors. Would you (Pilot2013) like to be included on the list?
No thanks. As I have said several times, I am a good ways out from having to withdraw, so I am comfortable with my current situation and AA.

Sorry this current market has made everyone so touchy. Not trying to be condescending or (actually) suggest Fischer, just that some may need to re-evaluate their tolerance to market swings.
Pilot2013 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2018, 01:50 PM   #624
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
GravitySucks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 3,040
This is the first test the market has thrown us since I changed my AA to 60/40.
Sleeping well.... So far.
__________________
No, not rich. I am a poor man with money, which is not the same thing"
GravitySucks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2018, 02:03 PM   #625
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 29,905
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
In fact, most millionaires drive a Ford.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kcowan View Post
Great. With 2 Fords and a Nissan, I guess I am in great shape.
No Ford for me at the moment, but a Mercury is close enough. Then, 1 Honda, 1 Nissan, and 1 GM.

The Lamborghini is reserved to sacrifice at the altar of the market god in case he demands it. He just did. Richer people had to sacrifice up to a Rimac in the past.
__________________
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2018, 03:34 PM   #626
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
frayne's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Chattanooga
Posts: 3,293
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pilot2013 View Post
No thanks. As I have said several times, I am a good ways out from having to withdraw, so I am comfortable with my current situation and AA.

Sorry this current market has made everyone so touchy. Not trying to be condescending or (actually) suggest Fischer, just that some may need to re-evaluate their tolerance to market swings.

Hey no big deal and please don't take my comment personal. Actually I could give a sheet less if the DOW tanks 10K or goes up another 10K, it's all just entertainment at this point.
__________________
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. Ezra Solomon
frayne is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2018, 04:21 PM   #627
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
VanWinkle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Morton
Posts: 1,819
Quote:
Originally Posted by frayne View Post
Hey no big deal and please don't take my comment personal. Actually I could give a sheet less if the DOW tanks 10K or goes up another 10K, it's all just entertainment at this point.
Entertainment like fingernails on a chalkboard for some people. I always am aware of people that need their portfolio to draw a decent living in support of SS payments. Not everyone has enough to lose 20% of their stock portfolio, or enough to not own any stocks.
__________________
Retired May 13th(Friday) 2016 at age 61.
VanWinkle is offline   Reply With Quote
Down Day in the Market !
Old 02-11-2018, 04:32 PM   #628
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 107
Down Day in the Market !

What hurts this correction is almost any AA except cash is getting slammed. Last July, I rebalanced to 50/50 And also started a 5 yr CD ladder with ~ 12% of portfolio to hedge against just this. I lost out on the run up but now close to break even and still generating some return.
TNBigfoot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2018, 04:40 PM   #629
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 29,905
I can take this market gyration and still make jokes, not because I am so rich or have a fat pension that I can say I do not care if the market drops 10K points.

It's because I have been through episodes in my life where my own life was endangered, and it was not always for medical reasons.

As I often make jokes here, as long as I am alive and have my 25' motorhome as the housing of last resort, it's not so bad. If one has never been through rough periods, he is more afraid of the unknown. On the other hand, some people are not afraid because they do not know that bad things can happen. That's not good because they are unprepared.

I have in my mind the worst case. It's highly unlikely, from a financial standpoint for me, and I think I can still handle it. Call me the adventurous type, but I am actually not that daring. As I said, I simply went through something like it before.
__________________
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2018, 05:53 PM   #630
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 549
Stocks catching a bid at 10% haircut. See if it sells off to 15% & see how robust the buying is. Still think 2400-2500 is the buy zone. Then the blow off top next year.
Free bird is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2018, 06:22 PM   #631
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 549
Futures are green.
Free bird is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2018, 07:13 PM   #632
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Souschef's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Santa Paula
Posts: 3,417
The thing that blew my mind was my biggest IRA was 796 on 12/31/2017 and closed at 804 on Friday.
But I agree, as my DW pointed out, she felt sorry for anyone forced to cash out now.
__________________
Retired Jan 2009 Have not looked back.
AA 60/35/5 considering SS and pensions a SP annuity
WR 2% with 2SS & 2 Pensions
Souschef is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2018, 07:14 PM   #633
Full time employment: Posting here.
CaliforniaMan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: San Diego
Posts: 880
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
There are many reasons I can think of that does not allow one to fine-tune any method.

There's only so much one can get out of a limited set of stock data. One of the first exercises to a student of statistics is to find out how many tosses it takes to be sure to a certain level that a coin is a fair one (meaning having a 50/50 chance of head/tail). Unless a coin is heavily loaded and obviously wrong, you would not be able to know with just 10 tosses.

The market is not a stationary process. Its characteristics change with time. Take something as fundamental as the P/E. Some people say that high P/E is here to stay, some say it may go back. Who knows? International stocks used to be uncorrelated with US stocks. Globalization now drives them up/down together.

Just now, the people who bet that low volatility is the new paradigm made good money for 2 years, and lost their pants overnight when volatility came back.

So, as long as one does not take an extreme position, he will survive. He may be right one year, then wrong the next. He will not be wiped out.

...
I think the part of your statement I bolded really says it all. We can use historical data to get us into the ballpark of reasonableness. But more than that we are just fitting to data, and not gaining any useful insight. Since the market really is not a stationary process, we can never have but the roughest of ideas of what the "optimal" asset allocation will be. Pick something and relax. Whatever you pick you are more than likely wrong than right anyway. But if you pick well enough you will be dead before you are poor
__________________
Merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily,
Life is but a dream.
CaliforniaMan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-12-2018, 07:30 AM   #634
Full time employment: Posting here.
shotgunner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 503
Last week was a wild ride. Fear of another 2008/2009 is/was in the back of my mind even though I know I would survive and stay retired if it happened. Today I am not thinking about what the market will do. Yesterday I got a phone call from a childhood friend, he told me if I wanted to say goodbye to a woman I grew up with and was close to her family in my youth I needed to get up to a County Hospice House as she has hours to days to live. Stage 4 lung cancer, never smoked. She turns 53 today. Another old friend from childhood will soon be gone. I am sad but I am determined to find some joy today even if it is treating myself to a meal out, a visit with another old friend or both. I am ever thankful for my blessings in life, the stock market in the short term is just drama.
__________________
Never surrender what you really want for what you want right now.
shotgunner is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-12-2018, 07:34 AM   #635
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Pinetops
Posts: 521
Quote:
Originally Posted by shotgunner View Post
Last week was a wild ride. Fear of another 2008/2009 is/was in the back of my mind even though I know I would survive and stay retired if it happened. Today I am not thinking about what the market will do. Yesterday I got a phone call from a childhood friend, he told me if I wanted to say goodbye to a woman I grew up with and was close to her family in my youth I needed to get up to a County Hospice House as she has hours to days to live. Stage 4 lung cancer, never smoked. She turns 53 today. Another old friend from childhood will soon be gone. I am sad but I am determined to find some joy today even if it is treating myself to a meal out, a visit with another old friend or both. I am ever thankful for my blessings in life, the stock market in the short term is just drama.
Your priorities are in order...

Money is only beneficial to enhance or sustain one's quality of life. God isn't interested in the amount of assets we have when we pass.

I
IMATERP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-12-2018, 07:50 AM   #636
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: South central PA
Posts: 2,705
Last week was not unexpected. There was a huge spike in the market toward the end of last year. DS moves more money into his Roth IRA at the end of last year but chose not to invest it immediately. Hes only 25 so is focusing on equities.

He was watching the market and didnt want to jump in. At the end of the second 4% drop, we discussed market correction and he bought some VTI.

I doubt the correction is done, so well see if there is more of a buying opportunity ahead.

The news sources I tap are kind of ho-hum about the market. They talk about the correction, not about recession. Seems appropriate to me. This corrections is a normal thing, not unexpected. And when a 1000 point drop in the Dow is 4% and not 8%, it is not that big a deal.
EastWest Gal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-12-2018, 08:05 AM   #637
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Golden sunsets's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 2,251
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
Its pretty simple.

Above CAPE10 25 my AA is 50/50. Below CAPE10 18 my AA is 60/40. There is a linear ramp between the two, so that at CAPE10 23.5 my AA would be 55/45.

These CAPE10 numbers were picked by looking at 1995 and later graphs, so it already captures some of the accounting changes post 2001. In my AA spreadsheet I have an entry for CAPE10 and I get the data from http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/ .

I generally rebalance annually (if needed) when I withdraw funds and after distributions are paid out, but if the equity market suddenly dropped 20% or more during the year it would probably trigger another rebalance. Its the same as my previous rebalancing scheme although it might have me rebalancing very slightly sooner. If you look at CAPE10 swings they tend to be long and gradual. So I dont expect a large influence on the timing of rebalancing.

Normally AA changes would be very gradual, but if there is a big selloff like 2008, AA would go to 60/40 quickly, and then gradually reduce if the stock market recovered.

Thanks for sharing. My own AA, which is currently at 53/42/5 is set to change annually by 1% from equities to bonds until I reach 50/45/5. There it will sit indefinitely. My rebalance bands are +/- 2.5% and I generally rebalance just after the first of the year. My last rebalance was on 1/3. I've been thinking about introducing a PE component, thus my interest in your methodology.

My most immediate task is to calm DH's fears after reading today's papers and listening to various TV pundits. He just said to me, "Let's sell it all and go gold". He said the same thing in October of 2007🤑🤑🤑


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
__________________
"Luck favors the prepared mind"
Pasteur
Golden sunsets is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-12-2018, 08:33 AM   #638
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Upstate
Posts: 1,746
Quote:
Originally Posted by Golden sunsets View Post
My most immediate task is to calm DH's fears after reading today's papers and listening to various TV pundits. He just said to me, "Let's sell it all and go gold". He said the same thing in October of 2007🤑🤑🤑


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
I know there are a lot of people like this...but why is it an all or none decision?
copyright1997reloaded is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-12-2018, 08:33 AM   #639
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
frayne's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Chattanooga
Posts: 3,293
Quote:
Originally Posted by shotgunner View Post
Last week was a wild ride. Fear of another 2008/2009 is/was in the back of my mind even though I know I would survive and stay retired if it happened. Today I am not thinking about what the market will do. Yesterday I got a phone call from a childhood friend, he told me if I wanted to say goodbye to a woman I grew up with and was close to her family in my youth I needed to get up to a County Hospice House as she has hours to days to live. Stage 4 lung cancer, never smoked. She turns 53 today. Another old friend from childhood will soon be gone. I am sad but I am determined to find some joy today even if it is treating myself to a meal out, a visit with another old friend or both. I am ever thankful for my blessings in life, the stock market in the short term is just drama.
+1 and very sorry to hear about your friend.
__________________
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. Ezra Solomon
frayne is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-12-2018, 08:39 AM   #640
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
redduck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: yonder
Posts: 2,851
Quote:
Originally Posted by IMATERP View Post
Your priorities are in order...

Money is only beneficial to enhance or sustain one's quality of life. God isn't interested in the amount of assets we have when we pass.
I
No, but my children are.
__________________
When the people shall have nothing more to eat, they will eat the rich--philosopher Jean-Jacques Rousseau
redduck is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
T-Theory - Secular Bear Market - Market down into June/July? dex FIRE and Money 8 08-26-2010 06:48 PM
Pay down existing mortgage or save up for big down payment? Andre1969 Young Dreamers 13 04-29-2010 10:05 AM
Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits dex FIRE and Money 32 03-16-2007 04:46 PM
How do you deal with a down market day like today? dante60093 FIRE and Money 31 07-17-2004 01:17 PM
Buy House Now w/Low Down or Save Bigger Down? BigMoneyJim Young Dreamers 11 07-14-2004 04:23 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 11:48 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.